Hi,

I've very much appreciated your articles for quite a while.

In my experience, it is not really worth trying to get returns from top swap rates. Currency moves can wipe out any benefit in the blink of an eye. I've watched as AUD/JPY dropped over 600 pips in a matter of a couple hours when fear selling began in mid March 2008.

With interest rates as they were subsequently, a 1 lot position (100k) was making about $18 per day. The 600 pip move on this size position would have dropped around $6000 - that's almost a year of making swap at $18 per day wiped out in just a couple hours.

My guie... adhere to the price movements for profit! Just ignore swap. Trade short term, because long term trends are too uncertain at the moment. The long term picture painted by fundamentals can turn on a dime, belief and emotions rule the price action. Look at AUDUSD... long term uptrend from 2001 to 2008 was snapped by 60 percent in just a couple of months. Confidence about the commodity boom returned for two years but confidence was shaken again. Price action in May and June looks spookily like the large red candles in August/September of 2008. Does any of this price action bear any relation to reality? Who knows! It changes from minute to minute.

My egy is capturing 20-30 pips in positions that are available for (hopefully!) A couple of hours at the most. My stop loss is 20 pips. If price action is strong I occasionally ch around 100 pips. I only trade a few times every day following the London available when price action is best. Up to now so good, however, it has been a trip of 6 steps forward and 5 steps back.

I wish you great fortune, you've been trying for long !