No one can forecast the direction of a trend, its a paradox -
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thread: No one can forecast the direction of a trend, its a paradox

  1. #11
    I think with basic technical analysis, you are able to predict the change in a fashion which has a little level of success. With innovative technical analysis, this can be more likely. Including fashion lines, elliott wave, hurst theory, etc. would put you in a fairly good position to forecast trends successfully. Drawing simple fashion lines, however, will not do much.

  2. #12
    Junior Member alitaoxrgog's Avatar
    26
    Forex cannot be predicted with no term accuracy. There are some patterns. They work. Sometimes they do not do the job. You are all wasting your lives.

  3. #13
    If we specify analysis as :
    A detailed examination of the components or arrangement of something, typically as a basis for discussion or interpretation

    And we know the analytical process as four measures (no one):
    Gather Facts
    Create Findings
    Make a prediction
    But do not be a fortuneteller


    Advisors should start with confirmed facts, employ expert knowledge to produce plausible but less certain customs, and even prediction, once the prediction is appropriately qualified. Analysts should not, however, engage in fortunetelling which does not have any basis in fact.

    Therefore, Looking at Forex through this lens the previous posters are correct... Prediction isn't possible because that would be fortunetelling... No one can forecast the motion. Forex could be forecasted, but just with a percent chance of succeeding. Looking at things this way we must think, as the good Mark Douglas put it, probabilistically. Read, Trading in the Zone. There are 5 important tenets of a mind. They are:

    1- Anything could occur
    2- You don't have to know What's going to occur to make money
    3- There's a random distribution between wins and losses for any given pair of variables that define a border
    4- An edge is Only an indiion of a greater probability of one thing occurring over a second
    5- each second at the market is unique

  4. #14
    Junior Member Dovahkiin92's Avatar
    22
    What determines a profitable trade is not why you buy or sell, it is if you get out.
    The thing is the fact that the entrance does not mean a thing, because what actually makes the transaction profitable, is what happens once you put in the market.

    And you don't know what market kind you are in, until you are in it :-)

  5. #15
    Junior Member alitaoxrgog's Avatar
    26
    What decides a profitable trade is not why you buy or sell, it is when you get out. The paradox is that the entrance does not mean something, as what really makes the transaction profitable, is what happens after you put in the market. And you do not understand what market kind you're in, until you're in it :--RRB-
    Hello Grambowski, I can not figure out how you rationalize that. When you enter is half the story - you can not just jump in if unless you are well prepared to weather the outcome of such a movement, which can be drawdown. Accepting big or infinite drawdown could be interpreted as the very definition of high risk since there's no guarantee the market will eventually reverse. Your goal as a trader ought to be to market on top and buy in the bottom, constantly, and figuring out how to do this is a huge chunk of the journey. Once you discover high probability areas to enter that offer low or no drawdown, then it is time to fix the other half of the mystery in choosing an exit point.

  6. #16
    Junior Member Dovahkiin92's Avatar
    22
    quote Hello Grambowski, I can not figure out how you rationalize that. When you enter is half this story - you can not just jump in if unless you are prepared to weather the consequence of such a movement, which can be drawdown. Accepting large or infinite drawdown could be translated as the very definition of high risk as there is no guarantee that the market will gradually reverse. Your aim as a trader should be to sell on very top and buy at the bottom, constantly, and figuring out the way to do this is a huge chunk of this journey. When you find high probability places...
    Hi , what exactly makes a trade profitable? What happens after you put in the market. I did not mention anything about position sizing within my article and that I didn't say you should let your winners operate.
    You clearly found something that is right for youpersonally, and our approaches are very different, but you don't need to be right 50 percent of your transactions to make money in the markets.

  7. #17
    Junior Member alitaoxrgog's Avatar
    26
    quote Hi , what makes a commerce profitable? What happens once you put in the market. I did not say anything about position sizing in my article and that I did not say you need to let your winners operate. You obviously found something that is right for you, and our approaches are extremely different, but you do not have to be right 50 percent of your trades to earn money in the markets.
    Totally agree that you don't have to be right 50 percent of this time, you'll be correct far less. However I did not mention anything about position sizing, I am only making the point that in case you don't select your entry carefully you will by logical extension encounter drawdown or paper reduction. In case you have a set price in which you know that you're wrong and you find that drawdown acceptable compared to what you expect to earn if you're right, then I guess that's fine. But far too many people decide to jump on the market and when it doesn't go their way, the objective is hope and pray. They have used to this since they're trading based on a crossover or any other technical indior that actually doesn't give them a plausible way of determining when they've made an error, as these approaches are based on voodoo, not base market mechanisms of buying and selling. Sometimes that temporarily functions, but it is going to guarantee bankruptcy. It is simply illogical to state choosing your entry is not significant, since the entrance point is the thing that determines how much risk you incur before you know that you're wrong and stop outside for whatever risk tolerance you have set.

    Which of these two trades would you rather have been in, which had less risk? Both of them made goal, but the obvious answer should be the one with less risk of carrying a hit in your bank account. Trading like the first picture is mad!






  8. #18
    Junior Member Dovahkiin92's Avatar
    22
    ,
    I know we may not agree on this, but to me Technical Analysis is sort of voodoo for me. The reason, is that you're trying to predict something based on the last, to continue later on.
    People are extremely good at seeing patterns that aren't actually there, and if you create a full random chart, your mind immediately draw S/R, channels and all sort of things, that has never been demoned to work, just like voodoo. I am not saying TA and PA doesn't do the job, all I am saying is that perhaps the reason it works is because of your high risk:benefit or how you handle your trades.

    In the end of the day, it doesn't matter what you trade. The results justify the means.

  9. #19
    It is all about the probability, the question you need to ask isn't if it can be forcasted or maybe not,
    but exactly what are the chances that the trend will reverse?
    Should you think It's a higher chance in percentage than the winrate of your own method,
    if your hit rate is 50% then if you utilize 2:1 reward to risk, you simply need to be right more than 25 percent to brake even,
    so if you think It's a 26% chance it will undo, you need to exchange it and also be happy if you get stopped as You would acquire in the long run,
    nobody actually know for sure unless you can push the market will soon millions of lots, then you know for sure

  10. #20
    Junior Member alitaoxrgog's Avatar
    26
    , I know we may not agree on this, but to me Technical Analysis is type of voodoo for me. The reason, is that you're attempting to predict something depending on the past, to continue in the future. People are very good at seeing patterns that aren't actually there, and if you produce a complete arbitrary chart, your brain immediately draw S/R, channels and all kind of things, that's never been proven to work, exactly like voodoo. I am not saying TA and PA does not work, all I am saying is that maybe the reason it works is due to your high risk:benefit...
    Grabowski I think this is a completely rational position and for you to have. I recently admit that I was not earning money in Forex at a different thread, and had obtained a few years Hiatus from the spectacle. That said looking back to things with a new perspective there seems to be a reason behind demand and supply Concepts on the chart because in order for institutions to have the ability to buy or sell an asset at a particular price consolidation has to occur so that the patterns for demand and supply despite being sold commercially appeal to me at least. I began a new demo account that had a success in a few days with good trades of low-risk high-reward but naturally that's entirely feasible to be fortune or variance.

    I can make it public just for shits and giggles.

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