Training Journal -
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thread: Training Journal

  1. #21
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    quote The surveys are scaring gbp investors, which is very good news to me. Ill most likely TP before election outcome as price will most likely bouce back up if T.May wins Update _________ Only as I mentioned it, gbp jumped back up. The one thing is to the money supply that is better-then-expected. Germany said they'll work following brexit with UK. This can definitly relief strain on UK's economy in addition to act to follow suit. I view this as altering the fundamental trend of gbp. I am going to observe...
    Are looking through my previous transactions to attempt and find out from them. Right now looking back, I probably shouldnt have exited those transactions based on a single news. The pound has the potential to fall along with the bull movement was just retracement.
    These transactions re-emphasized that I must not allow my emotions rule my head. In cases like this, it is the fear of losing profits and substaining loss. I must be willing to give up my profits if I want to stay in the trade.

    Gbpzar currently marginally above 16.5 while gbpjpy approximately at 142.3. I would still maintain the green had stayed in the commerce.

    Update 04/06/2017
    _____________________

    Latest londen attack unfolding. I'm watching. My condolences go out to the victims.

    However, I cannot ignore the economic and political reprecussions which could accompany this attack. Will investors flock from uk? My opinion is that there will be a temporary selloff of this gbp. Which can recover per week. Political parties of both sides may also talk about security policies. Which might affect the election. I expect a bear gap for gbp when market opens. And I might brief the pound if there's a scarcity of bear action when market closes. On the assumption that price will grab up to the news

  2. #22
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    31/05/2017 _______________ I observe a massive divergence regarding oil news and price. OPEC cut oil production but the market is promoting oil. I guess this is a overreaction. Possible buying opportunity here. Shall observe for awhile longer before inputting
    02/06/2017
    ________________

    Brent crude oil still going down to 49ish
    I shall wait for signs of bear motion finishing and a bull motion starting before entering.
    Favourable entry is going to probably be at 48 but this is optional
    Fundamentally I feel that oil price is underpriced even with the enhanced outputs by US
    Looking for long-term retracement to fair price, approximately 54 - 56 zone
    SL will probably be under 46 and any fundamental bad news

  3. #23
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    02/06/2017
    ____________

    gbpusd
    I did a scalp by fading the NFP
    This move was based on the logic which market have a tendency to overreact on bad news
    I admit it was a really risky move but it was just such a tempting opportunity when the trade idea came into my mind and I was willing to risk that amount
    I picked gbpusd because gbp is fundamentally very feeble and I view it as the prime pair to retrace. And I was proven right
    It all happened so quickly that I forgot to observe those prices
    I entered through market order when I saw a pinbar-like candle forming
    Originally had my TP right before the swing reduced with some allowance but manually closed out as the long wick because candle made my scared
    Could have obtained 12ish pips but ended up with 5 pips. Ohwells... I guess some profit is far better than no profit

    Learning things from this commerce:
    - DO NOT TRADE WITH EMOTIONS, I allow my emotions tell me to exit early
    - Always have a commerce program, I did well in that facet

    Overall I felt it was an okay trade. I had an agenda but I did not stick to it

  4. #24
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    02/06/2017
    _____________

    US data for the week is mixed.
    NFP fell short causing selloff in the usd even thou unemployment was much better than anticipated. I guess this selloff to be short lived. But the readings may gave me a bearish view on the usd. I will be shorting the dollar untill interest rate decision on 14 June. My wager is that there may not be a rate hike. Though there was, I foresee profit taking thus driving the dollar lower.
    I will be pairing usd against nzd because their economy is quite stable in my view. Possibly adding extra position about the jpy crosses or alternative currencies that I deem fundamentally stable

    Nzd/Usd
    Short-term bullish view
    Betting on nz economy staying consistent while us to continue to generate more poor economic data along with a possible no hike in june 14. In addition to news of a no 3rd hike
    Trumps impeachment still in the back of my mind encouraging this trade

    Entered through market order in 0.7136 as it seems like it had broken resistance
    Will move SL to BE once price reaches 0.724
    TP target 0.735 since the pair appears like it's in a long-term range
    SL is any fundamentally bad news and price below 0.7

  5. #25
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    31/05/2017
    ____________

    Zar getting poorer. Possibly still because of Zuma's success... Watching gbpzar quite closely. I am still sticking to my plan of SL after 18.4
    Jpy pair still in profit

    Update
    US Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales came in worse than expected. Placing doubts about my slightly bullish opinion. This is one tough currency!

  6. #26
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    Update 29/05/2017 ________________________ Gbp made up several losses so much now. It is in my opinion that this is part of the volatility. Still keeping my bear bias Update 30/05/2017 _______________________ UK polls reveals conservative cut. No major reaction from price nevertheless. Ill watch London and US session to make my decision
    The polls are scaring gbp investors, which can be good news for me. Ill probably TP before election results because price will probably bouce back up if T.May wins

    Update
    _________

    Just as I mentioned it, gbp jumped back up. The one thing is to the cash supply that is better-then-expected.

    Danm, Germany said they'll work with UK following brexit. This can definitly relief pressure on the market of UK as well as act to follow suit.
    I view this as changing the fundamental trend of gbp. I am going to see till the end of the week and likely look to depart with minimal losses

    Update two
    _________

    Exited all of my positions following the rally in gbp, take whatever losses today rather than let them snowball

  7. #27
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    31/05/2017
    _______________

    I see a massive divergence about oil news and price.
    OPEC cut oil production but the market is promoting oil.
    I suspect this is a strong overreaction. Possible buying opportunity. Shall watch for awhile before entering

  8. #28
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    30/05/2017
    _____________

    Based off my hypothesis of the usd in post 5. Coupled with house mess. I am seeking to usd if economic information comes out weak.

    Possible currencies to pair are all safeheaven currencies jpy, chf.

    Considering Zar as a result of my optimism about them
    Gold/silver can also be on my consideration list

    Update
    US data fulfilled expectations, signaling that inferior information in q1 relected a transitionary period. Consumer confidence falls marginally below expectation. However, the dip is small compared to previous gains. Thats all news release for today. Im building a bullish bias for usd. Lets see what additional economic information states...

  9. #29
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    30/05/2017
    ____________

    News of Greece possibly not paying bailout due to a down spike in Eur. I took an urge brief on eurjpy at 123.881. Buying the rumour, selling the truth. Set TP at 123.5 as I deem this to be a short lived move. Will be seeing price closely to exit once I notice that the downward momentum is missing and up momentum is growing

    Update 30/05/2017
    TP triggered while I was away from the display

  10. #30
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    Update 29/05/2017
    ________________________

    Gbp made several losses up so much today. It is that this is a portion of their volatility. Still maintaining my bear bias

    Update 30/05/2017
    _______________________

    UK polls reveals conservative lead cut to 5%. No major response from price nevertheless. Ill observe US and London session

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