thread: FOMC Interest Rate Statement

Unless the Fed does something really surprising the price nearly always moves in one direction then goes back in another direction. So provided that you keep your stops wide and do not do anything silly like buy at resistance and sell at support you are on to a winner.

The transfer will be UP for the Euro.

So you are straddling?

Hell no, I said DON'T buy at resistance and market at support. Fade the move is a good trade.

How can you know this? This is merely an imaginations of previous data, nobody know what will happen this time, maybe it's great move or maybe it's simply whipsaw. I wish this will be good spike...

From my experience trading the news, interest rate statements to me would be the most difficult to trade since the interest rate is already priced into the market. Now unless a number besides anticipated comes out, it's difficult to say which direction it goes. I'd love to abide by the trend with this one. .

Its not the amount this time, its the contents of this announcement, if its own hawkish the eur/usd will start heading down, if not then we will see new highs over the coming week.


My forecast would be for a hawkish statement, and certainly no signal for a cut in rates.

its not the amount this time, its the contents of the announcement, if its hawkish the the eur/usd will start heading down, if not then we'll see new highs over the coming week.


My prediction is for a hawkish statement, and certainly no sign for a cut in rates.

Has anybody here just jumped onto the candle once it forms or is that too dangerous? Do you have any suggestions about the best way best to trade the announcement?

You can get burnt jumping on candles :. Everything depends what candle you leap on. Just examine the historical charts and you'll see - it goes in one direction then comes back UNLESS that the Fed says something totally unexpected (highly unlikely). Just read the statement as long as it's not unexpected just fade the initial move. Buy at service or sell at resistance.

The principal thing the market is searching for today is a few signs of dovishness from the statement...

Lt;TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0gt;lt;TBODYgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD class=newsStoryHeader width=400 colSpan=2gt;12-12-06 16:34 CETlt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TDgt;http://wminvest.ldn.swissbank.com/im...eric/trans.giflt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD class=newsStoryHeadline colSpan=2gt;FOREX-Dollar slips as investors worry about the Fedlt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TDgt;http://wminvest.ldn.swissbank.com/im...eric/trans.giflt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;!--News Body begins here-lt;TRgt;lt;TD class=newsStory width=450 colSpan=2gt;(Updates with comments, details, refreshes prices, adds
byline)
From Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped to the day's
lows against the euro as traders became increasingly convinced
that the Federal Reserve will ditch its own warning to a pick-up in U.S.
inflation at its policy meeting later on Tuesday.
Data showing the U.S. trade deficit for October shrank to
its narrowest since August 2005 had given that the currency a brief
boost before in what had been fairly routine trading
before the Fed's last meeting of the year.
The central bank is expected to leave rates at 5.25
percentage, where they have been since June, and according to current
remarks from top officials including Chairman Ben Bernanke,
most investors had expected the Fed to reiterate its concern
about the upward risk to inflation.
However a combination of those euro breaking above $1.3250, a
fairly important short-term technical degree, and expanding
expectations that crucial support for the greenback will
disappear along with the Fed's inflation warning, unleashed a
tide of past-due dollar selling.
Investors just don't need to go too long dollars before
that the Fed meeting. And after we broke some vital levels here, at
$1.3250, declines accelerated, said Gregory Salvaggio, vice
president for trading at Tempus Consulting at Washington.
There's nothing 'fundamental' crossing the wires, no
comment, etc.. However, the currency market is beginning to
speculate the Fed may hint to a change on rates, possibly to a
more impartial stance, later now, he said.
The euro lt;EUR=gt; hit a session high of $1.3269 according to
EBS and was last quoted at $1.3251, up 0.1 percent on the afternoon,
according to Reuters data.
The European single currency got an extra boost from
comments from European Central Bank Governing Council Member
Vitor Constancio, who said the bank didn't have a target for
that the euro exchange rate.
He told Reuters at a stock market conference that sudden
moves at the euro rate were undesirable but the currency has been
only one variable in ECB decisions.
It's another statement that the ECB isn't uncomfortable
using the degree of the euro and it does nothing to promote
anyone to buy dollars, particularly against the euro, said
John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange trading at ING
Capital Markets LLC in New York.
Meanwhile, the dollar was down against the yen lt;JPY=gt; at
116.92 yen, off a session high at 117.19 yen, while the euro
was up modestly from the yen lt;EURJPY=gt; at 154.91 yen, using
hit another record high immediately on EBS at 155.05 yen.
Sterling lt;GBP=gt; continued to benefit from strong British
inflation data before and was up 0.5 percent at $1.9673, while
that the euro lt;EURGBP=gt; was down 0.4 percent from the pound at
67.35 pence.
The U.S. dollar managed to remain in positive territory
contrary to the Canadian dollar lt;CAD=gt; which earlier hit fresh
eight-month lows around C$1.1556 and was last quoted at
C$1.1542, up nearly 0.6 percent on the day.
lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;/TBODYgt;lt;/TABLEgt;