IS not it fine pin? I am frightened of BOC's statments (BOC's Dodge says that he sees some need for further US dollar depreciation; says CAD has already apprecaited considerably, therefore this may mute the effect on USD. /CAD downside).
What do you think?
The weekly chart shows that USD/CAD move deccelerated and change is close.
Oil moving down gradually, oil stock data climbed, FED maintains hawkish tone. I am affraid such dovish comments coming from BOC or I'd have gone long.
Any comments?
Canadas Export boosted because of oil price rally.
I recall I researched actual exchange rate in macroeconomy. RER = 1/NEM *I1/I2
RER - Actual exchange rate
Nem - nominal exchange rate (it's 1/nem because of USD/CAD quote)
I1 - price index in Canada
I2 - price index in US
plus I've heard that Export is supported/discouraged with shift of actual exchange rate rather than nominal. So if we believe just oil in Canada's basket of products and oil's share in exports we will observe that nominally CAD does not discourage oil exports. So dovish opinions about USD/CAD out of BOC is applicable. (Here could be achieved good macro research)
I am going to look USD/CAD carafully (jointly with oil price)
thanks