thread: This weeks GBP/JPY Analysis and Predictions

there's a historical SR line sitting at 241.06 so I'll be building shorts in the 240s. I have some entries in the 239.90 area. Target could be just another 1000 pips down.

See chart (though there's nothing quite important there apart from the purple line sitting at 241.06 (top of the chart). The gray shaded area can also be a buildup of resistance. There is a Gann timepoint on 1st/2nd Nov so that may see a reversal.

Referring back into the article above

https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...orrection.html

Target has essentially been hit in the 221/220 area as called from 241 another 1000 pip call in the bag. I'm anticipating a reversal in 221.83 (88.6 percent over the daily high to low - already struck) into 220.52 (purple line). As usual, I'll scale to longs. Target is all about 2500 pips up into the 244/245 area. I don't mind holding onto these as the positive attention is nice.

Also, should the 220.52 area break I will consider Placing my rankings short for a very long journey south. But as normal, whilst within the service area, I'll stay long. It could take a while to exhaust all of the bears.

I posted this to the primary discussion thread, but it will be 30 pages back in an hour, so I thought I'd post over here too.

I have been considering this egy that bush and the feds are dreaming up. Clearly they are carefully rolling it out attempt to maximize the short-term effect on stock and currency markets. My guess is that it is going to work and we will see a major rally tomorrow. But lets consider what they could actually do.

As best I could tell, they are looking at the following items.

Utilize FHA to allow distressed homeowners to refinance mortgages that they could get out of. This might help the people who have high interest ARMs that they can't get out of because of credit issues, and who are living in homes that they may cover at a reduce interest rates. Regrettably, that's a very small portion of those people in trouble. Most of the people in trouble owe considerably more than the current value of the house. They will not have the ability to get a loan to pay of their current loan. Then there is the next issue. Even if the authorities loans them more than the current value of their home, they could not pay even the principle back to the loan. They have only kept up their houses to today because prices have been increasing 10 percent a year and they've pulled cash out annually.

The next item is taxation forgiveness for short sales, and forclosures. That's a great idea, for Joe Citizen. At this time, even when he declares bankruptcy and turns over the keys into his house to the bank, he gets hit with a big tax bill for any loss that the bank gets on his loan. With tax relief, it turns into a lot, lot easier for people to just walk away in their house. That is bad for dwelling prices, bad for banks and bad for government revenues. Thus, this provision definitely will not happen.

The third item is speaking about developing new loan plans. The goal is obviously to attempt to keep home prices up. What they will be looking at are things like 50 year loans, and loans at which a portion of the principal is not repaid until the house is sold and at which the bank takes a part of the appreciation at the conclusion of the loan. These ideas only operate if home prices keep appreciating at rates well above the inflation rate. In other words, they can't work.

Sorry about the long rant, but it is clear to me that they can't correct this issue. Everything goes back to my own arguement that our market only works so long as the source of money increases exponentially. In the case of home, our current system only works if home prices always grow faster than the rate of inflation. We have only had one year at which home prices havent increased, and you'll be able to see that our home lending/banking system is currently falling apart. One more year, and it will have basically collapsed.
https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...ps-2008-a.html

1 Attachment(s) thanks to the invitation aus

might like to add to karmo's chart. Here's another one with a fibo attracted from 244.07 towards the underside 219.32.

Take a peek at how many attempts there was to close over the 61.8 line...

I figure a near over that line would mean up up up... way up...


https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...nectivity.html

Here's the daily chart with the fibs, the first try to split the 50% amount failed, we have a bullish engulfing candle, we're heading for another try and if it effectively breaks, we'll see 238.80 that's my 2nd TP.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/1627/gjlk5.gif

1 Attachment(s) Hi Aus.

I saw my ID on the list on the first article. I am not sure if I have to be there as I noticed no one or very few were actually interested in EW Counts with this Pair.

Anyhow, I'm posting a chart here and if you feel that I need to remove it.... Just let me know by here or PM. And this wuld still be nice with me.

That is specially because I know in the major thread your position is for a Long Trade. This Chart I am posting is more of this Short Trade.

EG
https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...en-trades.html

Update for August 29.

I began to compose some big long discussion about how this situation is special, but I don't have a week to spend on it. Basically, we have been running a 35 year experiment from fiat currencies and exchange policies aimed at decreasing labour, capital and raw material costs. This experiment, at least in the developed nations, has benefited the rich, the banks, along with also the major corporations.

The system demanded exponential development of both currency and energy in order to sustain itself. We have surfaced in oil production (40% of global energy usage), and the exponential growth of currency has peaked and now need to wreck. The best case result from this crash is going to be a melancholy, currency collapse of all major currencies, along with a drastic decrease in global trade. A worst case result will war, civilization collapse, the death of 90% of the worlds population, and a return to a center ages standard of living for most of the remaining 10%

As far as what will happen the rest of the week, stock markets will be down and we are likely to see increasing signs of panic. The steady drop in the US markets from opening to closing, with no retrace attempts, showed to me a significant pullback in the equity markets has begun. This money won't return into the market quickly.

29th Wednesday

good avo to Each of

we've Got a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily--down the Ride should carry but im Anticipating a retracement--Ideally into the 2hr 5sma region or at 50ema or 100sma on 15min chart--so can load on shorts
nxt supoort Reaches 226.78-- 23.6% daily fib retracement

Expect ya'all made some serious dough yesterday-- good to have everyones contribution....one day-- we all have a party in Las Vegas

Wednesday 29/August

1hr , 30 min QQE in oversold level. . Both indiors need to cross up (off the oversold level) and cross back down to get another big bearish move.
If the 1 hr cross up we will observe the price retracement around daily 5 SMA(231.40 place) to find more vendors before it is shooting down again. . In the event the 4hr QQE cross up during the retracemnt , then it is a short term fad change

JPY FIRMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TOKYO MORNING AS JAPANESE EXPORTERS START BUYING THE CURRENCY - WIRE CITING TRADERS


FED RATE OUTLOOK: TRADERS KEEPING AN EYE ON BERNANKE'S SPEECH ABOUT HOME FINANCING ON FRIDAY, TO Search FOR HINTS ON WHETHER FED WILL HAVE A RATE CUT ON SEP 18

USD TRADING FOR THE REST OF 2007: OVERALL THE DOLLAR HAS RISING CYCLES THROUGH TO THE END OF THIS YEAR AGAINST BOTH THE YEN AND THE EUROPEAN CURRENCIES - IAN COPSEY AT GFT


DOWNSIDE TARGET: CHARTISTS SAYING THAT IF USD/JPY DIPPED BELOW 115.57 THAT IT WILL INDICATE THE USD/JPY REBOUND HAS POSSIBLY BEEN COMPLETED - WIRES


UK) LONDON'S BANKING SYSTEM HAS A Developing BACKLOG OF SHORT-TERM LOANS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT $25B - SUNDAY TELEGRAPH

1 Attachment(s) Yup, intriguing idea for a thread, thx for the invite, Auslanco.
I'll pass on my thoughts when I can.

4hr station: shirt 236.85, mid 233.58 (underside of this station is least of my concerns at the moment, we've got the 38.2 fib b4 we get there).
Also based on a few systems (Straightforward Daily System, Mouteki) here oncliqforexlining up @ mkt close on friday. Plus 5SMA is behaving as a superb support advice taking a look at the last 13 1hr candles on Auslanco's system. A very long play is definitely worth a shot.

Good luck and ability to all (but of course, fortune mostly have nothing to do with it .
https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...c-systems.html