drgoodvibes Journal
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thread: drgoodvibes Journal

  1. #1
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159

    drgoodvibes Journal

    My Daily Journal to keep me honest. .

    My continuing audited (updated daily) FX trading results are here http://www.myfxbook.com/members///52322

    My journal and website and assorted rants found here. . http://www.omegasupreme.com

  2. #2
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    Current results, although not having submitted lately I have been trading nonstop. Things have changed lately with the major FX currency trends against the USD having finally reversed. USDHUF, USDTRY have experienced major reversals. I have lightened up a bit in my rankings, I had mentioned previously in my FX blog videos that I would be closing the bulk of my rankings out and I have done so. The currency pairs that I am still hanging ontu and trading would be the following - AUDUSD, USDHUF, USDTRY, CHFZAR, ZARJPY, EURPLN, GBPCAD and EURCZK. All are commodity driven or market currency pairs.
    Full system results are in the following link, though I am discovering that my calculations are now more accurate then those here on myfxbook.com. My Sharpe ratio is not looking half bad right now. ;--RRB-
    http://www.myfxbook.com/members///52322



    Omega SP-500 Trading Start (13Sept10)

    Sep-10 6.97percent 1.72% Oct-10 15.29% 3.69% Nov-10 10.04percent 1.22%


    Complete Realized Returns 35.71% 6.76% Net Asset Value 39.33percent



    Average Return 10.77% 2.21% Standard Deviation 4.21% 1.30% Risk Free Rate 1% 1% Sharpe Ratio 2.32 0.93

  3. #3
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    As always today's rundown of trading and market comment was reside blogged on Twitter. You are able to see the actual trading reside on my twitterfeed in http://www.twitter.com/uupstart feel free to add me since I will be posting my trades and market comment live during the day.
    Again now was a bit of an odd day trading the volatility breakouts as there was really a bit of whipsaws - together with the first dawn of the New York Forex session giving up some pips on the down movement of that I was able to ch approximately 5 Pips, then lots of dip until an uptrend began to form. Where an X has been indied in the chart was an entrance that I ended up missing since I was reading some news post - I did not chase the price however and only chalked that up to stupidity and remained from the EURUSD! The other two entries afterwards were not quite fruitfull and matter of fact made me feel a little bit nervous. Click Read More To view the chart.
    So that I would end up getting from them quickly as I kept believing that there would be a return. There was! My number #1 rule is to preserve capital! So I have a tendency to dislike any way reaching drawdowns, besides the fact that my stops are extremely tight. So if I can I will try to escape in Break even or 1 pip and avoid turning a winner into a loser.
    Trading this FX pair is not always easy so I sniped what I could now trying to avoid taking any losses that was quite fortunate.
    Here are the outcomes


    Open date Cloes Date Forex Pair Action Open Close Pips
    2009.11.17 15:34 2009.11.17 15:39 EURUSD Sell 1.4843 1.4838 5
    11.17.2009 15:33 11.17.2009 16:31 EURUSD Buy 1.48727 1.48729 0.2
    11.17.2009 15:25 11.17.2009 15:32 EURUSD Buy 1.48682 1.48682 0

  4. #4
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    I'm back to making journal entries but this time only doing videoblogs. . With just a bit of text comment. .

    Forex Trading for Yield... bringing the carry trade back however different. This time it's about Commodities markets and Exotic large yielding emerging markets. A profound technical and fundamental explanation on how best to trade these kinds of Forex currency pairs for both yield and capital profits.

    V-Journal link for Sept 28th here. .



    Major returns on USDHUF, USDTRY and AUDUSD riding the trend on a depreciating USD and bullish on Commodities and Emerging markets that have high yielding interest rate differentials. Riding a Risk On for Yield wave. . Loing the most recent carry trade to get out sized yields.
    As of Today here are the outcomes -- and check out the video explaning my ideas on todays news, transactions etc..
    13-Sept-10 Acct Start
    Current Date 28-Sep-10

    Realized PnL 6.09% NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 17.68%

    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 3.08% TSX (Realized PnL) 1.12%

  5. #5
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    Considering all the other nations of the developed world racing to devalue their currencies we're seeing massive downward moves at the USD accross most currency FX pairs however the most interesting are those with a high return (ie pay the maximum interest, swap every day) as traders and investors out there ditch there dollar denominated assets and move into high yielding assets as assets such as U.S Treasuries are paying next to nothing with all the specter of additional quantitative easing which will have a inherent effects of depreciating the dollar making investors run to the hills.

    I am still SHORT USDHUF, USDTRY and LONG AUDUSD. Watch the movie to see and hear the reason why. Model account is performing well now beating the SP-500 by a large margin, here are the results as of now.



    Current Date 29-Sep-10

    Realized PnL 6.16%
    NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 19.73%

    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 2.82%
    TSX (Realized PnL) 1.98%

  6. #6
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    Great consequences all week, having closed some places out only taking some profits and honestly fearful that USD can't tank eternally yesterday. . Well guess what USD retains on depreciating against these high yielding currencies that isn't a surprise. I personally believe that the US Fed / Government will last it is quantitative easing egy in order to literally inflate it is currency in order to pay back it has debts using a depreciated dollar. I can see that across so many distinct currencies now and my accounts outcomes are showing that. Having conservatively achieved 7.04percent of realized profits and 22.63percent of NAV at 1-Oct-2010



    Current Date 01-Oct-10

    Realized PnL 7.04%
    NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 22.63%

    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 2.95%
    TSX (Realized PnL) 1.82%

  7. #7
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    Profit taking was the major thought for today, with all the markets having gone far too much too quickly there was bound to be some profit taking particularly with numerous news statements this week. Non-farm etc will spook investors. I really don't believe much will happen this week until we get any news out otherwise it has currencies in a holding pattern. Which is fine by me as I am making dough off of this interest rate swap anyhow...





    13-Sept-10 Acct Start
    Current Date 04-Oct-10



    Realized PnL 8.35percent NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 21.91percent

    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 2.12percent TSX (Realized PnL) 1.49percent

    High Definition Strategy Sharpe
    Average OmegaSupreme Return 6.91% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.05percent Risk-Free Return 2.00percent Sharpe Ratio 4.66

    SP Index Fund Sharpe
    Average SP500 Return 2.74% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.43percent Risk-Free Return 2.00percent Sharpe Ratio 1.74

  8. #8
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    Back to Risk on attracts on big swings into high yield emerging markets. Which is great for us, Forex currencies trading that are USDHUF and USDTRY went on a tare while AUDUSD despite comparatively negative news still bounced back. Fantastic results.

    13-Sept-10 Acct Start
    Current Date 05-Oct-10



    Realized PnL 8.42percent NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 29.94percent

    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.25percent TSX (Realized PnL) 2.93percent

    OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
    Average OmegaSupreme Return 7.21% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.13percent Risk-Free Return 2.00percent Sharpe Ratio 4.59

    SP Index Fund Sharpe
    Average SP500 Return 3.05% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.77percent Risk-Free Return 2.00percent Sharpe Ratio 1.36

  9. #9
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    Despite performing well on all my current positions Foreign Exchange right now I am weary of everything getting a little heated against the USD. I'm not adding to any places for the upcoming few days, possibly searching for some cooling off before thinking about continueing to exchange for return on theUSDHUF, AUDUSD and USDTRY. I will see if I can grab some retracements before putting on any future rankings.



    13-Sept-10 Acct Start
    Current Date 06-Oct-10




    Realized PnL 9.07percent NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 32.11percent


    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.18percent TSX (Realized PnL) 2.96percent



    OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
    Average OmegaSupreme Return 7.52% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.27percent Risk-Free Return 2.00percent Sharpe Ratio 4.36



    SP Index Fund Sharpe
    Average SP500 Return 3.24% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.83percent Risk-Free Return 2.00percent Sharpe Ratio 1.49

  10. #10
    Senior Member jgaleras's Avatar
    159
    FX emerging markets are now coming to some trading range -- following trending and the dollar depreciating there had to be some profit taking coming up.


    13-Sept-10 Acct Start
    Current Date 08-Oct-10



    Realized PnL 9.18% NAV (Realized Unrealized PnL) 29.14%

    SP-500 (Realized PnL) 4.65% TSX (Realized PnL) 2.50%

    OmegaSupreme Strategy Sharpe
    Average OmegaSupreme Yield 7.76% Standard Deviation of Returns 1.32% Risk-Free Yield 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 4.37

    SP Index Fund Sharpe
    Average SP500 Yield 3.44% Standard Deviation of Returns 0.93% Risk-Free Yield 2.00% Sharpe Ratio 1.55

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