Any thoughts why rouble dropped instead of strengthened, whilst oil went on friday?
 |
 |
Any thoughts why rouble dropped instead of strengthened, whilst oil went on friday?
Two months has almost gone.
A new picture arrived
Greatest
D.P.
But to be completely honest, shorting out of here is a bet ... . I am basically relying upon either (1) that the Central Bank to intervene; or (2) the Ukrainian situation to cool considerably. Who the hell knows if both of those will happen soon ... . I do not.
I am also surprised that this pair is not being looked at more. I understand that traders are likely to shy away because of spread, but I imagine it warms up throughout the London session so it's as easy as, say, GBP/NZD, that is frequently approximately 5 pips (can not swear to that, however).
To me, that almost 1 dollar US swap is what sells it. Also, I would ordinarily shy away from a currency where a Central Bank frequently intervenes. Here, however, the intervention was to bolster the Ruble, which would benefit a brief position from this level.
That is my thinking anyhoo ... .
My USD/RUB short executed at 37.166 and contains a target price of 36.498. The spread is currently a whopping 30 pips, and FXCM is currently quoting the rollover/swap on the sell side as .96, which is awesome.
I wish to short this pair ... . The favorable swap for a short is incredibly attractive.
I moved all the way back to 6/2010 (which is all of the information my broker has, perhaps because it was simply not traded before), and it's at an all-time high.
Regrettably, the price movement turns on events in the Ukraine more than anything else, and it's currently not possible to tell what Putin will do next (in other words, unless he's trading Forex, in which case I would short here if I had been him, draw his troops and gear, cash his place, and then lather, rinse, repeat). However, the economic background is one of raising sanctions on the Russian Federation by both the EU and the U.S. that will most likely have the effect of devaluing the currency (consequently driving USD/RUB up further). Furthermore, a decrease in the value of the Ruble will have adverse economic consequences on the R.F., as its customers will have less and less buying power for foreign goods as well as the downturn in exports because of sanctions will include additional fuel to worsening economic conditions. Ordinarily, a slump in the value of a currency would reinforce exports since they become more affordable to foreign buyers.
Naturally, Russia's Central Bank can sell dollars and buy up rubles to reinforce the currency since they have done previously. Http://rbth.com/business/2014/03/21/...oat_35269.html
For that reason, I am likely to take a quantified risk position (comparatively modest lot as compared to other entrances) short the currency should price strike 37.15 using a TP of 36.239.
Where go USD/RUB !!! 37.10 ?!
Except for the last two times...
NATO meeting to be held on the 3rd and 4th Sep 2014 to talk about Ukraine intervention. This ought to mix up things a little.
Should be an with this pair.
We have started out strong and have the capacity to hit the 36.4 handle or over when we get good information from the united states.
At this level I will place a different short for investment however I may take a while on the excursion.
The interest rate increase. I am not edued but on the very surface of stuff, such as the NZD, what isn't to like about 8% interest? I understand the pair is illiquid, and I understand the events now are filled. I am not an enemy of Russia but my country is working hard to propagandize the US which 'we need to go to war.' Military-grade propaganda has been 'lawfully' used domestically in the united states. There was a law passed in Congress changing the 'principles' from restricting it only to utilize abroad.
Reply With Quote