Coulda, shoulda, woulda..... a losing game. - Page 3
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Thread: Coulda, shoulda, woulda..... a losing game.

  1. #21
    Okay after the initial devastation, and the outpouring etc . What I'm now noticing is that my mind is dring back into the market.
    I'm logging into platforms, checking out prices, looking at installments, surfing the forum, watching all of the fantastic trades people have had within the past couple of days, and I want in.

    BTW the commerce that murdered my account was a hedge I had about the Hang Seng index...
    The previous day I had picked up 40 pips in 3 minutes when I closed the buy with profit and also allow the sell fall back 40pips prior to reentering with a different buy at the perfect time since the market then rallied over 200 points. Then the following day, after that massive rally, I knew the market would correct/consolidate, but maybe not before spiking with the preceding days left over momentum in the start.
    It then started to fall back, so I thought great, jump out of the buy and ride the corrective tide.
    Sorry buddy. About 100 pips, a margin call and 4hrs too premature.
    I sat there stunned and thought bugger it, with $9.00 left in the accountI won't get filled in the current price for a buy and the spread is 7 pips at $1 per pip.
    ....Bye, bye, dickhead....
    The market has now fallen back of course.
    So much for money managment.
    Greed really.
    The only reason I was on the Hang Seng (a very dangerous situation to trade anyhow, since it can whispsaw 100-300pips, even more, on the start, so you truly have to scam it to leave a commerce on later close) was that I thought I would get smart and try mouteki out onto it without demoing it initially. And there was not much currency action happening since it was Asia session.
    I just missed a 120pip move on the Nikkei 225 in 10mins since I didn't accept the marginally higher price and had to go to work and was not willing to risk not seeing it.
    This move was called by mouteki's plan, but I was being cautious. By the time I must work the Nikkei 225 had done the 120pips and was not stopping. So Mr Genius Trader waits for the Hang Seng to start believing he could get in with this one like the Nikkei, but I purchased on peak of a 250pip drop and then hedged in the low of the day only to get it rally back 100pips in the afternoon.
    Is the egg showing or what? I knew I had done the stupidest thing any trader can perform. Buy a shirt and sell a bottom.
    But I thought things it. I do not pay any premiums or interest on these contracts, I will hold them for many years if I wanted to, both are going to fluctuate back and forth, I could just continue closing one, allow the market move in the direction I want, then open an additional contract with a profit each day.
    Amazing system in theory, but guess who is the most impatient, undisciplined trader in the universe? And jumps in and outside too early whilst risking far too much margin.

    So now is probably an even more critical time plogically for me than when I was in the depths of despair.
    I am feeling helpless again.
    I will only send via a $100 to exchange again.
    Together with the fifty that is in there and this hundred. That is only risk per transaction. I will trade tight until the balance gets better. I have done it before with higher risk.
    There are so many very good setups appearing on my charts and they're being confirmed with this forum.
    I understand why I failed last time, just did something stupid... that is all.
    I will just exchange a low volitile currency like the EUR/USD until I will get back in the gravy with GBPs and the indexes, when my account balance picks up....

    Anyone see a problem here?

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    diallist wrote:


    I've seen this kind of thinking on several different trading message boards. It is popular with new traders because it gives them hope that profitability is easy to reach and just round the corner. I hate to throw cold water on the optimistic newbies here but investing is a really competitive company. I've also seen the many threads which say something like, I've been searching for a good system for the previous 3 years and haven't found anything that works. Please Help!

    How do you reconcile these two disparate views?

    My very own editorial on the issue is that there might be many very good systems available at no cost out there, however great in this context does not equivalent profitable. The majority of the so-called good systems require that extra special something else to turn it profitable. If you join HoppingLizard v1.7 with something else you come up with a profitable system. However, this begs the question, if HoppingLizard is in reality such a good system, then why should it be combined with anything? Simply program its rules into an EA, and you will have your answer about how great a particular system is. It should stand by itself and create a positive expectancy on its own if it is great in my book. Systems which have a negative expectation are crap in my novel - which applies to the majority of those systems posted with this and other trading sites.

    The other thing that is often indied is plogy. If I had more discipline then I would be profitable. Or when I had less fear or greed, I would be profitable. There are a number of plogical gurus that have popped up in the trading world who spoon feed traders exactly what they want to hear. Allow me to give you a easy fix for the vast majority of your trading emotional problems. It is a profitable trading system. The key phrase is mechanical. If you can set up your system to auto trade for you then it is even better. If you plan your own system and are comfortable with the way it trades and performs, many of those perceived discipline/plogy issues evaporate, and you're be able to focus your attention on what is really lacking with regards to system functionality. You still require area to sit on your hands and allow your system to exchange the market even if it does stupid things you would never do if you're trading the account manually.
    Please more of the thinking, rather than'system of this month'.
    Once again pipscooper, this is something that I have read previously, taken on board and then lost due to the effort necessary to invent and back and program test a mechanical trading system.
    I am looking for easy answers.
    I want another person to do all of the work and I sit and load their system into my appliions and allow the pips roll up in.
    That is just plain laziness predied on ignorance. The reality is that I should eliminate the trading screen and the forums and also the next super- indior and spend the time studying how to generate and test a mechanical trading system.

  3. #23
    There is an issue.

    Listen. . .given that which we examine 24 hours or so ago the problem is your hopping back in to quickly. Moreover, from the description of your need to perform more and more volatile pairs searching for a big score, your rapid emotional turn around in despair to desire, along with your entrance of obsession with watching each pip move on the charts, a thought occurs to me: gaming dependency.

    Now that I've got your attention, consider just a tiny self consistency. Your problem trading, by your own admission, is that your undisciplined and impulsive. Nevertheless your about to yield to your instincts an additional time and jump back in. I don't doubt your bright. . .but how far have you learned in 1 day?

    I think you should demo somewhat. Yes, there are pretty setups to play. . .don't worry, there'll be more pretty setups later on. You will ch them. However, and realize this is coming from the most click happy undisciplined trader with this board, you need to get directly in the mind, learn a little patience, reflect on who you are and everything you want as a trader, and implement it without risking anymore of your capital.

    ....there are a range of individuals on this board that just herniated and fell over because I am the one that just wrote that.

  4. #24
    Of course you will need to learn and practice even in the event that you have talent. Tiger Woods has the natural talent but I am sure he functions powerful hard too. However , if you have't got the talent, it ain't goona happen. It's possible to spend 10-15 years doing it and get the hang of it, but I am referring to doing it quickly enough to have the ability to make a living from it. I heard an old pianist the other day saying,'You can only grow when there is nothing to find out'. I believe trading is similar to that: you can bring out what's there already but you can't aquire trading talent.
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. If traders are naturally born, this will mean that they dont want google, novels, cliqforex, or anything for that matter.
    Its simply not true, people need instruction in ANY line of work - but more so from the markets.
    A lot of traders will tell you the exact same thing. For instance, , a trader with this forum. He scoffs when folks say things like you're doing. If he did not receive support from fellow traders (and other sources), he would not be where he is today, he publicly admits that.
    Dont quit ffwuc, take advice from the others and exchange on a micro account with 1% of your balance per transaction.
    I want you all the best.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I agree with dial

    EVERY system outside there will be profitable if given enough time, provided you are a patient and clever trader.
    I think EVERY might be a slight overstatement, but there are multiple ways to exploit markets that will get the job done. I don't really think there is a system that can make money in every kind of market. Also, that reddish light/green light on TV is simply ridiculous.
    Oh yeah, if you aren't sure what your edge is.... You don't have one.
    I change my mind and break rules .... why? Because I suck trading.... But I'm getting better....
    Demo trading simply does not help me profit discipline at all.... It is fake cash, it doesn't matter and real trading is an entirely different creature.
    Joyful trading
    ps-i have absolutely no clue what the market will do and neither do you. After I really accept that, I'll suck , much less at trading.

  6. #26
    IVE BEEN TRADING SINCE OCT 05, MUST SAY THAT WITH ALL THE SYSTEMS It's Very IMPORTANT TO TRY AND STICK TO ONE METHOD AND WHAT I LEARNED THE MOST IS TO PLACE YOUR STOP LIMITS. BUT THEN I SAY THAT AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENS, YESTERDAY I FELT THAT GBP/USD HAD REACHED ITS HIGH SO I DECIDED TO GO SHORT AT 1.9013, WAS DOING GREAT DURING THE DAY WITH THE PAIR, HAD MADE ABOUT 80 PIPS, BUT THEN I WENT AGAINST MY PLAN AND STARTED DOING $10.00 PER PIP DEALS, WHEN I USUALLY ONLY DO $2.00 PER PIP DEALS, WELL BY 3:00AM I WAS DOWN $700.00, I ALSO HAD 2 OTHER GBP DEALS GOING ON WHICH MADE ME HAVE $14.00 PER PIP DEALS GOING ON. HOW STUPID, I HAD AN EQUITY OF ABOUT 2400.00, BY 3:00AM I WAS AT 1700 AND FEELING PRETTY BAD, I DECIDED TO RIDE IT OUT, IF IT GOES THROUGH THE ROUGH I WILL GET A MARGIN CALL AND BE DEVASTATED, WELL, FORTUNATLEY IT CAME BACK AND I ENDED UP PROFITING WITH THE POUND AND DID WELL WITH THE LOONIE, HOWEVER I GOT AWAY FROM BY PLAN AND ON Only One STUPID CALL I ALMOST LOST ALL MY PROFITS, I HAD STARTED WITH 200.00 BACK IN OCTOBER OF This past Year. DONT GIVE UP BUT USE YOUR SYSTEM AND ALWAYS PLACE A STOP LOSS.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    IVE BEEN TRADING SINCE OCT 05, MUST SAY THAT WITH ALL THE SYSTEMS It's Very IMPORTANT TO TRY AND STICK TO ONE METHOD AND WHAT I LEARNED THE MOST IS TO PLACE YOUR STOP LIMITS. BUT THEN I SAY THAT AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENS, YESTERDAY I FELT THAT GBP/USD HAD REACHED ITS HIGH SO I DECIDED TO GO SHORT AT 1.9013, WAS DOING GREAT DURING THE DAY WITH THE PAIR, HAD MADE ABOUT 80 PIPS, BUT THEN I WENT AGAINST MY PLAN AND STARTED DOING $10.00 PER PIP DEALS, WHEN I USUALLY ONLY DO $2.00 PER PIP DEALS, WELL BY 3:00AM I WAS DOWN $700.00, I ALSO HAD two OTHER GBP DEALS GOING ON WHICH MADE ME HAVE $14.00 PER PIP DEALS GOING ON. HOW STUPID, I HAD AN EQUITY OF ABOUT 2400.00, BY 3:00AM I WAS AT 1700 AND FEELING PRETTY BAD, I DECIDED TO RIDE IT OUT, IF IT GOES THROUGH THE ROUGH I WILL Find A MARGIN CALL AND BE DEVASTATED, WELL, FORTUNATLEY IT CAME BACK AND I ENDED UP PROFITING WITH THE POUND AND DID WELL WITH THE LOONIE, HOWEVER I GOT AWAY FROM BY PLAN AND ON JUST ONE STUPID CALL I ALMOST LOST ALL MY PROFITS, I HAD STARTED WITH 200.00 BACK IN OCTOBER OF This past Year. DONT GIVE UP BUT USE YOUR SYSTEM AND ALWAYS PLACE A STOP LOSS.
    Thank you for the post Dave, very true.
    As I said in my opening rant (which although very emotional does contain some truths evidently)
    The smallest of mistakes gets improved greatly. Even in the event that you make the right call on a transaction, your implementation needs to be infinitely precise.
    I also was considering the GBP/USD chart yesterday (Friday) and believing, mmmm its right out near the nth fib level on all the charts, its starting to curve over, despite all of the lousy dollar news that week maybe its good short setup.
    But experience advised me to wait. Why?
    1. Its near the end of the week and anything could occur Friday afternoon or over the weekend.
    2. The systems that I have attached to my charts were getting CLOSE into a market signal, but weren't GIVING the market signal.
    3. I'm not actually supposed to be considering trading right now.

    What will probably happen (and I have seen this umpteen times on the charts before and I fell victim to it a couple days ago because of impatience), is that....
    The price will look like its going to flip (or start its movement )...
    everyone gets sucked in...
    goes short... (or extended for the reverse scenario)
    and the price bounces off among the MA's (or some other level or whatever) and retraces.
    People get scared and jump ship with a reduction, only to see the REAL price move occur a few bars later.
    How could I have been so dumb as to miss it. . I was in.... If I'd of only waited yet another 30mins,2 bars, whatever... I will not make that error again....Should I jump back in today.... How long will the transfer last.... Is it too late.... Damn!!!! ....
    Coulda, shoulda, woulda....
    James16 talks about this in his own thread. It seems that prices always like to retrace until they REALLY move.
    Is this a way to draw out the suckers? .... Maybe... is that just the natural behavior of price.... maybe.

    PS Don't take this the wrong way. . But typing your entire message in CAPITAL LETTERS is the computer equivalent of SHOUTING. Its ok, I can still hear you if you type normally.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    People get frightened and jump boat with a loss, only to find the true price movement happen several bars later.
    How can I have been so stupid as to miss that one. . I was already in.... If I had of only waited another 30mins,2 bars, anything... I will not make that error again....Should I jump back in today.... Just how long will the move last.... Is it too late.... Damn!!!! ....
    Coulda, shoulda, woulda....
    James16 talks about this in his own thread. It appears that prices always prefer to retrace until they REALLY move.
    Is this a way to draw out the suckers? .... Maybe... is that just the natural behaviour of price.... maybe.
    Here is a concept I have gotten my mind around lately that may shed some light on which you have noticed. Consider this. For every egy that a specific trader uses, it's possible for the market to move in such a way that stated trader's egy is foiled. We traders have the duty to think through the scenarious of market movement and understand which kind of movement the market must do to conquer our method. Then we should devise ways to counter the effects so that we do not dismiss and do minimize the losses we take at the time.

    For every egy there is a counter-egy. It's just like a coin, for every heads there is a tails if you simply flip it on. The market is made up of the whole world of egies (traders). At any given time, some of those egies will be in the process of being foiled and some are going to be highly profitable. What's the market's egy? The market's egy would be to systematically run through all the counter-egies to foil everybody's egy. Some traders think the market is out to get them. The simple fact is that the market is out to get everybody. That's just the nature of the monster. The other side of the coin is that at any particular time, some egy will be working exceptionally well.

    In my opinion, the principal thing that trips up traders would be trading systems or methods that work well sometimes, but over the long run are losers. Usually traders do not take the opportunity to thoroughally test their systems and also to think through them to see if they are solid and based on market principles which aren't going to change. People who trade systems which aren't profitable over the long run have a tendency to jump from system to system, since their system is not working very well and since they do not have confidence in it. The actual truth about the vast majority of systems is that they lose cash, but not enough to become a profitable fade. In other words, they lose out due to trading costs (bid/ask spread in forex) since their system doesn't have any edge, or advantage. Linda Raschke says in Market Wizards that positioning is about 70% of the game. The most crucial part comes down to the actual direction. In other words, the majority of the trading game is all about getting a good price, rather than about correctly predicting the direction of the next move. Spend some time thinking on this notion and see what you could produce.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    System hopping. A different system every week. The principle seems to be If you get three losing trades in a row, then your system is no good. Time to go find another one. This is indeed sad because so many traders don't recognize two items.

    First, and I have said this many times on this forum, is that individual trades are unworthy. Just a lengthy set of trades has significance. It makes no difference whether a single transaction is a winner or a loser. When I put a trade, I do not care whether it is a winner or a loser. I do not care since every transaction is a winner for me. If I win a commerce, I earn money. If I lose a transaction, I understand from it. Either way I win, since I gain either money or expertise.

    Secondly, traders don't remain with a single system long enough to let its unique statistical advantage to manifest itself, nor do they remain with a single system long enough to know it inside out, forward and backwards.

    A Process Isn't the Holy Grail.
    A trader Isn't the Holy Grail.
    Money management Isn't the Holy Grail.
    A system along with a trader and money management together are required to create a Holy Grail.

    There is not one Holy Grail. There are an unlimited number of them. As many as there are combinations of system-moneymanagement-trader.

    There are lots of good systems available for free. Pick one.
    There are lots of great money management methods for free. Pick one.
    There are lots of bad traders. Fix one, rather yourself.

    IMHO, the reason many traders fail is because they do not accurately identify where the true problem is and take action to repair the real problem. From the paragraph above it should be clear that the problem is not with this machine, but that's what everybody focuses on. If one system does not operate, they try another, and then yet another, and yet another. Well of course changing systems is not likely to repair the problem!

    My car does not run. It must be the tires. Lets try some goodyear tires. Nope, still does not run. Lets try some firestone tires. Nope, still doesn' run. A dozen tire manufacturers afterwards, the car owner has lost all his money switching tires and provides up on being able to drive. It never occured to the proprietor to control the battery.

    Tires are systems. The charge on the battery is that the traders mindset, emotions, persistence and consistence.

    You want step by step instruction on how best to construct your very own personal Holy Grail? Alright, here goes:

    Blend the following:

    ONE system.
    ONE currency.
    ONE micro lot per commerce (live, NOT demo)
    ONE trader (that would be you)

    Begin trading. After 20 trades, when you haven't made a profit. Then look at what is wrong with the trader and repair it. Leave the machine, currency and micro lot per transaction alone. THEY ARE NOT BROKEN, SO DON'T FIX THEM.

    After making alterations to the trader, finish another 20 trades. Repeat this cycle until the trader is fixed. When the trader is operating properly, then and ONLY THEN can you attempt another system or currency or position size.

    It's not the system. It's you. Quit focusing on the machine and do precisely what you've done here. Honest, painful self evaluation. And yes, go ahead an have a pity party and make statements which you know perfectly well are false concerning trading. Do all of this. Get it out of your system. Vent.

    Simply to provide a little bit of hope, I once took a $4,000 account down to $13 in under fourteen days. 200:1 true leverage is going to do that to you. Despair, depression, conquer and a deep sense of overall worthlessnesss? I was the poster child!

    Then I went ONE-ONE-ONE as above and with fantastic care and fifty tons of discipline, I climbed that $13 back around $500. By that time, I had regained my confidence. I had fixed myself by eliminating my problem of using high leverage.

    If I could fix myself, anyone can. I still find broken parts of my trader self, and and I recognize them, I fix them. I really don't muck with my machine and I do not muck with my money management. I fix the problem in which it lies. In my, the trader.

    Dial
    diallist

    nuff said.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Possibly first and last journal entry forex.

    This is a summary of my dismal performance trading forex markets. I am hoping that by posting this I will get over the markets and proceed.
    Also to publicly expose this dismal performance as a wake up call for me.
    Some self directed therapy if you may.
    And it may help newbies understand from a true case of what can happen if you lack discipline, patience and the ability to adhere to a egy or even have a egy. Even though you may have alot of devotion, which I don't lack.

    I started out demoing late last year for 3mths with excellent results (see below). This gave me the confidence to start a live account with a minimum amount of money (2000) as advised. Nevertheless, the market generated nothing but headaches for me. My original trading account has gone over the last 6 mths plus the couple hundred extra dollars I put on top to pay losses.
    The market has taken over my life. It is all I think about. I spend all my available time working on it, watching it and wanting to exchange it profitably.

    But if there wasn't enough capital or time or anything, I would always just miss the ship and things have gradually but definitely deteriorated.
    My first demo egy (the one that produced heaps of cash ) did not operate in the real market.
    So then I had been leaping from one egy to the next on a weekly basis, because the egies weren't producing the required outcomes.

    I knew this wasn't the right thing to do. I knew all of the mistakes I was making and I had been making them. . Before I left them.... Because I had spent so much time researching and learning about forex. But theory and practice are all separated from the chasm of experience.

    I must admit, though, that some of the most promising egies seem to be here on the factory. But by the time I had discovered this forum, I think that it might have been too late (story of my life) because my optimism and my account have been at a crucial level....

    21/09/2006

    I just got my third margin call in 6mths (the second in 2 days), mercifully its taken my account just below $50 so today I can not trade till I have learnt to exchange properly - whatever that means. Should I withdraw that money today, it will cost me 50 percent to get the cash out, not worthwhile.

    It only seemed to make sense that if you traded a demo account from 50,000 to 4 million in 30 days (sometimes less), for 3 mths running, you might have a small prospect of acheiving at a mildly profitable results in the real market.

    Certainly not the case. I have clearly not demo-ed for long . But what is the point of demoing in case the true market produces different outcomes. And 2000 percent a week return isn't good enough to begin!!!
    You can never know this unless you exchange the true market. But by then you are trapped with a crap egy or method that does not work, so you want to try a thousand other crap egies to compensate, but you will run out of cash before you discover the right one, because there is not one.

    Why on earth was retail forex brokering provided in the first loion. From what I've been studying, brokers don't bother hedging opposing places with their customers because they are aware that the client will lose, because the customers don't know how to trade properly. And no-one will let their customers know how to trade properly. Thankfully, as advised, I've just used a very tiny amount of my cash on this mad endeavour.

    Maybe I'll come back after 10 years of demoing and we might see then. Maybe I won't waste another moment of my life doing something that, if you fail, leaves you with absolutely nothing to show for your efforts. At least if I had been a failed artist, I would have some crappy art works to hang around the house.

    Perhaps I am not dumb enough to trade the markets. Perhaps its best if small guys stay out of the markets altogether.

    I will attain a far greater return on my capital by leaving it in a savings account than I could trading the markets. The market gives you a guaranteed minus (-)100% return on capital within the first 3 minutes versus a guaranteed 6 percent p/a from a bank. That means that after a few minutes you will be roughly 100% ahead of the market. Wow, no retail forex broker sales pitch mentions that reality.

    I've persisted with the market just to give it a possibility that perhaps things will improve, but they only got worse.

    I tested different egies, accessed more information (how much can you really need - is not the golden rule that'price = advice'.) Finally it was impatience to recover from losses.... Which were permitted to grow too big.... Because I would sit there like a stunned rabbit in the headlights, expecting for the transaction to turn.... And trading scared by taking off small (but possibly large) profits because the market was heading back the other hand, but just breifly, which has caused the most serious damage.

    I should not have bothered though, because the market won't provide you with a chance.
    The tiniest of mistakes gets penalised greatly. Even in the event that you make the right call on a transaction, your implementation has to be infinitely precise.
    There is really no point in starting a trade because there is a 100% probability it will immediately turn against you. This may always be true.

    Ffwuc's golden rule = You will always lose on the market, always.

    Even fortune Isn't a factor. Even in the event that you win, you have still lost, because you will get overconfident and lose tomorrow.

    Whatever I saw was the very obvious method for the market to go, it would go another way, then if I tried to apply reverse plogy into that egy (the most plausible decision )... it still went another way.

    There it is. No way that anyone can ever win on the market.

    I challenged you to prove me wrong.

    If anyone on this forum wants to exchange my live account for half or even more (negotiable) of their profits to show me wrong, you can contact me at. The results could be printed in this journal.

    Here I go again... a forex junky searching for another fix....

    Hang in there man!

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