1400 - U.S. EXISTING HOME SALES FOR AUGUST
National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases
existing home sales for August. Economists in a Reuters
survey forecast a median 6.18 million annualized unit
total versus 6.33 million annualized units in July.
Barclays Capital say: 'Weakness in a wide foundation of home indiors indies that sales of existing homes probably fell further last month, and the recent declines in mortgage rates probably occurred too late to get much of a positive impact on August earnings'
you're right that existing home sales aren't new inputs, but in terms of discerning the trend in the home market this number is interesting since some 85 percent of overall house sales include of the present stock. Housing wealth in turn, is an essential element in the wealth, and if homes aren't selling, that may indior wider softeness in the market.
Additionally, Econoday (who I nabbed the chart under), note that home sales tend to generate lots of further cost (fridges etc).
Ever the optimist I visit 30-year mortgage rates are a few 50bps more economical than 3 weeks ago. This could provide a cushion to the market in weeks data.
You're right that existing home sales aren't new inputs, but in terms of discerning the trend in the housing market this number is intriguing because some 85 percent of overall home sales include of the existing stock. Housing wealth in turn, is a very important element in the overall wealth, and if homes aren't selling, that may indior wider softeness in the market.
Hmmm... maybe there's reason why US needs to look at this piece of indior indeed. Its the market goes, although not only all about creation.
since you're on the trade floor, what is the market chatter on the current state of USD? Are individuals SERIOUSLY considering the Existing Home Sales number as a confirmation of bearish USD?
Quite new, I'm. It has been a joy and a privilege. At interacting at a way, so here I'm making my first attempt. I see home sales as an indiion of a market in the event the numbers are high because people are buying, getting Mortgages etc., versus a market if existing homes earnings are reduced, like now!
I watched a stat yesterday said that foreclosures are up 53%!!! in august versus 2005!
I would say re the housing mkt in the united states, it's seen as vital in discerning the total strength of the economy and seems to have moved to a more central position about the FX radar. When this was true for the UK market indiors appeared to have an effect, but the mkt is less concerned with UK home prices and thus the significance of the indiors has receded. For now, I would be watching US home begins, existing and new home sales and home prices.
I just done a historical chart study on Current Home Sales (sadly dont have enough time to post them all here for now). I discovered this:
1. If the currency pair has made movementrs in the last 15 minutes coming to the news time, the answer will be bad. ie, priced in. (jan, may, jun, aug)
2. If the currency pair is quite quiet (Feb, Mar, Apr, jul), the movement will probably be gradual, slow and perfect for newcomer to enter despite a slow broker. (I expect it will be silent after...)
3. BUT when the 1st minute move is quite powerful, hmm... we will be able to input anymore.
This will be my 1st Existing Home Sales newstrade. I am hoping we get great gradual move. BUT is this possible considering the current USD atmosphere? I bet a lot of individuals are seeing this number as confirmation to get a bad USD (which will cause USD to loose big time reasons).... Home, as most economist have said to dropped poorly. BUT what we are going to trade isn't the number but also the deviation into the consensus. . Which makes it dificult to predict. . x(
Nice quick analysis . I've got no idea about impacts but I always look at news for my medium term perspective. HSBC's daily FX Edge notice states:
'In the united states, existing home sales (10:00 ET) are predicted to fall for the fifth month running in August, together with the market anticipating a decline to 6.20mn -- the lowest level since January 2004. The market remains very sensitive to the housing data and some number beneath 6M units will see bonds rally and the dollar sell off in a material fashion.'
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