GS points Outside the 5 key factors Behind AUD collapse in months to come.
GS: AUD/USD in 0.83 in 3 months, 0.81 in 6 month, and 0.79 within 12 months.
The continuing fall in commodity prices. Iron ore is currently at USD68/tn, 50% lower than in the start of the calendar year, with a 12% fall since the beginning of November. Ongoing China expansion concerns as the authorities continue to facilitate policy in order to attain the 2014 expansion target, indiing that underlying growth momentum remains fragile. Dollar appreciation on a trade-weighted basis against the back drop of US economic outperformance and Fed rhetoric which points to rate hikes in mid-2015. Weak Australian statistics which has motivated the market to dismiss at one RBA cut within the next 12 months. And the rise in risk aversion. A lot of people may argue GS prediction isn't always on-point, but this is just a reference. GS and I would concur that moment.
Ideas:
0.8100 won't break easily given the reality there isn't much liquidation left for AUD and USD the subsequent two weeks, unless there is enormous profit taking kicks in during the Christmas and New Year (really low chance)
But two weeks are rather long time, anything could happen, and planet may end in a flash.
However, as for the drawback of USD economy, this morning showed,USD had equally disappointing amounts BOTH new home sales and existing home sales. Core Durable fantastic order has not improved for 5 months straight which would raise concerns for current and future expansion.
In addition RBA shows fruion by the continuing strength of the AUD http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ia-credit.htmlAUD is up 3.9 percent against the yen at 2014 Up 2.4% against the euro An iron-ore glut has halved prices of the Vital export AUDUSD downward pressure persists.
1 Attachment(s) AUDUSD https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...ding-edge.html
12/17/14 Latest Remark from USD Fed SaidThat rate hike could come as soon as along with a set of rate hikes will follow 12/7/14 Week AUD Steven statedAUDUSD ought to be stay well under 0.800, 0.7000. 12/16/14 The newest AUD minutes too consistent with Steve and statedAUD rate is currently above its fundamental value, and a low AUD rate is good for the market. If the fundamental reasons above don't change , it is quite possible to see AUDUSD has space to have thighs down below 0.800 while the bear tendency is well preserved on 4h and daily chart.