21/03/2018
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...source=twitter
Another news to encourage my views on where UK is going. Seems to be playing like my narrative.
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21/03/2018
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...source=twitter
Another news to encourage my views on where UK is going. Seems to be playing like my narrative.
20/03/2018
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I'd say I had been busy(I actually am!) . But I want to take some time in the close of the day to talk about a subject of interest. I heard it while enjoying videos of interviews with shareholders.
As well as the subject is about Diversifiion.
Probably the most well-known quote concerning diversifiion is Diversifiion is the only free lunch.
Another famous quote that I do feel is more known from the equities community is by Warren Buffett Diversifiion is protection against ignorance.
What's diversifiion good or not?
General consensus amongst investing community is that diversifiion is good for 99% of investors. (Don't ask me how they got that figure). Unless you're sure that your selections can beat the market, then in that case diversifiion is much more of a liability because it reduces your profit possible.
Now I would like to bring this phrase into the context of retail trading. Based purely in my observation, most retail traders that I see do not appear to employ diversifiion. This is likely linked to the short-term nature of the transactions(Which is a subject that I have been preaching about for quite awhile now). In reality, I see expert traders of certain assets from the retail area. Think about traders who only trade a certain pair like EURUSD, or somebody who trades Oil stocks, or even a Gold traders. So the question is would diversifiion help these traders?
In general, my opinion is that diversifiion is helpful to all retail traders, as well as some experts. That most of people can be labelled beneath dumb as I am pretty sure. Oh how often have I noticed retail traders initiating trades without a comprehensive study on what they're trading, often basing off their paychecks nothing more than price action and/or technical related signs(Another point that I have been preaching for quite awhile now).
Of course there are some exceptional retail expert, who apparently excel in trading one asset. But can their functionality beat on the markets in the long term?
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against trying to beat the markets. There is the expression you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take.
What I feel is that everybody should adopt some kind of diversifiion. Be it a investor having a portfolio of asset egory, a trader trading multiple markets, or a professional with a part of their wealth invested in an index fund. Some diversifiion is good for all of us.
That I have come to realise that the chance of me being in the 1 percent bracket of outperformers is tiny. It doesn't mean that I will stop attempting to outperform the market, but it means that I understand that I am unable to perform it. And that I must adopt all neccessary steps to avoid the market. Which means more frequently than not, I require some type of diversifiion in my portfolio/trades.
16/03/2018
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I'll be quite busy the next few days. I may not have enough time to observe the markets.
This is simply a food for thought pole.
Below is a daily chart of Dollar Index (Blue), moderate Crude Oil Futures (Grey), and T Bond futures (Red).
Generally, T bond and US dollar should be positively correlated while crude oil should proceed in the reverse of those. The exact reasoning behind their relationship may be the topic of another post. It'll be a mouthful.
What I am noticing is that about the past month, we could see a small weakening of crude oil futures. At the same time, T bond prices and US dollar index prices seem to be receding, coinciding well with the breaking down of oil prices. This appears to indie a turning point in the current trend.
Is this signal tradable? Only time will tell!
14/02/2018
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Ultimately seeing some recovery in USD after half a week of feeble USD.
UK Bond returns are moving down. Maybe due to the UK russia frighten? US bond yields.
Equity mainly down across the board whilst yen gains. Crude oil futures down. This suggests risk off. But Gold isnt gaining.
My concern now is that the markets seemingly not pricing in a fourth rate increase by the fed. This might have impliions for the USD. I will not make transactions that are uneccessary with no strong fundamental backing.
Sitting put in my long USD positions!
Soooo some currency egist on bloomberg was stating that he'll be buying the pound. Citing that BoE will be normalizing monetary policy soon.
Can he be not looking at the information?! Can BoE keep hiking rates when their economy is Is he not aware of brexit risk?
02/05/2018
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Tonight is a big night for USD.
While I don't expect any rate increase from the fed. I wont rule out hawkishness.
Recent statistics for US has been quite good up to now. Inflation appears to be coming back through symptom of other economic data. And my guess is that this may have captured the focus, because the whole market captured on to the readings.
As a side note, I detected that the 10 Y treasury yield creeping back up towards 3 percent... Another round of intraday USD rally on the cards? I cant say for certain but it wont hurt to put a small bet!
01/05/2018
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Still riding the USD power up till today. Nothing significant to include to comment on the crazy pace of US Dollar power!
I discovered that recently, US Dollar have been monitoring the 10 Year return quite closely. Can I to use that information for my advantage? I honestly dont know.
I also detected a lot of calling the US dollar power unsubstainable overextended and irrational.
I admit that yes I really do feel that this dollar rally is partially neutralized by speculators. Which makes it unsubstainable. However, it has been a long time coming. It was simply obsecured by politics. Which isn't likely to affect the term price of the dollar.
Yeah, I'd rather be safe than sorry if my convictions isnt strong.
The rba money rate is now so hopefully it doesn't mean you've missed out on any possible profits.
Closed my AUDJPY at a gain. The pair is moving . Not taking the risk.
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