I wanted to clarify something. SammyJ got me thinking about some thing I wish to point out.
It may seem that I trade against the tendency alot and I am sure that makes most of you uneasy. I guess he is correct, I do. I don't always think of it the exact same way however. Typically, I'm positioning on range extremes. Not necessarily, but a lot of times. The cornerstone of my methodology is the following which I have studied through the last few years and you may have the ability to find other documented evidence of too.Markets spend the majority of their trading time in ranges, maybe not in trending. Only 6% of all trading days are fad days. 94 percent of trading days are regular days, or normal variation days. (Range Trading). I have spent the greater part of my trading career creating egies to trade what the market does over 80% of the time, which can be Range Trade. The trick of course would be to identify the range. The ADV on my charts stands for Adaptive Dynamic Value. In laymans terms, it truly means were is fair value for your day. It may change daily and that I really recalcualte it every trading hour but it isn't possible to convey this in a forum environment. While I take transactions near honest value, I'm trading with the trend as identified by me personally.
Therefore I just wanted to clarify things a little.
Not much changed today when all was said and done. I had profits in shorts and JPY longs of about 100 points each , I am holding these trades with great profit but alot was awarded back to the dollar bears.
Here are the amounts for 2-1-2008.
EURUSD -(Close at 1.4860, 30 ticks) I am continuing to carry shorts from yesterday's 4891 range top. Remain brief, if you are brief. Traders can place new shorts or add ahead of 4891. Today's targets come in at 4715.
USDJPY - (Close at 106.44, 70 ticks) The USDJPY gave us a perfect entrance long tright at yesterday's range bottom of 105.70. Price moved up 100 points out of here.If you are long, remain long. New longs could be put ahead of this level if it supplies the chance. Today's targets come in at 107.78, then 109.18.
USDCHF - (Close at 1.0812, -13 ticks) I put longs today on the transfer above yesterday's range bottom at 1.0823. (Long at 1.0825). Remain, if you are long. New longs could be put now or before 1.0785 if the market goes back down. Today's targets are 1.0967, then 1.1072.
EURUSD (Close 1.4802)
If you have been following our progress to the Euro, we are brief from last week#8217;s 4891 range top. Currently up 106 ticks. If you're brief, remain brief and follow today#8217;s analysis.
For Monday I expect the EURUSD to trade down to the 4780 at Asia. This area has the potential to maintain the range reverse and bottom price back to 4850. If this materializes, short-term traders can look to set new shorts on a push up to the 4850 level. Target for the transaction would be 4718. Ideally, risk should be above that the 4895 level.
In the event the 4780 degree gives way, then continue to hold brief into 4718. Cover all shorts in this level. This will establish our tendency and is a degree that is very important. Whether this degree holds and price moves up, look to set longs to a return . Current target is 4850.
If price were to move down and settle under 4718 prior to my next upgrade, then I'd look to set shorts on a push back up near this degree. Current target is sold in at 4572.
NA UPDATE: The EURUSD reached 4850 and has been quickly rejected. You should be brief from this amount with a target of 4718. In order to reach this target, we will need to move down through 4780.
USDJPY (Close 106.48)
If you have been following our progress to the Yen, we are extended from last week#8217;s range bottom at 105.70. Currently up 78 ticks. If you're long, remain long and follow today#8217;s analysis.
For Monday I expect the USDJPY to Check the 106.30 degree in Asia. This is a vital degree and my prejudice is for it to hold. Traders can look to set new longs at 106.30. Target 107.24, if price moves through this area then target 107.75. Exit all longs at this amount and wait.
In case 106.30 doesn't grip and price settles below this amount, then I'd depart current longs and set shorts near this degree in 106.30 to get a move down to 105.40. Cover shorts here and await value to construct for the next directional move.
NA UPDATE: Continue to maintain long. Watch the 107.24 degree. This degree has the potential to reverse direction for the session. My prejudice is for this amount to give way, if it will target 107.75.
No prior analysis to follow.
For Monday I expect the GBPUSD to maneuver down to 9624 at Asia/Europe, if this degree holds price should undo to get a re-test of 1.9682 at London. Short term competitive traders can set longs from 9624 and target 9682. If price continues upward through the 9682 degree, then target 9735 and depart all longs at 9735. Await value to construct. If 9735 holds, then traders should look to set shorts to get a move back down.
If price moves down through 9624 in Asia/Europe and holds under, then traders can set shorts to get a move down to 9509. Cover all shorts. A move below this level is quite significant.
NA UPDATE: This worked out perfectly. The pair made a low of 9625. You should have set longs and held through 9682 and exited at 9735. We are currently trading in 9764. My prejudice is down from but I would like to determine value construct and the pair move back under 9735 before putting up shorts. I'd recommend being flat at this point.
USDCHF (Close 1.0892)
If you have been following our progress to the Franc, we are extended at 1.0825 from last week#8217;s range bottom. Currently up 25 ticks. If you're long remain long and follow today#8217;s analysis.
For Monday I expect the Franc to trade up to 1.0926 in Asia/Europe. This amount has the potential to reverse price action; nevertheless my prejudice is for price to keep up to 1.0964. Exit all longs at this amount and await value to construct for further directional details.
If price moves down in Asia/Europe, Start Looking for 1.0819 to maintain. Traders can set new longs from this amount to get a move up to 1.0964. Risk on this trade should be under the 1.0780 area.
The key for your Swissy is that the open in Asia, I am searching for price to move up but it isn't completely clear.
NA UPDATE We did trade up but haven't reached 1.0925 (High of 1.0919). I continue to hold into 1.0925. Watch this amount attentively, if we move through here target 1.0964 and depart. If we move down, 1.0819 is a legitimate target for this particular session. My current bias is up.
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