Following is a URL to a custom starting date in my first account,
with these types of trades. I'm not perfect, occasionally my stoplosses aren't perfect. The volatility last week has been very large. I have traded various position dimensions to accomodate for this. When I start seeing 10-20 pip 1 min bars in my chart, I scale . Oanda hasn't had a regular spread for your morning session all week. This makes me wary also.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/KJKr...lp-trial/31412
If everybody is a trend trader, where's the edge...
Some countertrend illuions...
After much work and screen watching, I discovered an indior that offers trades similar to the exhaustion plays I had been watching every tick looking for. I've been trading it for 6 weeks, through a few of the very volatile markets we've seen this year. Frankly, I can't see how I could have worse markets for this kind of system than what we have had lately.
I'm hoping for advancement on quieter days, with less huge moves.
It has been great for approximately 5.5percent more than 6 days, without a losing days.
I'm generally in a trade for 4 minutes or less. My profits targets are half of my stop losses.
You understand when you examine your chart, see whatever it's you see, and ultimately enter your trade with the trend? Then soon after, price moves against you enough to carry you out, and seems convincingly as if you were incorrect. I feel that is the dealer, with their order book, and possibly low quantity at the moment, they trick you from your trade. Minutes later, price continues to move in your anticipated direction. . .but alas, you're stopped out. This occurs often on 1 min timeframes. I'm trying to ch those motions.
I performed with the Awesome Oscillator and discovered some settings that work for me. I've purposely blacked out those. I really don't wish to drag anyone down with me if that doesn't work within the long term. Play with it, find what works for you. You will have more confidence in it.
I trade the crosses contrary to the leadership of the cross. It crosses down, I buy. It crosses up, I sell. The awesome oscillator lags a bit versus a moving avg crossover because it's built differently. Basically, price heads in a way for awhile, after some time, maybe it's due for a retracement or maybe you're earning money off traders who are entering this trend too late. Quick scalps.
Check out the charts below.
From The Way of this, Curtis Faith...
. . .over the brief term there's generally more motion against a trade shot at a breakout than that there is in the course of the breakout. This is one of the reasons trading breakouts can be quite difficult plogically. It is also one of the reasons you'll be able to earn money working with a countertrend trading fashion by betting on the breakout not holding and in favor of a bounce off of support or resistance. There's a good edge for these egies at the very short term.
That's stuck with me because I initially read it, nearly 2 years back.
After arriving to Forex, intent on being a really brief time frame trader, I've leaned toward countertrend methods.
If one of the simpler styles, generally accepted, is more time frames trading with the trend, then perhaps in the event that you must trade short term, countertrend is the manner.
I've been working toward what I need in a trading system throughout this journal. (Greater triumph %, short time frames)
apart from my revenge blow-up trades distorting the account worth, I've had some success.
Let us take a look at my mechanical entry as of late.
Since we were in between the fundamental pivot and S1 virtually all afternoon, I did not have great egies and was trying to formulate something. I drew some trend lines (--dashes--) but I am very skeptical of 1M TF trend lines. I waited until about 2PM EST, and since the market flattened out...I devised a plan around the current range. The purple lines are equally my sell and buy points. I drew people following 2PM and waited for price to come to me. It took approximately 30 minutes, and I got a short opportunity, but to tell you the truth. . .after I entered it did not move quickly enough for me. The atmosphere comes from doing many of these kind of transactions ( = screen time ), it did not move how other profitable trades such as this go. I scalped a fast pip profit. The price actually went a couple more pips down afterward a fast push to a new large. . .then falling into a range again.
I formed a plan, did my best with the commerce. . .sometimes it just doesn't work out.
Appears as if Buyers have entered and they're winning. I tried to get long and actually, lost some pips. . .then a short (to feel out the market), right after 13:20 on the chart, there is a tiny spike up which I must cover for a loss. The buyer remains about it seems. I go long again, and ch a mini-breakout, I take profits too soon, because it is the afternoon. I'm typically counter-trend range trading...I anticipate larger moves in the morning.
Have you taken a look in your style, system, or EA and it is drawdown?
From a professional standpoint, a drawdown of 30 percent or more (any peak-to-valley) would shake most investors. Searching through http://www.autumngold.com, I discovered some rigorously Foreign Exchange CTAs or money. It was no real surprise that the ones having the most capital had very low drawdowns ( lt;10 percent on almost any year).
The other thing to consider is the fundamental math of larger drawdowns and the way they affect your overall yields.
Example: Starting balance $10,000
today sustain a 30 percent drawdown - equilibrium $7,000.
What do you have to earn to get back to break-even?
You've got to have a profit of 42% on your $7,000 to get back to $10,000.
I'd love to have lt;10 percent drawdown from any equity summit. . .while making an attractive yield. I'm hoping high win-percentage scalping (although with smaller edge) will facilitate this.
The link in my signature is access to my system page in http://myfxbook.com. If you haven't checked out that website, I highly recommend it. It's free and excellent for analyzing your transactions.
I'd exchange the Asian session Open if it were not for the Chinese New Year bank holidays continuing. Last Sunday evening was tough and I would expect quantity to be similar (see Day 5, Part 1 post). I work evenings most days of the week and Sundays and Wednesdays are my only chances to exchange Forex in another time (evening EST).
The morning is volatile, far more than the afternoon. We had news at 8:30AM EST (Building Permits, Housing Starts), and 9:15AM (Industrial Production). Today I was awake and avoided the widening spreads at those times.
This was one of those days when you really think your pre-set stop reduction is too tight. There was one occasion where I actually wished to eliminate my stop-loss, but I didn't. Up 4 pips to down 4 pips inside the exact same moment, it seemed I had been taking losses and trying to let winners run a little while they really reversed on me.
EventuallyI took a peek at the 5 minute TF chart, and asked myself What is the trend? It was totally clear, undoubtedly, from the European open at 3 AM EST until today, downtrend... all the way. So I wished to be short, but I needed to get short and not get stopped outside. After a small up retracement (when I attempted to scalp a very long ), I shut out for a small reduction and reversed. We didn't create any new neighborhood high even though it looked strong at the moment.
The short went in the cash fast, that's always a good sign. At one point I had been up roughly 12 pips, and took a retracement to almost horizontal. . .but I held. The trend is down, you are early, you'll make more than 12 pips... I told myself. They (the big boys) are creating it as hard as possible for you to maintain your short. It didn't take too long, I had my pips again and it had been unable to move lower. . .then it broke a previous recent candle low (I had my mouse pointer put at this point). If it breaks here, it is likely to fall apart, I had said out loud. I got one right, I held it for almost 40 pips. Can I pay in the low? No of course not, it preceded to go lower, to the S1 pivot.
At a while, you have to take some cash off the desk, and that's what I did.
I will probably sit-out the afternoon, we've FOMC Meeting Minutes released at 2 PM EST, and with no European market volume, I imagine the banks and large boys will have lunch and wait for that discharge. I will put at the screen time and watch the activity however. If I see a perfect set up, clear range trade with very little risk, I may take it.
Chart of the big scalp, left-side is where I had been getting chopped up earlier.
Traded 8:00AM-10:45AM EST.. Fast market today, more than I am utilized to, I could sense it from the very first couple transactions. Was down pips following the next trade, and never recovered. I also got stopped out earlier 8:30AM news (MFG Index), once the spread widened to ten pips to the news release while I was in a transaction. I've traded a lot of afternoons I've forgotten the risks from the morning. The fx market was fast right before the stock market opens also (9:25AM EST).
At my best, trying to fight back, I had been down perhaps 6 pips on the day and we had a breakout from R2 straight to R3. I had been trying to exchange itmuch quicker market than I am utilised to. I knew my max stop was struck over twice and finally found myself down 23 pips.
Time to stop for the day. Given up profits I made last week. . .but this is part of this procedure for getting back into the swing of things. I need these experiences, particularly of the volatility of this first half of the trading day.
My last transaction, as I attempted to shut out, double-filled from Oanda (delayed from the stop-loss) along with my guide depart. I shut it for a small reduction (sigh).
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