thread: This weeks GBP/JPY Analysis and Predictions

The long on the retrace clearly didn't do the job well and the market came back to give me a smack on the face. I did reverse net short but I was a few hundred pips down by that time (on multiples). My bias remains short and I will add to shorts onto a retrace. Goal is 221.

My bias is brief (longer duration) but I am anticipating a retracement today (maybe not a reversal) so I am long for this. This is some support I visit.

1. We have just completed a bullish bat with all the fib levels lining up nicely.
2. The consolisation in Sept produced a triangle and we're at the apex.
3. Price has pierced a few powerful trendlines but a break is not conclusive as yet.
4. We have reached medium to support levels over pairs.

So Sunday could see a little more down but I will expect a bounce somewhere within that bottom gray shaded area that starts at the apex of the triangle. Since these points reside on the daily, we should observe a affordable bounce and some consolidation around this area before continuing to collapse. The one thing that will break it readily is panic selling so I am prepared to take a slap on the face and reverse should that be the case.

I anticipate the retracement to strike on the 235 region or just below. First target and stops place to BE 1 at 232.8. Chart attached.

weekly analysis posted:

https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...sentinels.html

there's a historical SR lineup sitting in 241.06 so I will be constructing shorts at the 240s. I already have some entries in the 239.90 area. Target could be another 1000 pips down.

See chart (though there is nothing really important there besides the purple line sitting in 241.06 (top of the chart). The gray shaded area is also a buildup of resistance. There's a Gann timepoint on 1st/2nd Nov to ensure that may see a change.

Z

PS. A break above 241.06 could have my entrances reversed for a huge move north. At the moment we are within the brickwall so that I'll remain brief.

Would be interesting to check the connection between that and Autism - which is roughly 1 in 166. Approximately 50 years ago it had been closer to 1 in 400k.

Autism was a lot harder to detect 50 decades back so the 1 in 400K is not an accurate count based on my Sister that is a Physician. In fact, A lot of diagnosis were inaccurate 50 decades back.

Wow... sorry... there's something wrong with that MT4 chart... alpari... you're right... it is a doji !!!!!!!! Sorry !!

How do you get a doji on monthly ???

Well, I think that the upward surge is basically done. We have only a couple more days left in this month and, as you may see, thus far this month has worked itself into a doji, which is usually a consolidation/reversal sign. All of the indiors within this chart are bearish, including MACD which has only evidenced a cross of its signal line. Check out last week's Monthly chart, Post #88, and you will see MACD bearish divergence as well. Monthly 5SMA has been touched and it is time to return.

M2B

The 4H chart just shows more of this instant consolidation we have been seeing going back a few weeks now. As I said in the Daily Chart post, we could find out more ranging for another few times, maybe before the end of the month, after which I feel that the bigger movement down will begin. There's bearish divergence revealing on each chart from the Monthly on down. I have highlighted a few of those instances in the above posts. The 4H is a bit sketchy right now, which tells me we could view more ranging in the immediate future. I'd search for price to maybe go until this 200EMA, approximately 235.50, before bouncing back down. I don't think it's heading up to the 240 range I had forseen even as recently as a week. I could even venture as far out as to say that it won't strike 236 again for quite a while. The market has not moved as fast as I believed it would in a few of my previous posts. Price was running, sometimes, per week behind what I had been visiting in the charts. But I will say this, with the news coming out this week, culminating in NFP, it would not surprise me to find the latest low of 230.30 broken at the end of the week. Have a fantastic week.

M2B

Last week was quite flat, by a Daily perspective, as is evidenced by the flatness of this QQE and Momentum the majority of the past week. As I said on the Weekly Chart post, MACD has been neutralizing. It's more clear here on the Daily Chart. By looking at the Daily Chart alone, it would not surprise me if we watched another two or three days of that range, consolidating, neutralizing, until the big move down. More proof of this consolidating that has been occuring is the fact that the 50EMA (aqua line) along with the 200EMA (orange line) are along with each other for a week. This is merely the breather before another move down.

M2B

It is appears that the Weekly Chart is also done moving up in this time. We had a digital signature of this Weekly 5SMA last week. Price bounced involving the 5SMA and the TFT. There is bearish divergence on MACD to price. Stochastics has crossed out of overbought territory. I believe we are getting prepared for a second 'leg' down. Leg 1 was from point 1 to point 2. We then saw consolidation for about two months. Notice how the MACD histogram has moved back up close to the '0' lineup as price has maintained that a 'range' (remember we're referring to the weekly chart here). This situation is exactly what Peter Bain refers to as 'MACD neutralization', and it happens involving leg 1 and leg two of moves either up or down. My guess is that if the new Weekly candle opens on this chart in about 3 months, Momentum will have turned bearish.

M2B