Cycle Trading
1 2 3

thread: Cycle Trading

  1. #1

    Cycle Trading

    I have been away from trading for about 6 months. Only got back into it armed with some new techniques and philosophies.

    Normally, I keep a diary at moneytec, but I thought I would try one here instead. Ive discovered that keeping a diary keeps me on my feet and provides a chance to get feedback and counsel from others. The generosity of those I have met through my books and forums accounts for the majority of whom I know. Studs such as Akuma, soso, Stoxx, Xtsunami, Bear, and some others I am probably offending by denying.

    First up is short term commerce on the GBP pair. I have attached a 15 minute chart of exactly what I am looking at for this particular trade. I have been shorting it greatly the last week or so and now I think it's time to get some steady retracement and consolidation. I visit some range for going against the down trend, but I am treading carefully. Ive already taken profit after. I waitied for a cycle time to come up and now I am long again at 2.0217. I visit the posibility of a tight range downward, so I am watching very very attentively. But when the cycle of time proves to be significant one, I believe 2.2032 is highly probable in another 6 months or so. The close of the magenta forecast line is at a subdivision cycle stage.

    My overall appearance is a dollar rally for another 20 some strange trading days, so a lot of my transactions is to the brief side on the GBP and EUR. Occaionally I will throw in some Gold when the installation is there.

    I also keep a blog at http://4xcycletrader.blogspot.com/ which will probably go to more details on the real techniques.

  2. #2
    Akuma and soso are very good with the esoteric stuff. I am amazed by them. And considering what Akuma simply went through, it disturbs me even bothered coming back to trading at all. And training for triathalons of things. He places him 2 activities above Lance A.! Anywho, I'm hoping some of the other cycle and moment traders post in this journal too. I know they're out there. The beginnertrader forum is kinda slow, but with some exposure, the action will pick up.

    BTW, feel free to chime in each time and often. I want to see other people's analysis and ideas.

  3. #3
    I got out with profit on a trailing stop at 2.0230. I received the price target wrong, but the time target right. Price shattered resistince that was intermediate at that pub and spiked upward. I also missed a great chance to short and trade with this trend. I am on the sidelines till I get a short opportunity.

    Attached is an updated 15 min. chart. See the spike up and break through support on the time goal. Attached is a 1h chart showing one of the reasons. Price squared up 315* of price and time. This last move down puts price at 360* of price. Price will likely go up somewhat and drop back down to fully finish the square of 360* of price and time. If I get a signal to brief, then the conclusion of the square is the price and time goal.


  4. #4
    After putting up some prediction lines, I a found reason to short, so that I did at 2.0150.

    The yellow and aqua prediction lines are mirrored bicycles from certain points in the past. Because bicycles invert, these don't always show leadership, but they really do reveal time. When they flip, it is not uncommon for price to flip. Sometimes a little, but a lot of times drastically. Both look like they inverted at the shirt of the night. I don't use them often, but they can be good for finding turning points. I have discounted some of the more observable prediction turning points.

    Thumbnail is clickable.

  5. #5
    Price turned onto the time line. Since I'm at the office right now, I can't actually be seeing these short term trades. I shut the short for a few little profit and now I'm long. I believe there's likely to be a reversal on that final pink vert according to a geometric pattern of price containment I penciled in that I will show later if it comes to fruition. For there for a revesal, price needs to move up or down and Im putting on a little trade saying long now. I'm talking little small. Then go bigger on the time line for a brief. Or when my long gets stopped out, go bigger on a long on the time line.

    Extended at 2.035

  6. #6
    Needless to say, my little long did not last long in any way. But, everything else turned out since I thought it could. However, I missed my window short and was left on the sidelines. Below are just two clickable thumbnails of this ellipse I had drawn out. The termination was lifeless on price and time, though price failed to breakout from the floor a little premature. This fast drop effects my additional cycle predictions in that my 32 daily pub projection remains there, but it's currently a goal into the upside.



  7. #7
    I am getting a lot of hits on a fib pub count down to 8/22. I believe that it'll be a brief prospect and a top. So I will sit back and wait.


  8. #8
    Member ina99's Avatar
    98
    I'm getting a lot of hits on a fib pub count down to 8/22. I believe it'll be a high and a short prospect that is solid. So I will sit back and wait.

    Wow, I must say, you are one of the most edued Gann enthusiasts I've ever seen in FX... I'll pay close attention and see what I could learn from you... Thanks for posting this diary.

  9. #9
    Thanks Scott. I have got a long way to go in contrast to the Gann fans I cavort with, but let you know. It. In trading I have done hardest thing with far. That includes designing and developing a full blown system in Excel with live charting and flashing lights.

    I do not do directly up Gann stuff. I infuse a lot of other things like Fib counts, geometric patterns, and also some other all-natural cycles. Unfold the space.

  10. #10
    The spike last week was the last bit of the puzzle for the 1h chart ellipse. I had been off a little and the spike gives 3 points of contact to finalize the ellipse. Triangulating a point in 3D space. If it plays out as I hope, it will also provide the root for expansion and decomposition cycles moving forward.

    Right now there seems to be a triangle forming. I haven't assessed a news calendar in ages, so I have no idea what is waiting at the point. I am almost expecting a Ross Hook from it. (A fake breakout.) That might be in line with my current daily chart analysis.

    clickable thumbnail

  •