Shorting forum members
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thread: Shorting forum members

  1. #1
    Junior Member abap's Avatar
    28

    Shorting forum members

    No elaborate indiors. No price action voodoo. Just do the opposite of the audience. This most likely will work best for those who can hold their trades for days, even weeks.

    If you go to the'trades' section of the site you'll see there is a section that outlines the positions of all the forum associates that have commerce explorers running to get their live accounts. It shows the amount of traders that are long/short a tool in addition to how many lots are in play for the bulls and bears.
    The data is similar to what you'd find on Dukascopy's sentiment charts, and also normally the bull/bear prejudice is around the same, with slightly different proportions. Unfortunately there is not one for XAUUSD or OIL.

    One thing you'll see is that (apparently) most traders have not heard the saying,'the trend is your friend'. Or at least, they don't think it.
    The egy is simply this - commerce against whatever the majority of traders do over on the positions/live accounts section. Let's analyze the current scenario.

    EURUSD
    Right about 60 percent of traders are short the Euro. This, regardless of the fact that it's been trending, strongly bullish since November this past year, and before that, with only a couple of months dip, in December 2016. It looks bullish to me personally MN, W1, D1, H4, H1, M30 and M15. Just on M5 is there some doubt. Sure, it may be headed for a dip soon, but so far the traders who've been waiting for it (according to FXFactory) are losing at a rate of -4.5%. Euro bears are losing their trades at nearly 3x the rate of bulls. When the Euro spiked yesterday, as I had been watching the bull/bear article, the amount of bulls actually diminished. In other words, the more painful the transaction, the more people got into it. Human nature or trader nature?
    Conclusion: Proceed Euro.

    GBPUSD
    Pretty much everything I wrote about Fiber applies to Cable. Proceed, as 60 percent ofcliqforexmembers are brief. This time they are losing at a rate 4x higher than bulls.

    USDJPY
    The yen situation is a little more complied as it has not been definitely trending on D1 and up. It has been in a small range, but has been weakening with USD for the last few days. What docliqforextraders believe? Well, they think it's a fantastic long trade though it's a little closer than cable/fiber with only 58 percent bulls. Neither the bears nor the bulls are creating any positive returns on this particular one as both are losing -1.9 and -2.5 percent respectively while trading the yen. Down for a week, and that range for just two weeks earlier that - yeah, let's buy me some of that, seems like the thought procedure. Well, maybe they're right as it's been showing signs of life. Also,cliqforexis only losing twice the winning trades with this one, and they are actually out-winning that the yen bears with a factor of 2. This egy however calls for us to do the opposite of the audience. Go brief yen.

    USDCHF
    Even more certainty concerning this particular one - 65 percent dollar bulls. Perhaps this is a reaction to the SNB statement saying that interference in currency appreciation is obviously an alternative. Most of us recall 2015, correct? Let's look at the chart. Hmm, a tight range historically, with no clear prejudice on D1. On H4 although it's clearly bearsh and continues to be slumping strongly all month. Certainlycliqforexmembers anticipate a change back to the top of the range, and they're probably right, that is going to happen. Not before they lose their shirts though. Go brief USDCHF.

    USDCAD
    Here is an interesting situation in which the ratio of bulls/bears is ordinary - about 56 percent bulls, but the money in play is outlandishly lopsided, with 80 percent of all lots being bullish USDCAD. Does anyone know why? It can't be a carry trade. It is a dreadful carry trade. Please provide me a learnings internet! Thus, how are the 80 percent of bull trades in USDCAD doing? Well, surprise surprise USDCAD has been firmly bearish since last Spring, and following a short rally it's still heading down. Loonie bears are losing triple that which their bull counterparts are bringing in, although the bears are only breaking even on profits. I understand what you're thinking. NAFTA! Trump! Hey, we get it. He knows the art of the offer. He has got a frightening stare, and also the CAD PM would fit right in with a Korean boy group. But we'll stay long that the loonie, so go brief USDCAD.

    AUDUSD
    In case you're brief USDCAD, going long AUDUSD is basically exactly the same thing and now you've got excessive correlation risk, but hey,cliqforexmembers are such a powerful (and enjoyable ) contrarian signal let's just say exactly what the hell. Just 39% are bullish the Aussie, despite its crazy bullish look from M30 up to D1. Aussie bears are losing 4x up to the bulls, but strangely, they are winning double up to the bulls. I should have taken more stats courses to comprehend how that functions. Perhaps that is the carry trade impact? Bulls maintain their trades open longer, hence winning often? What matters is they are managing to earn a meagre 0.2% profit versus the -2.0percent of bears. Long AUDUSD.

    NZDUSD
    Same as AUDUSD except it's nearly comical (or tragic?) Exactly what kiwi bears are losing. -8.3%!

    GBPJPY
    Obviously bullish since May 2016 so which side can you anticipatecliqforexmembers to be siding with? You guessed it! Da Bears. Although it's fairly close to even, the bulls are winning an astonishing 9.2% profit with this transaction. Long GBPJPY.

    So I guess I will trade this in a demo account and upgrade in a month or two. I would not expect this to generate quick profits.
    Wishing you prosperity.

  2. #2
    Junior Member Alejandraaa15's Avatar
    1
    hello traders . If you're going to examine the cot report it will follow as well as what's being said. Euro climbing for 3 months .the two reports together could give you aliitle advantage .test for yourself

  3. #3
    Loe this exact funny (nothing personal, hope all works out for you at the very best way) =-RRB- you thinkcliqforexmembers creating market moves? Or market manufacturers care aboutcliqforexmembers conclusions? However could be you think mostcliqforexmembers do not know how to transaction and take the wrong side most of the time =)

  4. #4
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    Sounds like a very interesting notion... Attempting to replie the market maker's role... Albeit with no benefits they have (Spread, market neutrality etc.. )
    I'd suggest to correct your position sizing depending on the opinion percentage. By way of instance if eurusd has 70% and 30% short, you've got 1 lot brief, if that percentage varies to 60/40, you reduce your position to 0.5 lot etc.. .

  5. #5
    Junior Member abap's Avatar
    28
    However might be you think mostcliqforexmembers do not know how to exchange and take the incorrect side the majority of the time =-RRB-
    Yes, it's that one. However it's not restricted to justcliqforexand I am just as guilty of being clueless as anybody. I think that it's either that most traders do not know how to perform it properly or that most large (smart) cash positions itself in opposition to the smaller players in order that they can carry out their company in the very best price. They utilize the prevailing price notions for their benefit.

    I do wonder why so many traders trade against the trend though, that just sounds. . .odd.

  6. #6
    This reminds me of the Odd Lot Index in the stock market.
    An odd lot is less than 100 shares.
    Only the little guys buy odd lots.
    An index is published of the number of odd lot buys versus sells. If the little guys are buying, you wish to market. If they are selling, you want to buy.

    I utilize the concept trading news.
    Look at the previous 30 min prior to a news release, on a 1 Min chart. If the pair goes upward, you wish to brief the discharge. If it moves downward, go long on the release. Try it.
    The concept is the same, most people are wrong, most of the time.

  7. #7
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    Then be cautioned that there are reasons why retail traders shed. It could possibly be a result of overleveraging, taking profits early/holding losers for too long etc.. .

  8. #8
    It's correct that there is many reasons why retail traders lose. Fact however is that the majority of them lose whatever reason. I have been following similar indior for a very a long time and I must admit it works. Not but surprisingly frequently. If you keep in mind that markets can be incorrect longer you can keep solvent, I do not see any reason why this could not be a proper tool or a means of trading.

  9. #9
    Junior Member Bertabn98's Avatar
    4
    When allcliqforexmembers will be trading your system, it balances itself out and will collapse. But I wish you luck.

  10. #10
    Junior Member Rpl3000's Avatar
    6
    Of course big players buy when retail traders sell they have the funding to be able to buy into purchasing pressure.

    I believed this was a simple notion people knew?

    I believe its good to take the data with a pinch of salt then see if you can picutre anything on your own charts to corrispond with all the prejudice.
    For eg
    EURUSD
    Symmetrical triangle has been forming since the initial up movement also on a smaller basis there's now an upward channel, ive projected my symetrical triangle to drive to 1.265 too 1.270

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