thread: Never Go Against the Trend?

I agree that everyone have different definitions on what fashion means. And most times when somebody speaks about tendency I dont think anybody knows what kind of fad is being discussed.
This is what I've been edued:
-Short term tendency is found from daily chart and maybe H4.
-Intermediate fad can be found on a week chart.
-Major fad is found on monthly chart. This is the actual trend.

And then how can you understand what a fad is? As far as I understand an uptrend makes higher highs and higher lows. A downward tendency produces lower highs and lower extremities.

Here is some good information for those who are interested:
https://www.tradeciety.com/how-to-kn...-of-the-trend/
https://www.tradeciety.com/lesson/ho...end-direction/
https://www.tradeciety.com/how-to-kn...ngth-of-trend/
https://www.tradeciety.com/lesson/ma...rend-vs-range/

Just need to remember to Buy Low and Sell High that is the key.

quote This was discussed, sometimes heatedly, at Big Mike's forum. In the event that you wish, check it out. The fact is there are only two choices: win or lose, and they each have a an equivalent weight. To put it differently, there is a 50% likelihood either will occur. That is not to mention, that trading can't be created to be better than a coin flip. You are able to do all the ideal research, utilize the ideal indiors, know price action just like you know the back of your hands, and generate a system or method that is 70% winners to 30 percent losers. But any individual trade still only has...

there's no logic in this. The possibility of two opposing results doesn't make both equally likely. When it did, every plane that took off could have a 50% probability of crashing instead of landing.

However, maybe your trades have only a 50% probability of a profitable outcome. You know, there's plenty of traders here and on other forums who could assist you with this.

Thanks for for your remarks. I#8217;m in the analysis stage. I#8217;m trading with real money, but very tiny amounts. I would like a positive expected value of my trades. By way of example, if I want to make 30 pips, I might want to check out the 15 minute chart. RR 1:1. People today say that in case it#8217;s sloping down, don#8217;t buy. Does that imply selling will profit me than 50.1% of the time? Do you see my point?

quote I would not bother attempting to well-define anything. Just work on your own egy and determine what works best for you. For you, it maybe counter-trend, for others it could be trend-following. For me, a tendency is determined on a daily basis by looking at the daily candle or even current daily candle patterns. There'll be no standard definition of exactly what a trend is in such a way that most everybody will take so why fuss with definitions. Simply concentrate on figuring out how to not eliminate money. Then , concentrate on figuring out the way...

quote Then I would suggest it is subjective to each person's standpoint and by definition can't possibly have an edge.... In case the o.p's opening statement is correct as most appear to consider it to be true then I believe we have to change the subject to attempt to specify what the tendency really is because unfortunately the numbers imply that either there is absolutely no benefit in trading the tendency or not one of us know exactly what the fad is.

I would not bother attempting to well-define anything. Just work on your own egy and determine what works best for you personally. For you, it possibly counter-trend, for many others it could be trend-following. For me personally, a tendency is determined by a daily basis by taking a look at the daily candle or recent daily candle patterns. There'll be no standard definition of exactly what a fad is in this manner that most everyone will take so why bother with definitions. Simply concentrate on figuring out how to not drop money. Then then, concentrate on figuring out how to produce just a small bit of cash. Then rinse and repeat and most importantly, don't get greedy

quote Then I would suggest it's subjective to each person's perspective and by definition can not possibly have an advantage.... If the o.p's opening statement is right as many appear to believe it to be accurate then I think we must change the subject to attempt to define what the tendency actually is since unfortunately the numbers imply that either there is no advantage in trading the tendency or none of us know what the fad is.

This is precisely my point!!

quote The trend is relative to your egy so if according to your egy it is a trend, do not go contrary to it.

Then I'd suggest it is subjective to each individual's standpoint and by definition can not possibly have an edge....

When the o.p's opening statement is correct as most seem to believe it to be accurate then I believe we have to change the subject to try and specify what the trend actually is since unfortunately the figures suggest that there is no benefit in trading the trend or not one of us know what the trend is.

quote The likelihood of a losing commerce isn't 50/50 only because there are 2 possible outcomes. Trends in the financial markets do not form and persist due to a human weakness in calculating likelihood of successive results from similar events.

The simple truth is the market can do 1 of 3 things. Your option will result in a 33% chance of winning. Probabilities are always predied on tangible things and looking at the definition of fashion does not contain anything forex can give us.

Does this mean that the odds is that I will eliminate money going against the trend? If that's true is that my expected value is positive when I proceed with the fad whatever trade I make? Do you get my point? If my anticipated value is negative should I move against the trend, it is positive when I go with this! If you go with the trend, OR it doesn't matter. There are no tendencies. All trades are 50/50 chance of profit!

I don't agree with this, some of my best trades have been counter trend plays.

Interesting Post!! Thank you!!

Quote=HiddenGap;10674514]quote This was discussed, sometimes heatedly, at Big Mike's forum. Check it out in the event that you desire. The reality is there are only two options: lose or win, and they all have a an equal weight. In other words, there's a 50% likelihood either will happen. That is not to say, that trading can't be created to be better than a coin flip. You are able to do all of the right research, use the right indiors, know price action just like you know the back of your hand, and create a system or method that's 70% winners to 30% losers. However, any person commerce still only has a 50% probability of winning and a 50% probability of losing(again, for the sake of simplicity and simpletons like me, I'm leaving out break even transactions or transactions where the only loss is commission costs). It is likely to maintain the zone. Where every transaction you make contributes to profit. So while you might get a larger winning edge right now, the absolute likelihood of the outside come on the following trade stays: Grow 50% Lose 50%. So far as trends go, this doesn't have anything to do with the creation of tendencies; rather the manipulation of those. Which is why great traders enjoy the late Tom Willi stated, commerce such as the trend won't ever end. However, in doing, you still have not changed the underlying reality that the transaction is either a winner or a loser. [/quote]