thread: Training Journal

quote Lol considering pound today it seems all traders ate doing is scalping it and letting it fall back into some suport level. They are treating it like a penny stock lol

Somehow Im not really phased that cable is poorer today. The few days that are pastswings down and up are kinda expected.
That being said, I guess theres no use in holding this scalp position if prices keep heading down. We will see how things goes at the day's close.

quote Haha it is totally not my style, guess I got to keep those itchy fingers in control. Its position that is a little. I could justify as hedging my emotions? If I win then good, I manage to spare abit if I lose I understand price is heading in my planned direction.

Lol considering pound now it seems all traders ate doing is scalping it and letting it drop back to a suport level. They're treating it

quote did not know investors were permitted to own scalp lol. Yea it gained power but it was choppy whoever was in the trade must have been frued.

Haha it's completely not my personality, guess I got to keep those itchy palms in control.
Its a little position. As hedging my emotions I could justify? If I win then great, I manage to save abit about the drawdown, if I lose, at least I know price is currently going into my direction that is intended.

4/4/2018 -- Seems that GBP enjoyed quite a start to the new quarter. Even gaining despite a few USD comeback against other currencies. It is profiting in the asian session. I guess it's going to be another day of GBPUSD strength... Im contemplating a quick scalp up. Likely going to set my order in around the start of the day 1.407. Update: Entry has been triggered by a quick decending price motion. Makes me somewhat nervous about my decision! Ohwells, its a little position anyway and I'll likely close in the conclusion...

didn't understand investors were allowed to scalp lol.

Yea it gained power but it was really choppy so whomever was in the transaction must have been frued.

4/4/2018
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Appears that GBP enjoyed a long time into the new quarter. Gaining despite some USD comeback against other currencies.
So far it is still profiting in the asian session. I guess it's going to be another evening of GBPUSD strength...
Im contemplating a fast scalp up. Probably going to set my order at round the open of the day 1.407.

Update:
Entrance was triggered by a relatively quick decending price motion. Makes me slightly nervous about my decision! Ohwells, its a position anyway and I will probably close at the end of the day.

3/4/2018 -- I realised that SP500 just closed under the 200 Day moving average yesterday. I may not be a huge fan of analysis. But breach of a business accepted indior could just set off some chain reaction. On the lookout for weakness in the equity markets specifically today and probably the rest of this week too. The more it goes that the more confident I am that this correction is a crash. Waiting to get a spillover effect into other assets. Bonds, Currencies, Commodities. The risk off...

You'll find earnings this week so be careful as it might tank or move up

3/4/2018
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I realised that SP500 just closed below the 200 Day moving average yesterday.
I might not be a massive fan of technical analysis. But breach of a business accepted indior might set off a chain reaction. Looking for additional weakness in the equity markets specifically today and probably this week's rest too. The more this goes the more convinced I am that this correction is actually a crash.

Still waiting for a spillover effect into other assets. Bonds, Currencies, Commodities. Somehow, the risk off belief looks comprised in equities. My guess is that any spillover to other markets will confirm downward move and further strengthen my conviction to seek for risk off opportunities.
Not a Fantastic start to Q2 for the markets eh?

2/4/2018
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Spent last night trying to improve my forecast model. I believe I made some major progress!



This sterplot shows the predicted monthly yields of GBPUSD versus the actual returns of GBPUSD.
Evaluation result shows an increased precision rate of 87 percent (rather good). Together with the typical error rate of approximately 0.81%.
That is a vast improvement over my previous model!

Im starting to believe I can be a part time quant

Edit: The model forecasts that GBPUSD yields for April will be -1.85%. We have about 1% of leeway after adjusting for ordinary error. Conviction brief?

quote Hmm I praise you on this since your view is that of an investor and mine is that of a trader that's very sentiment driven. Lol Goldmansachs are currently taunting the UK saying they have hired lawyers to sort out their reloion as they have not paid the lawyers lol, and it is not too late.

It could be plausible from a management standpoint to delay movement initiative until the brexit deal is confirmed, think about the costs, time, inconvenience it would cost businesses. And all that could be for nothing if they were UK and to reloe chose to remain.

quote Inflation is elevated because of the mass devaluation of the pound pole brexit, pushing import prices up. AKA Cost Push Inflation. This differs from the normal inflation whereby prices rise due to consumers getting more and thus spending more (Demand Pull Inflation). This is not the type of inflation we'd desire in the economy. Yes no doubt unemployment is low, but the rate of wage rise have been lagging behind the rate of inflation. It has matched inflation amounts. We can see the impact of disparity between the speed...

Hmm I praise you on this because your view is that of an investor and mine is that of a trader that is very opinion driven.

Lol Goldmansachs are taunting the UK saying they've hired attorneys to sort out their reloion and it is not too late as they haven't paid the attorneys lol.