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Thread: Guppy Trades

  1. #21
    I would say, Yen remains a risk-free currency, bothering times like this with Pakistani nuclear heads and most importantly -- everybody will eye . However, to a certain stage, oil would be impacted.

    I'm quite comfortable going long on guppy, largely due to carry trade (but I would say I'm still a daytrader).

    So how many lots would you usually exchange? Don't answer if you are uncomfortable. ; )

    Perhaps you have heard of Nicotina?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    yea man

    I do not really focus on fundamentals...I peek at the calendar once a day.

    However, I think that the yen will appreciate against the majors for 2 reasons:

    1. Risk aversion - sub-par emergency remains in the process of being cared for.
    2. Carry trade won't restart until #1 is over...I'd say mid-2008

    I remember the days when you're able to just ditch 10 complete lots on gbpjpy, and watch it go up day after day after day...

  2. #22
    Id remember trying that. But I'm just so used to trading my methods that I stopped it after a few days.

    Dimension of my orders? Depends on the stop loss

    I use this formula

    (account equilibrium x % risk)/SL x 10,000 units...I believe it is it...I programmed it into glow and now I can't remember how it goes.

    I keep risk between 1 - 5%

    so ya....my standing size varies quite a bit.

  3. #23
    I'm curious to learn about your formulation, but nevermind if you can not recall. I'm getting the hang of it today, although the toughest to master at the outset for me was trade discipline.

    It is just amazing how I look at charts right now = GBP/USD and Guppy. GBP/USD is peaking because of weak USD (probably from Pakistan problem) and GBP/USD tanking down (? strong Yen).

    Still, we've got to look at the technicals.


    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ya, i remember trying that. But I'm just so utilized to trading my methods that I stopped it after a couple of days.

    Dimension of my orders? Is based on the stop loss

    I use this formula

    (account balance x percent risk)/SL x 10,000 units...I think this is it...I programmed it into excel and now I can not recall how it goes.

    I keep risk between 1 - 5%

    so ya....my standing size varies quite a bit.

  4. #24
    There you go. Are you currently able to short this? Very downward tendency that is excellent. I was in the office when guppy dived.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    yea man

    I don't really focus on fundamentals...I glance at the calendar once a day.

    Nevertheless, I think the yen will appreciate against the majors for two reasons:

    1. Risk aversion - prime crisis is in the process of being cared for.
    2. Carry trade will not resume till #1 is over...I would say mid-2008

    I still remember the days when you're able to just dump 10 complete lots on gbpjpy, and watch it go up day after day after day...

  5. #25
    nah, I stayed up the night before, I was tired, so I chose to head to sleep once I closed my position

    but this is what I might have done even if I had been to exchange....

    Recap:
    I exited my first position at point a because:
    1. Price broke above the trendline I brought....which, because I cannot seem to replie it today, must have been a dodgy and most likely incorrect one.
    2. Price closed back above the blue ma the pub after, I might have exited there if I had not the pub before.

    Then, I drew an up trendline using the 9:15 pub (it's the blue pin bar in my chart)
    working with this trendline, I might have observed the bars hoping to break back above, but did not (shaded area ). I would have starting looking for another chance to brief it.

    This chance would come in the pub marked using the green arrow (or the one before). Reasons:
    1. Price retreated from the red upward trendline, and
    2. Large bearish pub, shut below blue trendline (along with the ma, but the ma's not that important, I use it as an excess confirmation)

    stop loss would be set in 226.10

    today, exit:
    since it's friday, I might have exited in the pub marked b because:
    1. Pin pub before
    2. bullish....engulfing? Can't recall the name of the pattern, but big bullish pub following a pin....usually a change.

    So, that trade would have return 60 pips after spread and slippage.

    not too shabby. . .but then again...I did not execute, so all this talk is just talk

    W

  6. #26
    Bullish piercing pattern.

    I was on it until I go to work, but that time I was riding on a reduction (that transient bullishness at 4-8 am), so I needed to adjust and be very stingy with my profit at just 20 pips, I moved to work. TP was struck and proceeded to tank while I am at work. I am imagining I could have made more if I was in the home, but yeah, everyone's smart after the reality (that your 60 pip TP is very attainable though).

    On second thought, the bearish candles (or pubs ) have large shadows/wicks, that could have scared me and exited also (though it actually was a sterile downtrend based on Heikin I).

    I like your trendlines btw.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    nah, I stayed up the night before, I was exhausted, so I chose to go to sleep after I closed my place

    but this is exactly what I might have done even if I were to exchange....

    Recap:
    I exited my initial position at stage a because:
    1. Price broke above the trendline I brought....which, since I cannot appear to replie it now, have to have been a dodgy and most likely incorrect one.
    2. Price closed back over the blue ma the bar after, I might have exited there when I hadn't the bar before.

    After that, I drew an up trendline using the 9:15 bar (it is the blue pin bar in my chart)
    working with this trendline, I might have observed the pubs trying to break back over, but didn't (shaded region). I might have starting looking for a different opportunity to short it.

    This opportunity would come at the bar marked using the green arrow (or even the one before). Reasons:
    1. Price retreated from the red upward trendline, and
    2. Large bearish bar, shut beneath blue trendline (and the ma, but the ma's not that important, I use it like an extra confirmation)

    stop loss could be put at 226.10

    now, exit:
    as it is friday, I might have exited at the bar marked b because:
    1. Pin bar before
    2. bullish....engulfing? Can't remember the name of the pattern, but large bullish bar following a pin....usually a reversal.

    Sothat commerce would have return 60 pips after spread and slippage.

    not too shabby. . .but then again...I didn't implement, so all this discussion is just talk

    W

  7. #27
    thanks man.

    I used to exchange exclusively with heiken ashi. However, now that I'm starting a hedge fund, I think investors could be sketched out if I told them I use some lagging indior to float their millions....

    Therefore why I'm attempting to phase out indiors and use price action.

  8. #28
    Wow, it must be a fascinating feeling trading other investor's cash.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    thanks man.

    I used to trade solely with heiken ashi. But now that I am starting a hedge fund, I think investors would be sketched out if I told them I use any lagging indior to float their millions....

    Hence why I am attempting to phase out indiors and utilize price action.

  9. #29
    We'll see

    have not begun yet. Still working out the things with the attorneys

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I'm interested to know about your formula, but nevermind if you can't remember.
    20pips. . .This is how you'd do it. .
    AccountBalance*(RiskPercentage/100)/(SL*PIPValue)=Lotsize
    PIPValue = worth of a single pip in deposit currency for a single lot of base currency.
    Sl = No of Pips that your SL is off from you entry price.

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