Can you profit in a ranging market? - Page 3
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Thread: Can you profit in a ranging market?

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Ever heard the saying'no news is good news' well that surely doesn't appear to apply from the area of FX!

    Frank if you say inventories panicked and demand for USD jumped does that imply there was a market off on wall st and the money placed into buying usd as a safe harbor? Sounds reasonable. If that's the case would be a temp 24hr item or will that price now'grip'. Or will the demand for usd persist for a few days?

    Clearly this pair has two sides is there a european equivalent of NFP etc that has a similar influence on this pair?

    Also when...
    This summer, since I have had the time to concentrate on learning a bit about intraday momentum, I have noticed the dow and eurusd prefer to move together when there are enormous moves.

    My guess would be that capital tied up in equities and commodities ( they have lots of demand whenever there is risk appetite ) flows out of those asset classes into USD. I also think that it makes sense that if international equity markets are fearful, international investors may be inclined to purchase Tbills that require USD. Hence the surprisingly negative trade balance figures that this morning caused equities from the US to market off and this drove demand for USD.

    This is just guessing and observations that may or might not be accurate. Correlations can and do change and that's burned me earlier. That's why I prefer to try and have a gauge on sentiment before turning into technicals.

    And steve my man two heads are better than I feel like its a thousand piece puzzle and it will be solved more quickly with more people working on it.

  2. #22
    Oh and around eur market movers I am not so familiar because they occur while I am fast asleep.

    If I had to guess I would say that unemployment, inflation measures like CPI and PPI would be big... ECB minutes and addresses are things that I wake up and notice that some sexy shit was dropped as a consequence of. General economic news out of the united kingdom and Germany will also be great likely.

  3. #23
    Two heads indeed, sounds good. I'll start tracking european news and some other effect on the london open and early hrs for eur/usd. The asian session was particuarly active recently and following major moves in NY it makes sense for any corrections to start there when NY closes on a high/low.

    London has just opened and has instantly broken the 10hour long asian up-trend which started with a double bottom. When you look at the 1H chart, price was far away in the 50sma this pullback from 1.2830 has been soo inevitable.

    Price has just moved 60ish pips down in the previous 20mins and if you look at the 1m chart you will see a beautiful lil pullback after price breaks down via 1.2912 giving a clear entrance signal for that movement down. Additionally there are two candles hitting a solid wall at 1.2906 a great confirmation indiion.

    The one thing which I don't comprehend is does the dow go eurusd or the other way round?! Btw he is not my dog, me and gf are just looking after him for a few weeks. He's great tho, you truly get to see where you reside when you've got a dog to walk everyday, we're next to the forrest therefore it's a holiday for him too. S are nice but you can't walk them. Suppose you can try?

  4. #24

    Just a 10 pip wide channel here however, the underlying tendency on 5m was down and sure enough that the breakout was to the south west - 20pips from top of range.

    If we say there are 4 peaks for this range which you would have recognized it as a range by peak 3 and surely peak 4 then a market at those prices could have been a b/e followed closely by 20pip win - or 10pip based on TP.

    A few things to consider - price sometimes breaks range lines with a pip or two so SL should be perhaps 4pips above range line here, or are lines incorrectly drawn? Also should place order as soon as price touches line as can reverse quickly. To get a risk of 4pips 20 have been around the table here.

    Edit- price has bounced back into top of range region so TP at the 1st Fib would have been great for 18pips or so.

  5. #25
    Since NY open there've been three pin bars, an inside bar, and an outdoor pub. Just like five seconds ago another trap pub formed. (all of these at the swing high/lo s)

    3 of the PBs aren't perfect (the open/close weren't within the body of the previous bar) --such as the one that only closed that is not on the chart I posted.

    The perpendicular line is NY open. Now I really don't believe we would have identified the range from technicals however, however, the range might have been anticipated from the lack of news coming out.

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