Training Journal
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thread: Training Journal

  1. #1
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279

    Training Journal

    This diary is to record my analysis, egy and logic for inputting trades.
    I adopt a Global-Macro method of trading. In a nutshell, I search for opportunities such as mispricings and insecure trades with risk benefits.


    WARNINGEverything I post are my OPINIONS. Not exchange recommendations!
    Posts about trades are DELAYED.
    I strongly discourage attempts to copy my trades.
    Finally, I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR LOSSES!
    (Although you can always thank me to your own wins )



    Edit:

    26/04/2018
    --

    My trading style has evolved once again. Not extreme, however there are modifiions to my Trade Decision Process. This is my trading methodology.

    Trade Decision Process
    1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity
    Draw hyperlinks from news, use your logic to create a narrative.

    2. Produce Trade Plan
    Really realize what you are trading. What are the elements affecting it? Does evidence support/disprove your narrative? What are the risks to the commerce? Where do you expect to acquire in/out? What are the current market sentiment? The essential thing is to truly be comprehend and know the product you are trading. I can't stress this enough!

    3. Document all possible risks
    Political, economical, natural etc.. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk. Conviction have you got in this trade idea? What/where would be your margin-of-safety?
    If unattractive, don't trade.

    4. Time that the Entry
    The only time I use technicals. Do not overcomplie things here. A very simple break of MA or support/resistence crossover is all I want to signal an entry.

    5. Track and Manage the Trade
    Is price movement justifying my prediction? Any fundamental shift if fad? Can I do I escape or live in the commerce?

    I have to state again the importance of understanding what you are trading. You would not buy a car without doing your homework. Without performing your research, neither if you enter a trade. Research is key!


    3/03/2018
    --

    Some more nuggets which I feel is useful for all traders to know:

    - Trading isn't a consistent activity - Do not expect to be gaining X percent every day, week, month or year.
    - NOBODY can predict the near - comprehend that every transaction is essentially a gamble. Your analysis can suggest the probability of success. However, you can be incorrect!
    - Be critical of everything - Regrettably in this industry, there is alot of conflict of interest. And people will do anything. Be critical of everything you see, learn, read or hear. Because it's a likelihood that someone out there will try to flow false information to sucker traders of the cash.

    These are only some nuggets that I feel help me survive and improve my trading up to now. And I feel it's going to benefit the standard retail trader .


    23/01/2018
    --

    Following months of trading, I've updated my trading philosophy and decision making processes based on my own experiences. This is my trading philosophy that is updated .

    - Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail - Never enter a transaction without due diligence.
    - If you are incorrect, get out of the transaction ASAP. Don't hope for a recovery.
    - Ride your winners but know when to take profits.
    - Always know your downside risks, always be ready for the worst case situation.
    - DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE, ensure you have the ability to handle the drawdowns!
    - Risk management and capital preservation is number 1 priority. Substainable profits is next by a long stretch.
    - Learn to stay on the sidelines if there are no opportunities. Keep this Dry Powder for golden opportunities

    There are not much modifiions to my Trade Decision Process, although I tend to rely considerably lesser on technical analysis now.
    The main lessons learnt over these months is all about risk and expect. I can not stress enough the importance of taking a loss when you are wrong, instead of hoping for a rebound in prices.

    --

    30/12/2017
    --

    Throughout my diary, there should be a noticable shift in the way I present my commerce ideas. Including the sorts of thought, sources of my information, kind of analysis, along with the demonion of my commerce ideas.
    A common theme is my commerce ideas are all anticipated to take place during a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.

    __________________

    Initial article:

    Note to Self:

    Trade Decision Process
    1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity - Draw hyperlinks in news, Logic
    2. Produce Trade Plan - Expected reactions, Expected TP and SL, Momentum, Swaps
    3. Document all possible risks - political, economical, natural etc.. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk
    4. Time the Entrance - Technicals
    5. Manage and Track the Trade - Is price movement justifying my prediction? Any fundamental shift if fad? Stay in the commerce or get out?

    Update:
    I'd love to add another step after drawing a commerce program. That would be come up with all of the ways the plan might fail and to critic the egy. A counter-plan I will probably call it. Afterward I shall compare my original plan with the counter-plan to see whether the transaction is worth implementing. This review process will keep me from poorly planned trades.
    _________________________________

    News Analysis Considerations
    - Immediate, Short (lt;5 times), Medium (5 times ~ 3 Month) and Long Term (gt;3 Months) Impact of News
    - Divergence/Opportunity between time effect of news
    - Context of News/Statistics
    - Expectations before the news

    Nuggets to self
    - Market often overreact to news. Particularly when its bad
    - Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
    - Buy the rumours, sell the truth
    - Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail
    - It is much better to miss a winning commerce than to ch a shedding one
    - Do not place all your eggs in 1 basket - Diversify!
    - 80% Fundamental, 20 percent Technical
    - Bulls go up the stairs, bears jump out the window
    - Do not be worried about the short-term changes, concentrate on the primary fashion - Sit Tight!
    - Just risk what you are eager to eliminate
    - Cut your losers whenever you are proven wrong, not if the losses begin to hurt
    - you need to be ready to eliminate your entire profits in order to ch a huge move
    - You win some, you eliminate some. 1 commerce dont determine achievement.
    - Take a break from trading following a loss - Trust me, it will help!
    - Revenge commerce is suicide - DONT DO IT
    - Losing trades are course, not failues
    - NEVER ever put a trade when you are not thinking right
    - Hope kills - Do not expect! Have contingencies!
    - To protect ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself - Prevent the loss of your funds and wait for the market to supply you with a trading opportunity

    ____________________

    Edit:
    --

    Throughout my diary, there should be a noticable shift in the way I present my commerce ideas. Including the sorts of thought, sources of my information, kind of analysis, along with the demonion of my commerce ideas.
    A common theme is my commerce ideas are all anticipated to take place during a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.

  2. #2
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    26/04/2018
    --

    Eventually my GBPUSD place moved to the green. For nearly 3 complete months, I have been persistent in my bearish opinion for this particular currency pair. When my views are contrary to market consensus.

    Oh it seems damn great to be right on a major move!

    Moving ahead. I don't really think this is the conclusion of the move. If anything, I think it is simply the beginning. Most economic data indies that inflation will be selecting . And I think that this will support the front-of-the-curve fed. Conversely, nothing have enhanced in UK. BoE are still stuck in a dilemma of high inflation and low wage growth. Though inflation seems to be starting to come down marginally. Brexit is as complex as ever.

    My ultimate price target is 1.3 on GBPUSD. Admitedly, that is a goal. I think that I could probably lighten my positions when prices are around 1.35.

  3. #3
    21/05/2018 -- Not sure if it is just me, or do I keep noticing an a significant range of bearish USD calls? Just like im not kidding. Nearly 90% of the posts/analysis/calls concerning the USD is bearish! Im taking this that most traders still do not buy the powerful dollar storyline. And also a contrarian indior. Gonna sit danm tight on my long dollar positions. Im currently itching to take some cash off the table. But I know that it isn't the ideal thing to do. Especially when there is a strong trend in my own favour. Constantly fighting that urge within me! Plus it...
    Synicz,

    Thanks for sharing your ideas man... In case you do not take offense, could you discuss your position size, I mean generally how much size per trade.

    I know if you do not share the info. Don't hesitate to shoot me a pm if you want it off the general forum.

    Thanks

  4. #4
    Member Sun's Avatar
    70
    Gbpusd only hit 1.43 degree. With such crazy momentum the previous 2 months. That is unsubstainable! I continue to hold the opinion that gbpusd was heavily mid-priced. And that finally, prices will revert back to levels. Given a alyst. It may take 6 months, 3 weeks, 12 months or longer. Together with the interest rate differential between UK and US. Coupled with the consequence of brexit. Every inch of my body tells me that the pound must depreciate against the US dollar. Yet this doesn't seem to be the situation. It takes enormous...
    On May 10th it'll drop as traders will take profit. Look at September when the rally started for 1st increase and then Examine the day of release but I don't see it falling so the loss would be cut against by me

  5. #5
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    Note to self:

    PnL records can be faked. Do NOT trust such sources no matter how legitimate they might appear. Perform your own background check.

    Most folks have an agenda. Either commercial or self purpose.

  6. #6
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    quote UK GDP data down. For me it's in my own favour. Next up will be US GDP data. My guess is that it might not surpass expectations. I would take off some profits when nearing news release. It is a good trading day so far today
    Ended the day 160 pips in the green. Setting to BE and letting this baby run!

    All in all, my cable position puts me forward by 10-11%

  7. #7
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    27/04/2018 -- Observing the back and fourth whiplash impact in GBPUSD. I have added to cable, betting in favor for US on the GDP data. I noted that alot of individuals - both plausible analyst and average retail traders are very skeptical of the USD strength... Suggesting to me that the market bets continue to be quite tilted toward the brief dollar commerce... My logic is telling me that given reasonable data, this trade could unwind further... And it feels like a fantastic risk reward trade to me! We shall see how things goes in the conclusion...
    UK GDP down data. Fortunately for me it is in my favour.
    Next up will be US GDP data. My guess is that it may not surpass expectations. I would take some profits when nearing news release.

    It's a good trading day so far today

  8. #8
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    27/04/2018
    --

    Observing the back and fourth whiplash impact in GBPUSD.
    I have added on more shorts to cable, betting on the GDP data in favour for US.

    I noted that alot of people - both credible analyst and average retail traders are extremely skeptical of their USD strength... Suggesting to me the market bets are still quite tilted toward the short dollar trade... My logic is telling me given reasonable data, this trade could unwind further... And it seems like a fantastic risk reward trade for me! We shall see how things goes in the end of trading today.

    Edit:
    I am just itching so badly to inform the dollar bears to alter their perspectives! But I know it isn't the ideal thing to do as who am I? Nobody. Again, it is soooo fuing to see people with various perspectives ! Guess thats life!

  9. #9
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    quote Apparently there is large Algo buys occurring from 1.3900 so maybe exit your position.
    Nahhh, nothing has changed fundamentally. My conviction is still intact.

  10. #10
    Member Sun's Avatar
    70
    quote In hindsight, everything made sense. Despite the central banks being on interest rate trajectory, markets haven't priced this in since they are doubtful. Now, together with the US bond returns as a alyst, markets suddenly realise that hey look! Fed is trekking rates sharply while UK is too fragile for BoE to increase rates! And that doesn't look like it's going to change.
    Apparently there is large Algo buys occurring from 1.3900 so maybe exit your place.

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