JPY Cross Pairs -
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thread: JPY Cross Pairs

  1. #41
    3 Attachment(s) Real-Time Technical Analysis for JPY Cross Pairs:

    Measure two charts are real-time technical analysis for USD/JPY on the Daily and Hourly time frames


    If you'd like to see how this analysis functions you may do this: http://www.investing.com/technical/u...hnical-studies
    https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...ncleforex.html
    https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...ng-system.html
    https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...em-indior.html

  2. #42
    This one was composed in October. I knew these are somewhat old but I thought they might still interest those who commerce JPY cross pairs.

    Http://sovereign-investor.com/2012/1...-will-decline/
    By Sean Hyman, Editor of Currency Cross Trader


    Occasionally in life it may seem like when something was a certain way for a very long time that it will always be that way. It's like the brain has a inclination to become conditioned into a situation and decides that it will always be that way.

    Well, investors get the same manner about a stock or index that has been out of favor for quite a while. They could never appear to imagine a day when it will return.

    Take, for Example, Japan's Nikkei index. It has been down for over two years in a row, much as most other stock indices have rebounded.

    But really, it is possible to look farther back to the larger tendency and see that Japan's Nikkei was among the first indexes to top out. The Nikkei topped out in early 2006, although many other stock indexes topped out in the end of 2007 or early 2008.

    So, the Nikkei has really been trading reduced for approximately six-and-a-half years. Well, you could see where it would be easy to get sucked into the thinking that those stocks are never coming back. However, it's simply not true.

    There are two or three things changing that will install the Nikkei for its first real rally in years.

    A Change in Direction for the Yen

    The first thing is that the shift in the yen. You see, the Japanese yen was strengthening in a big way ever since July of 2007, and it finally appeared in October of 2011 but exchanged marginally sideways through January of this year.

    From that point, the yen has begun to descend. In fact, let us take a peek at the Nikkei in the weekly, three-year chart below with the Japanese yen plotted below it.

    2012: The Very First Down Year for the Yen in Years


    Why is the collapse of the yen important? Japan's Nikkei is filled with major exporters like Toyota, Honda, Mazda and Sony.

    In the viewpoint of an exporter, you would like a inexpensive currency. If your merchandise seem to be more economical because a foreigner's money goes farther, then they're more inclined to buy more of your products.

    However, if your currency is more powerful, your products will appear more expensive to foreigners and you will sell fewer. So what the currency is doing is a huge deal. It's among the determinants of these companies will do.

    Quite simply, when dealing with a strong yen, they have the wind in their faces, and if they have a falling yen, these firms finally get the wind to their backs.

    If you've ever ridden a bicycle in the end, then you realize it makes a big difference if the end is with you or against you.

    It's the same with these firms. With absolutely no additional changes, their performance and outcomes will vary widely depending upon the value of the yen.

    What Stimulus Means for its Yen

    The other thing which has changed in the favor of the Nikkei is that Japan has instituted an ”asset purchase program.” A pretty large one at that ... to the tune of 80 trillion yen. Then, on Friday, Japan declared 750 billion yen ($9.4 billion) of stimulus to increase growth. The measure was undertaken after bond traders' concerns over government spending raised fears of a disruption in a December debt sale.

    This will probably be helpful for Japan's stocks for now and bad because of its currency.

    So between the stimulus progr and the shift in the direction of the yen, Japanese stocks have a opportunity to reverse course for the first time in more than 6 years.

    With that in mind, let us consider an ETF that tracks Japanese stocks. It's called the Wisdom Tree Japan Total Dividend ETF (DXJ). Let's check out its daily, two-year chart below.

    Declines at the Yen Can function as Catalyst for Enormous Movements in Japanese ETFs



    Going into 2012, the yen took a tumble and Japanese stocks obtained their first good shot in the arm they have had in Quite a While.

    Now, the yen is starting to fall off the map and DXJ is breaking out of its triangular coiling consolidation.

    I feel this sets up DXJ into where it may visit $36 per share or greater over the next two to three weeks. This usually means the stock could move a whopping 11% within that very short time if the yen keeps falling as I feel it will.

    So check out DXJ. I feel it's primed for its second launch higher and it's going to grab the masses off guard. They're going to wonder where this rally came out. But you'll know that it's come from the new stimulus and from the shift in the direction of the yen.

    Have a Wonderful day!

    Sean Hyman
    Editor, Currency Cross Trader

  3. #43
    This one Jack Crooks wrote back in August. Those who followed his recommendations made a lot of money through the previous few weeks...

    http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/sover...-of-pain-50310


    You may recall my Cash and Markets column, #8220;Exactly why the yen might be now#8217;s best currency exchange. #8221; Now I would like to give you an update on why I think we are extremely close to a long-term peak in the value of the Japanese yen. Or to put it another way a major long-term multi-year bottom in the U.S. dollar.

    Permit#8217;s first go back to the 1980s when Japan was poised for what many thought was inevitable economic domination. The country was in the middle of a massive credit bubble8212; valuations were off the charts.

    For instance, in 1989 the Tokyo Imperial Palace was stated to be worth more than all the property in California! The country8217;s trade balance was soaring against the Earth, notably the United States. Japanese companies have been gobbling up real funds throughout the globe.

    Here in the U.S. the premiere properties acquired were Pebble Beach Golf Course and Rockefeller Center. Americans were concerned, very worried about this8220;overseas invasion. #8221; And Japan bashing was in fashion.

    Throughout the early 1980s the U.S. dollar was at a major bull market. Regardless of the actual value of the dollar and other fiat currency values inflating away, the dollar staged a rally of nearly 50 percent in the low in 1980. Paul Volcker#8217;s tough adore administered by a huge hike in interest rates, was the alyst of this multi-year rally.

    With Japan the big dog on the block and its trade surplus soaring, U.S. manufacturers and other trade groups began applying pressure to get a dollar devaluation #8212; the dollar was8220;too significant. #8221; Thus the major international powers jumped into action to rectify this terrible wrong.

    The United States, the Uk, France, West Germany, and Japan got together in the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed that the dollar has been too large. The Plaza Accord or Plaza Agreement was signed on September 22, 1985. In short, the nations agreed to allow their respective central banks to intervene in the foreign currency market through a coordinated attempt to push the U.S. dollar down.

    Though in the time billed as a dollar problem, the implicit reason for the Plaza Accord appeared a defense against Japan#8217;s rising trade surplus. Therefore it had been of a #8220;push up the value of the yen#8221; arrangement.

    Many, rightfully, considered Japan#8217;s competitive export-dominated trade policy reap the benefits of relatively open markets in the West by generating increasingly high-value goods and morphing up the consumer value chain. But in the exact same time it continuously found a way to stop or delay Western goods out of making it to Japanese customers.

    As I said, the Plaza Accord worked in pushing up the value of the yen. But it did little to solve the trade balance issue. Japan#8217;s trade surplus remained strong even as the yen soared.

    From the chart below I've compared Japan#8217;s trade surplus on a daily basis together with all the yen#8217;s value from 1983 through June 2012. I noted the Plaza Accord and the official Credit Crunch begin by the red vertical lines. Think of these as bookends about the huge rally in the yen.



    This is where it begins to get interesting if, like me, you think the USD/JPY is close to some major long-term bottom #8230;

    The way I see it, the true trigger that altered the dynamics for Japan#8217;s seemingly unending trade surplus was the Credit Crunch. That#8217;s since the Credit Crunch brought an end to Japan#8217;s lengthy series of trade surpluses!

    I also think it triggered the start of the ending of this Asian export version as we know it. I see three major motives, which are interrelated and self-reinforcing:

    It marked the ending of an era of unlimited global liquidity #8230;

    Second, it triggered a secular shift in international consumption #8230;

    And third, more specifically #8230;

    Approximately 90 percent of Western debt is held by Japanese investors.

    Through time, enormous pools of economies and massive current account surpluses have given plenty of cash to finance the Japanese government8217;s growing need for funds #8212; as taxation revenues were increasingly scarce given Japan#8217;s low expansion deflationary market.

    But today, Japan faces a daunting prospect as a Result of the Credit Crunch. No more is it generating the current account surplus it needs. Consumer demographics and very low growth have pushed the consumer economies pool drastically reduced8212; heading toward zero.

    And companies domestically have been using their economies pools to recover from the Tsunami and plug the holes out of falling demand for their exports. Therefore, the Japanese government is at risk of a funding deficit #8212; at least. And this is extremely dangerous.

    Here#8217;therefore #8230;

    Japan has a government debt-to-GDP ratio of around 215 percent. The interest cost to finance this debt is enormous. Plus the annual funding needed to maintain government services is massive. Add them up and you also get a mismatch between government revenues and spending. It#8217;s called a budget deficit, also here in the U.S. we know firsthand how that functions.

    Next, take a look at the chart below. Currently the yield on the benchmark 20-year Japanese government bond (JGB) is 1.7 percent. In fact it's hovered around this level as 1998.


    20-year Japanese Government Bond Yield
    vs. the USD-Japanese yen 1990-today



    If Japan does not possess the inner funds available to manage its requirements, it will have to look to global investors with this funding.

    Thus Japan is confronted with a triple-whammy of pain:

    1) Rising funding requirements,
    two) Falling internal sources of funding,
    3) Rising funding costs because overseas investors will anticipate a greater yield than 1.7 percentage to account for the risk of holding debt.

    Since Japan is facing this triple-whammy having an already astronomical debt burden, this mixture of issues will likely result in a vicious self-feeding spiral. Then higher interest rates will lead to higher funding costs and falling bond prices will result in dumping of bonds, which leads to greater yields to lure new buyers.

    I think we are seeing the traces of what could eventually become a Japanese government bond default because the sovereign debt problem visits Tokyo. My suspicion is that after the markets are completed attaching the euro-zone bonds they'll train their firearms Japan.

    To sum this up, a shift in the global economy and the traces of a sovereign bond astrophe in Japan suggest to me that we have to be very close to some major trend change for the Japanese yen.

    Best wishes,
    Jack

  4. #44
    The following article was written back in June 2012...

    http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-t...e-49832?FIELD9
    by Jack Crooks

    Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 7:30am


    The Japanese yen continues to Resist its own economic fundamentals. It continues to move up and down in value, in comparison to risk off (stocks and growth resources moving reduced) or risk on (stocks and growth resources moving higher). But the latest statistics and dynamics forcing the Japanese economy to the future still tell me that the yen will weaken in a very big way, sooner or later.

    If you are a long-term participant who has some patience, then I consider this the best single trade set up among the major foreign exchange pairs: A core long-term long position in USD (U.S. dollar)/JPY (Japanese yen). In other words, bet the yen will fall with regard to the dollar.



    Of late, the yen (relative value) is moving from tight, negative correlation with risk assets. Employing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as a measure of risk assets, it is possible to observe the Dow falls, the value of the yen increases. On the chart below, the USD/JPY falls as the yen gets more powerful relative to the U.S. dollar.

    If you take into account the yen correlation against the DJIA or the Nikkei 225 Index, it's effectively the same -- concern in international stock markets means the yen strengthens. The main reason is simple repatriation.

    Japan is still an extremely wealthy country regardless of the economic calamity experienced because the bubble broke back in 1989. Its insurance and pension funds have enormous sums of investment capital. After things get ugly globally, quantified by stock markets, these huge pools of funds have a tendency to hurry back home to conceal in neighborhood Japanese government bonds for security.

    By way of instance, consider the connection between the DJIA and USD/JPY going straight back into the credit crunch period beginning in mid-2007:

    DJIA down 15.2 percent from its peak

    USD/JPY down 35.9 percent from its peak



    Dollar/yen has fallen 35.9 percent, or put the other way -- that the yen has strengthened 35.9 percent against the U.S. dollar because the credit crunch (generating enormous price pressure on Western exporters) while stocks climbed.

    And if you consider that one of the major impacts of this credit crisis was the decrease in international demand for products from export-oriented states, such as Japan and China, it is possible to see why Japanese companies are crying for relief from that double whammy of annoyance.

    Japan's Soaring Authorities Debt Crisis

    The dangers of a declining trade surplus and powerful yen pressures are placed quite clearly into context when you realize that Japan will probably conduct a fiscal deficit of a whopping 10 percent of GDP. Meanwhile its debt/GDP ratio could rise to the moon-launch degree of 241 percent (roughly double the degree of Italy) this year, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund.

    Notice from the chart below how government debt has continued to ramp up after the bubble broke from 1989. And this matches the view gaining ground that after Mr. Market is done crushing the European bond market, it turns its guns on Japan.



    Now, what makes that picture even worse is that the train-wreck situation of Japan no longer having the ability to fund these huge debt demands internally as the pools of private and business savings are drying up. In other words, if Japanese interest rates rise from their exceptionally low levels -- 0.89 percent on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (see chart below) -- the price of funding with 200 % debt/GDP could shoot upward exponentially.

    If Japan's bonds start to reflect actual or even potential funding risk, forcing interest rates higher, it means that local need from Western institutions will fall much more, placing greater pressure on rates, while the slowdown in economic activity will further reduce Japan's accessible pool of savings to fund this growing need.



    Japan is facing a very frightening situation here. Sooner or later, the yen will start to reflect these internal realities. I think it will be sooner. As it does, the value of the yen has a lengthy way to collapse (USD/JPY has a lengthy way to rise). The long term profit potential I see here is huge.

    Best wishes,
    Jack

  5. #45
    Really nice!

  6. #46
    Junior Member Salvi's Avatar
    11
    1 Attachment(s)
    Hey ,

    Thank You for responding. I am on the other side of the trade at right now. Got brief @ 94.84 today.

    This is a counter trend trade so could be risky but price has seemed to been stalling when searching at the Daily charts and I still see more downside motion in the not too distant future.

    Brief AUD/JPY @ 94.846

    SL: Just over 1st weekly resistance @ 96.20
    TP: 89.50 (I reserve the right to tp @ anytime depending on PA)

    Weekly Support / Resistance:

    1st Resistance: 95.97

    1st Support: 92.60
    2nd Support:...
    Hi 100pips,

    I have been long-ing ever since it breaks down the WEEKLY CHANNEL. A retracement is definitely on the card now but my long term goal is around 103. xx.

    Currently my SL moved to 100... 91. xx
    https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...ng-market.html

  7. #47
    2 Attachment(s)
    Nice, reporting in! Currently long AUDJPY
    Hey FxLapozi,

    Thanks for responding. I am on the side of this transaction as of right now. Got short @ 94.84 today.

    This is a counter trend trade so can be risky but price has appeared to be stalling when looking at the Daily charts and I see more downside motion in the not too distant future.

    Short AUD/JPY @ 94.846

    SL: Only above 1st weekly resistance @ 96.20
    TP: 89.50 (I reserve the right to tp @ anytime depending on PA)

    Weekly Support / Resistance:

    1st Resistance: 95.97

    1st Support: 92.60
    2nd Support: 89.50
    3rd Support: 88.48


    My principal area of interest will be 89.50 as I presume price can move to this place in the short term. But, I remain bullish on AUD/JPY for the long term.
    https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...-studying.html
    https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...s-signals.html

  8. #48
    Junior Member Salvi's Avatar
    11
    This thread is meant for traders who trade USD/JPY as well as ALL of the other JPY cross pairs such as AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and NZD/JPY.

    Due to current monetary policies implemented by the Bank of Japan for more easing I believe 2013 could be a interesting year for USD/JPY and the Yen crosses. We have already seen AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY break from multi-year ranges to the upside so exciting trending instances are back.

    I welcome all traders to post their analysis, charts, as well as JPY news related articles within this thread...
    Nice, reporting in! Currently long AUDJPY

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