US Existing Home Sales -
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thread: US Existing Home Sales

  1. #11
    Junior Member sarai's Avatar
    27
    Nice quick analysis . I've got no idea about impacts but I always look at news for my medium term perspective. HSBC's daily FX Edge notice states:

    'In the united states, existing home sales (10:00 ET) are predicted to fall for the fifth month running in August, together with the market anticipating a decline to 6.20mn -- the lowest level since January 2004. The market remains very sensitive to the housing data and some number beneath 6M units will see bonds rally and the dollar sell off in a material fashion.'

    A substance style ... I really like the verbiage!

  2. #12
    Senior Member raqwl.deji's Avatar
    108
    This housing data should be rather significant today, yet another decline is going to probably be the nail in the coffin for the US housing market.

    I believe the information will be poor, but I might be biased since im trying to buy a home in the next 12 months:

  3. #13
    The stats will probably be bad, buy the Euro/USD...

  4. #14
    Junior Member sadsuky's Avatar
    26
    this home data should be fairly important today, yet another big decline will probably be the nail in the coffin for the US home market.

    I think the data will be awful, but I may be biased since im trying to buy a house in the next 12 weeks:
    Agreed. Tough to go wrong shorting USD across the board.

    Just advice; not a recommendation. ( oh come on MM!!)

  5. #15
    Junior Member sarai's Avatar
    27
    I am the nail which sticks out, and will likley get hammered.

    EUR/USD is down now and is bouncing around 1.2760. Bloomberg has tales of bullish bond tales, and Reuters has stories with titles like (US housing slump may prompt Fed to cut rates). Much more USD bearish can the mkt get I wonder?
    If the IMM positions hadn't revealed a substantial trimming of USD bearish trades I would have been more confident with my USD bullish view. Its all just conjecture as it is.

  6. #16
    Hmmm, not so sure anymore...
    I will be shorting any spike towards 9070/80. .

    Agreed. Tough to go wrong shorting USD across the board.

    Just information; not a recommendation. ( oh come on MM!!)

  7. #17
    Junior Member sarai's Avatar
    27
    Sept 25 (Reuters) - The following is information on U.S. existing
    house sales from the National Association of Realtors
    (seasonally adjusted annual rates):

    Units Sold (in mlns) Aug July (Prev) Aug'05
    Entire Current Homes 6.300 6.330 6.330 7.210
    Single Family 5.510 5.510 5.510 6.280
    Condos/Co-ops 0.793 0.822 0.818 0.928

    Units Sold, Pct Change Aug July (Prev) Aug06/05
    Total Existing Homes -0.5 -4.1 -4.1 -12.6
    Single Family UNCH -5.0 -5.0 -12.3
    Condos/Co-ops -3.5 3.3 2.8 -14.5

    TOTAL EXISTING HOMES:
    Aug July (Prev) Aug'05
    Median Price (1,000s) 225.0 230.0 230.0 229.0
    Note--Median sales price is the midpoint where half of the
    houses sold for more and half for less.

    Aug July (Prev) Aug'05
    Units Available (mlns) 3.918 3.861 3.856 2.841
    Months' Worth of Supply 7.5 7.3 7.3 4.7

    Units Sold By Area, seasonally adjusted, in 1,000s:
    Aug July (Prev) Aug'05
    Northeast 1,070.0 1,050.0 1,050.0 1,210.0
    Midwest 1,440.0 1,430.0 1,430.0 1,620.0
    South 2,510.0 2,530.0 2,530.0 2,710.0
    West 1,290.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,670.0

    Median Price By Area, unadjusted, in 1,000s of dollars:
    Aug July (Prev) Aug'05
    Northeast 271.0 276.0 276.0 282.0
    Midwest 176.0 177.0 178.0 178.0
    South 184.0 193.0 192.0 189.0
    West 345.0 347.0 348.0 344.0

    Aug July (Prev) Aug'05
    Avg 30-Year Rate (Pct) 6.52 6.76 6.76 5.82
    Avg. Rate is the Freddie Mac average commnt rate for
    30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

    FORECAST:
    Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast:
    U.S. Aug existing home sales at 6.18 mln unit rate

    --
    on second thoughts my cut and glue attempts are not so great!

  8. #18
    As the consequence was much better usd acquired strength.

    However, the amount remains completely USD poor... so I went buying when it dipped.

    LOL! I forgot to increase the TP. . it exited with 14

    PS. IBFX raised the spread to 9 pips... surely straddles will be stopped outside instantly with this. . Hmmm... seems like IBFX has followed the OANDA cue. To all using iBFX news traders, be carefull from now on...

  9. #19
    Junior Member uriss's Avatar
    11
    The data was not too bad after all. Instead of the expectation of less than -1 percent, the figure coame out only about -0.5 percent. Hence and GBP/USD drop about 20 pips when the data came out

  10. #20
    Member ina99's Avatar
    98
    Right on the nose... I just sold one of mine. So, perhaps it is me that caused the issue... LOL, Scott




    this housing data should be rather important today, another huge decline will be the nail in the coffin for the US housing market.

    I think that the data will be bad, but I might be biased because im hoping to buy a home in the next 12 weeks:
    ECONOMIC REPORT
    Existing-home prices fall for 1st time in 11 years



    By MarketWatch Rex Nutting
    Last Update: 10:03 AM ET Sep 25, 2006





    lt;LABEL class=StoryContent identifiion=StoryContent_Contentgt;
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Median sales prices of existing homes dropped from year-ago levels in August for the first time in 11 years and just the first time in the previous 38 years, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.
    Sales of existing homes dropped 0.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million, the industry group said.
    Revenue have dropped five weeks in a row and in nine of the previous 12 months. Sales are down 12.6% in the past year. It's the cheapest sales pace since January 2004.
    The median price of an existing home dropped 1.7% to $225,000. It's the first time since April 1995 that prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis. It's the 2nd largest decline from the 30-year history of the realtors' poll, exceeded only by a 2.1% fall in November 1990.
    The price correction is a welcome development, '' said David Lereah, chief economists to the realtors group.
    The price fall has stopped the bleeding, Lereah said. Sales have hit bottom, he explained. Sellers are getting it.
    I am confident the housing industry is picking up, Lereah said in a media conference. Lereah expects prices to continue to fall for the rest of the calendar year, which would keep sales from falling.
    If that is so, we'll have achieved a soft landing, Lereah said.
    Economists were expecting sales to fall to about 6.18 million in August, according to a poll conducted by MarketWatch.
    Inventories of unsold houses rose to 3.92 million, a 7.5-month supply at the August sales pace, the most since April 1993.
    Sale of single family houses were unchanged at a 5.51 million annual pace. Condo sales fell 3.5% to 793,000.
    Sales fell 2.3% in the West and 0.8% from the South. Sales rose 1.9% in the Northeast and 0.7% in the Midwest.
    Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.
    lt;/LABELgt;

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