I wish to short this pair ... . The favorable swap for a short is incredibly attractive.
I moved all the way back to 6/2010 (which is all of the information my broker has, perhaps because it was simply not traded before), and it's at an all-time high.
Regrettably, the price movement turns on events in the Ukraine more than anything else, and it's currently not possible to tell what Putin will do next (in other words, unless he's trading Forex, in which case I would short here if I had been him, draw his troops and gear, cash his place, and then lather, rinse, repeat). However, the economic background is one of raising sanctions on the Russian Federation by both the EU and the U.S. that will most likely have the effect of devaluing the currency (consequently driving USD/RUB up further). Furthermore, a decrease in the value of the Ruble will have adverse economic consequences on the R.F., as its customers will have less and less buying power for foreign goods as well as the downturn in exports because of sanctions will include additional fuel to worsening economic conditions. Ordinarily, a slump in the value of a currency would reinforce exports since they become more affordable to foreign buyers.
Naturally, Russia's Central Bank can sell dollars and buy up rubles to reinforce the currency since they have done previously. Http://rbth.com/business/2014/03/21/...oat_35269.html
For that reason, I am likely to take a quantified risk position (comparatively modest lot as compared to other entrances) short the currency should price strike 37.15 using a TP of 36.239.
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