It is obvious to me that brent prices are in a range. I visit 50 as the upper bound and 46 as the lower bound. A fracture in either way will prompt me to shut out or add position
Brent
Bear continue to dominate as prices fall lower. I have added another place at 46.6 as prices is comfirming my theory of a bear market.
An intriguing observation I have made on brent prices intraday is that prices tend to grind up slowly, then free fall downwards. Relating this to the famous saying of Jesse Livermore, prices take the path of least resistence.
Brent
Initial reports of russia unkeen on further price cuts sent oil prices falling. To compound onto this, OPEC countries oil production climbed this week and US additional more rigs. The global supply glut difficulty is once again resurfacing in the price action.
Few items that I have realised so far. Trading oil appears to be just a case of identifying supply-demand imbalance, and trading in that direction. Sounds easier to test than currencies to me as you will find lower variables to take into account.
Next, news often contain alot of noise that's quite a distraction. At times they might even introduce a fact in such a way which makes readers place more weightage when contemplating variables. Luckily for me, I was able to withstand the noise about oil prices rebounding and possible rally to 50 etc..
Lastly, I am glad I was able to withstand a considerable amount of drawdown plogically. Every day once I see my position go agaisnt me more, I have the urge to close out. But fundamentally there isnt a reason to do so! Which brings me back to a key concept that I must emphasize to myself:
Exit not if you have dropped enough, but when you are incorrect
Likewise with accepting profits, I should not tp when I feel I have won sufficient, but if circumstances change contrary to me.
Brent prices eventually starts to reverse. And going in my planned direction. Ill be Searching for signs of a continuation before adding for my positions
that I find it rather absurd that prices soar on news of us oil rig count falling by two! That shows how large a part speculators perform in pricing of oil. I'm now in the risk zone, even if prices dont reverse anytime soon then im caling it stops and closing out
Brent prices at 47.9ish... Im still confident of this temporary-ness of the bull movement. Analysts are saying that the bullishness is a result of the weather condition amd temporary shutdown of plants. They will recover in time and the bear move will continue...
However I cannot deny that prices are shing greatly against me. I'm investing on thin ice...
Now is the release of us crude oil inventories. Brent prices went up to 47 prior to being rejected. It's climbing up back to 47 as I type. The question today is: Insert or no add? My fear is that if prices violate 47 resistance, we may observe large motion to 47.5. That is my SL warning. If I could hold off till prices hit 47.5 before bouncing back, it cover large profits
Lots of central bankers to speak today. Im staying out of currencies for today since I do not have time to analyze them.
Update
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Brent Crude
We're nowwww at the key $47 level. I see prices dangling around here
Update 2
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Brent Crude
Price overshot 47 to around 47.2... Can it keep going up?
Update 3
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Brent Crude
Price has made a decision to remain withing a narrow range of 47-47.2 for now... I shall leave it as is and head off to sleep. , Shall check.
My hunch in the bull motion should be coming to an end. But as the saying goes: Do not try to pick tops and bottoms
Brent prices just keep going up without a apparent fundamental drivers. I strongly suspect this is a technical correction. And that prices will soon resume the downtrend again. Will be looking to add place once I see that a solid bounce off resistence. Currently prices are around 46.35. The instant level to add place is in 46. However, if prices rise greater, I will adjust this accordingly
Brent crude went around $46 before dropping back to $45.9ish. No fundamental drivers has been identified for this movement. Reading around the term is that brent is due to your technical correction soon. I'm contemplating quickly adding to my position but'm hesitant. Oil headlines are about just how bearish it is and how low prices can go. A bull rally may cause stop loss and change traders directional understanding. If I'm to add to my position, I will only do so when I see prices rejected strongly from 46.
Stronger US dollar trigger my T bond position to get rid of value. However, this is not a worry.
This week, my eyes are going to be on US economy. Both fed and economic data. For hints of the chance of a third rate hike. Currently, I'm still bearish on usd, however, recent prices disagrees. Usd Favorable data that supports the theory of a transitionary period will turn my perspectives bullish.
UK wise, ill be monitoring the political developments with May, DUP, BOE, and Brexit discussions. Although I still hold a bearish view for its gbp, last week's BOE vote incident generated some air of doubt for me. Ill remain on the sidelines for now.
Brent primitive position finished the week giving back nearly all of the profits. Now sitting at 9 pips in the green.
But on a weekly basis. This is the 5th straight week brent primitive is falling. The question is: Just how much lower can Brent Crude prices move?
I strongly suspect that we might get a week or two of retracement/ranging prices. Before restarting the eventual bear trend. Fridays bull move appears like profit taking or perhaps stop searching to me. If my guess is right, we will probably see prices hit 46 or marginally above prior to crashing to around 44. As these are the areas I have identified as potential stop clusters.
Fundamentally, I have no explation for your bull move. With oil production and rig counts continuously rising, I would expect it to collapse.
Us 30y Bond finished the week at 85pips profit. No comments here.
Im still on the lookout to enter short gbpnzd. Now identified 1.743 as the major resistence to split before contemplating an entrance. Fundamentally, it looks like uk remains weakening. Although exports rose because of the weaker currency.
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