Training Journal -
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thread: Training Journal

  1. #11
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    quote Happy for you. There was a lot of pound selling. I am guessing one of those banks gave up on a rate increase for next month.
    Actually, it all made sense. Despite the central banks being on various interest rate trajectory, markets have not priced this in as they are skeptical.
    Now, with the US bond returns as a alyst, markets suddenly realise that hey look! Fed is trekking rates aggressively while UK is too brittle for BoE to increase rates! And this does not look like it's going to change anytime soon.

  2. #12
    Member Sun's Avatar
    70
    26/04/2018 -- Ultimately my GBPUSD position moved into the green. For almost 3 complete months, I have been persistent on my bearish opinion for this particular currency pair. When my views are contrary to market consensus. It feels bloody good to be correct on a major move! Moving forward. I do not think that is the conclusion of the move. If anything, I think it's simply the beginning. Most economic data indies that inflation will be picking up anytime. And I think this will encourage the front-of-the-curve fed. Conversely, nothing much...
    Joyful for you.

    There has been a lot of pound selling temporarily. I am guessing one of the banks gave up on a rate increase for next month.

  3. #13
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    25/04/2018
    --

    USD broadly higher across the board today. Reflecting the risk-off sentiment which developed from the US yesterday.
    Interestingly, JPY can be weaker against the dollar. Which is very unusual for a risk-off sentiment situation.
    I guessed the main story driving all these now is that the US bond yield story. Which may have led investors abroad to view USD and US bonds as attractive.

    I will be on the watch for a counter currency long the USD against. Preferbly one with weak fundamentals and sentiment.

  4. #14
    Member Sun's Avatar
    70
    Checking in on the markets and that I immediately observe the selloff in US equities. Which seems to be more or less contained in america. Some strength in precious metals. Before retreating, US 10 Y bond yield managed to touch 3%. That said. There does not appear to be some spillover impact in currencies. USD seemed to have lost strength from most currencies. Which is slightly wierd as it does not fits. Guess I will sit on the sidelines for yet another day!
    I talked with the analyst today and there clearly was no usd strength didnt feel as we saw 3% today but it merely sent usd/jpy up briefly and weakened all jpy pairs. That gave cable the breather it had been searching for.

  5. #15
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    Checking in on the markets and that I observe the selloff in US equities. Which appears to be less or more comprised in the US. Some power in precious metals. Prior to retreating US 10 Y bond yield managed to reach 3 percent.

    That said. There does not appear to be some spillover impact in currencies. USD seemed to have lost strength against many currencies. Since it does not fits which is wierd. I will sit on the sidelines for still another day!

  6. #16
    Member Sun's Avatar
    70
    24/04/2018 -- Yesterday's market concentrate were largely on the US 10 Year Bond returns. Edging very before retreating some. This has given strength to the US dollar. Causing it to love from most of G10 currencies. My attention was drawn to AUD, and to a lesser extent, NZD. I will seek additional hints about the Aussie economy's functioning with CPI data coming out in abit. If my feeble Aussie hypothesis is supported, I could add on to my short AUDUSD position. Another area I'm watching is the relative...
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  7. #17
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    24/04/2018
    --

    Yesterday's market focus were largely about the US 10 Year Bond returns. Edging very before withdrawing some. This has given strength to the US dollar. Causing it to appreciate from all G10 currencies.

    My attention was drawn particularly to AUD, and to some lesser extent, NZD. I'll seek out additional clues with CPI data coming out from abit. If my weak Aussie hypothesis is supported, I may add on to my AUDUSD position.

    Another place I'm watching is that the relative economic performance between Australia and New Zealand. My suspicion is that using NZ's market being similar albeit smaller compared to Aussie's market, it should perform worse given both nations are facing similar economic situation. I have to look at the economic data to verify this theory. However, if true, my trade idea would probably be audnzd.

    As for my current holdings, the only immediate problem to watch is my brief audjpy trade. Specifically headlines coming from Japans side. As I have yet to investigate into the current political issue nor have I made any effort to really look into the market of Japan. Basically, my current knowledge of the market of Japan is superficial.
    Ironically, my trade narrative was not based on country specific economic factors, but much more toward risk opinion and international macro factors. Speculation at its purest!

    I might not have much time to do any trade research this two weeks, though I might trade if chances originates from my current watchlist.

    PS: Did I mention that GBPUSD broke the 1.4 degree? Ohhh yeah market based off technicals!

  8. #18
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    06/06/2017 _____________ I have been detecting that brent crude oil keep bouncing off slightly below $49. I guess this might be associations building a long position at this level. I might be wrong thou.
    08/06/2017
    _____________
    Brent Crude
    Following the unexpected US crude oil inventories, brent crude falls to sub 47.5 before recovering to about 48. Im expecting for prices to fall to even 45 or 46. I may go from there

  9. #19
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    06/06/2017
    _____________

    I have been detecting that brent crude oil maintain bouncing off marginally below $49. I guess this might be institutions building a long position at this level. I might be wrong thou.

  10. #20
    Senior Member sarapano's Avatar
    279
    05/06/2017
    ____________

    This week will be your deciding week to get gbp. Ill be on the lookout for opportunities. My view now is bearish on gbp. Particularly with the spate of terror attacks grappling UK. Which I view as a deterent.

    For usd, the essential event is going to be comey's testimony on thursday. Based on the consequences and markets response, I will decide about what to do with my position.
    Aside from that, I am not overly worried about the economic datas coming from the US this past week. I expect readings that are mixed. I do not expect any major bullish usd news nowadays. Possibly even more bearish news.

    The one reading I will be watching is us crude oil inventory. This will give me an idea on if oil prices will rise/fall in th long run.
    Some analyst expect prices to reach $45, which I find very impossible. But since they're the specialist and its not just one or 2 analyst. I will be toggling my limit entrance to 46.5 as a precautionary step.
    There are talks that OPEC could have another round of cuts. But if it is sufficient to increase prices is a major question mark to me.

    Update

    Brent Crude Oil
    Saudi, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar sending oil prices up.
    As I am unsure of the long term consequences of the, my assurance of a bullish rebound have been shrouded. I will temporary hold out about taking a position in crude before I have a clearer understanding

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