Follow the trend on high timeframes - The holy grail?
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thread: Follow the trend on high timeframes - The holy grail?

  1. #1

    Follow the trend on high timeframes - The holy grail?

    I believe I may discovered the holy grail and it is the easiest I've ever imagine, just follow the tendency on high timeframes before it finishes. That is all.

    Allow me to clarify my ideas: a week back I thinked that Foreign Exchange has been a totally random market, but some fellow traders from here show me the truth: when a market has tendency, it isn't arbitrary, and present myself to the famous s System, after reading the book The comprehensive turtletrader I understand that tendency just exists in large timeframes, below that there's too much volatility also it is hard to predict the price moves, and that it is impossible to predict when the trend finishes, so you have to follow it till it finishes in the following breakout.

    And the best indior I've found to reveal the tendency and its own breakouts is Heiken i, so the rules of the system are:
    - When the final monthly pub is white, shut your sell position and enter long.
    - When the final monthly pub is red, shut your buy position and enter brief.
    - Use 400 pips of SL.

    Attachment 937416
    I've written a basic EA based on this method (I've restricted the calculations to the first moment of the first 7 days of each month to optimize the backtest, you can delete that, the results will be the same, but it requires nearly 10 times longer), you may download it at no cost, here are the results for a backtest in the past ten years, by 2002/01/01 untill 2012/01/01:

    Attachment 937407
    It turns 1000$ to 61000$!!! Adding a drop in performance during 2009 if the balance falls from 44000 to 17000 during the large volatility of that calendar year, and it recovers itself later!

    I would love so much your comments and critics to this particular method.
    https://www.cliqforex.com/attachment...3127393748.mq4

  2. #2
    I had a similar thought when I first began looking at heiken ashi candles and I believe it will work especially well on eurusd but just how much patience could you need to exchange a system like this on monthly charts?
    This is actually the worst aspect of this system, you have to hold trades during months! And the majority of traders don't have enough patience to get this done, but I think that is the big guys do they buy or sell and go away, I don't imagine a multimillionaire scalping for example.

  3. #3
    Why you've moved this thread to newcomer discussion?

    I understand I am a rookie but... That is a system, with a coded EA, it is very straightforward, I understand, but it works nicely...

  4. #4
    Senior Member Fauly's Avatar
    141
    What if you turn it into a weekly EA and include Trix indi to it. If quick trix changes it indies the end of a trend and by my count -- will save some missing $.

  5. #5
    1 Attachment(s)
    what if you turn it into a weekly EA and add Trix indi to it. If fast trix changes it indies the ending of a trend and by my count -- will save some lost $.
    I don't know what's Trix indi, I have modified the EA to backtest it in Weekly charts with Heiken i, too with SL down to 200 pips, here you have the code :

    Inserted Code // ------------------------------------------------------------------ //| HA_W. Mq4 | //| | //| #91;url#93;http://www.cliqforex.com/#91;/url#93; | // ------------------------------------------------------------------ #property copyright #property link #91;url#93;http://www.cliqforex.com/#91;/url#93; //-- buffers double ExtMapBuffer1#91;32#93;; double ExtMapBuffer2#91;32#93;; double ExtMapBuffer3#91;32#93;; double ExtMapBuffer4#91;32#93;; //-- // ------------------------------------------------------------------ //| Custom indior initialization function | //|------------------------------------------------------------------| int init() return(0); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ //| Custom indior deinitialization function | // ------------------------------------------------------------------ int deinit() return(0); // ------------------------------------------------------------------ //| Custom indior iteration function | // ------------------------------------------------------------------ int start() double haOpen, haHigh, haLow, haClose, Op, Cl; static int tiket_buy, tiket_sell; static bool buy = false, sell = true; double price_sell, price_buy, SL, vol; static double vol_buy, vol_sell; if(DayOfWeek()==1) if(Hour()==0 Minute()==1) int pos = 30; while(posgt;=0) haOpen=(ExtMapBuffer3#91;pos 1#93; ExtMapBuffer4#91;pos 1#93;-RRB-/2; haClose=(iOpen(NULL,PERIOD_W1,pos) iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_W1,pos) iLow(NULL,PERIOD_W1,pos) iClose(NULL,PERIOD_W1,pos))/4; haHigh=MathMax(iHigh(NULL,PERIOD_W1,pos), MathMax(haOpen, haClose)); haLow=MathMin(iLow(NULL,PERIOD_W1,pos), MathMin(haOpen, haClose)); if (haOpenlt;haClose) ExtMapBuffer1#91;pos#93;=haLow; ExtMapBuffer2#91;pos#93;=haHigh; else ExtMapBuffer1#91;pos#93;=haHigh; ExtMapBuffer2#91;pos#93;=haLow; ExtMapBuffer3#91;pos#93;=haOpen; ExtMapBuffer4#91;pos#93;=haClose; pos--; //-- Op=ExtMapBuffer3#91;1#93;; Cl=ExtMapBuffer4#91;1#93;; vol = NormalizeDouble(AccountBalance()/10000,1); if(vol==0) vol=0.1; SL=0.02; price_sell= NormalizeDouble(Bid,Digits); price_buy= NormalizeDouble(Ask,Digits); if ((Oplt;Cl)(sell==true))//BUY OrderClose(tiket_sell, vol_sell, price_buy, 50, Red); sell=false; vol_buy=vol; tiket_buy = OrderSend(Symbol(), OP_BUY, vol, price_buy, 50, price_buy-SL, 0, BUY,10000,0,Green); buy=true; if ((Opgt;Cl)(buy==true))//SELL OrderClose(tiket_buy, vol_buy, price_sell, 50, Green); buy=false; vol_sell=vol; tiket_sell = OrderSend(Symbol(), OP_SELL, vol, price_sell, 50, price_sell SL, 0, SELL,20000,0,Red); sell=true; return(0);
    The outcomes are good too for the exact same period of time, but worse than for monthy chart, it turns 1000$ into 17000$:
    https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...day-trade.html

  6. #6
    Glad to see your opinion on the s has changed, keep this up.

    Like the simplicity. What other indiors did you consider before landing the heiken ashi? There are other indiors that smooth out volatility into a larger extent than the HA, such as HMA, T3MA, heck even smoothed HA.

    As you are looking at trend after, why don't you add pyramiding positions with moving quits to optimize returns on trends as is mentioned at the Entire s book.

  7. #7
    Glad to understand your opinion on the s has changed, keep it up. .
    I must thank you for that, the s System has opened my eyes, thank you

    Like the simplicity. What additional indiors did you consider before landing on the heiken ashi? There are additional indiors that smooth out volatility to a larger extent compared to the HA, such as HMA, T3MA, heck even smoothed HA.
    A lot of indiors... I don't recall all, SMA, Stochastic, Fibonacci, etc.. Nothing works for me.

    I also code an EA based on smoothed HA plus it doesn't work, it finds the trend change too late....

    As you're now considering fashion after, why not add pyramiding rankings with moving stops to optimize returns on trends as is cited in the Entire s book.
    I have an EA established in HA that modify the SL in every bar, but this one with fixed SL gives me better results.

    I will backtest pyramiding shortly together with the OP EA, maybe it takes me more time since I am a noob programmer but I'll try it

  8. #8
    I've tested however the pyramiding and it does not work, it blows off the account at the start of the evaluation...

    Considering 2002/01/01:

    Attachment 937461
    Considering 2002/05/01 (start of a long uptrend):

    Attachment 937460https://www.cliqforex.com/attachment...6928271105.mq4

  9. #9
    I had a similar thought when I first began looking at heiken ashi candles and I believe it does work especially well on eurusd but just how much patience could you want to trade a system like this on monthly charts?

  10. #10
    OK the HA ea works better, from 1k to 61k more than ten years, averaged out that's 51% increase compounded each year. Wonder what the next 10 years will bring

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