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Totally agreed. .
Erdogan declares three month state of Crisis
all long usd
Hi Scotty - thanks for your upgrade. I am actually resesrching trading that this beastie intra day because its nice ranges - largely although Europe is open - provide adequate pips - something that is currently quite rare!
I have only banked some good ones off the 100 pip drop that started about half an hour following this morning's LO and that I will post the odd chart if so wanted...
Because this transaction is longer duration I probably won't post daily unless the sentiment varies. Tomorrow the CBRT will launch their quarterly inflation report. For the interest of the transaction we of course want to see little relief in the inflation rate. Whether this report demones that inflation has enhanced and surprises shareholders we might observe a strong pullback as the likelihood of near term interest rate cuts increases. If this will be the case, but I think we would have seen more hinting in the last interest rate assembly. Additionally, the Borsa Istanbul 100 index has seen a sharp rise since late march on large volume with hardly any retracement. This is far an additional indior of strenth for this particular trade. As foreign money flows into turkey we should see this continue to rise. I can post a screenshot of the Borsa, I see this on Bloomberg, here's the link for those who care track it http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XU100:IND/chart
Thus we are nearing the end of the trading week. Not bad all in all. As of now the trade appears to be legitimate. We did see a few discontinue volatility throughout the asian/london session which has been pinned. I've highlighted those stop areas in pink, and the new stop areas are green. There's not any telling whether or not those areas will be gunned but I'd bet on at least the nearest one getting taken out.
I was able to get in at 2.14 during the stop hunt, I payed a 6 pip spread. I didn't observe the market testing 2.15 again, but we actually never know. My egy would be to cautiously continue scaling to the market whilst leaving room for the market to pull back. The trade is at the hands of their funds. All I could hope is that my thinking about this pair is largely concurrent with theirs. They're people who really push the price around. The Lira ranges a lot, like most other currencies. If it moves it tends to occur quickly for about a week then goes back to range--almost like soldiers rushing a battle field then entrenching themselves. I'm just gonna keep the ole fingers crossed and hope we see 2.05 or better yet 2.0000 in another few months.
Have a Wonderful weekend everyone,
Hi,
Great thread with some fantastic comments.
I will agree with JeremyWS a exotic pair such as USDTRY has to be taken care of via Fundamentals. Techies falter on EM's.
Once more, a excellent thread which I will follow! Keep the good work up.
Yep - been a long time - great to see you posting again. Thanks, I have picked up on their CB website and have been looking for another input so that I will have a peek at that news site and will even carry on hunting...
Alright, just one quick thought. Often times after news just like we had now the market direction looks obvious. But we're in shakeout land. We might still see a spike turned pin pub.
Hi ,
I haven't spoken with you in a few years. Sure hope you are doing well. First off, I was wrong about the Central Bank's schedule for releasing interest rate info. Thus, to be clear, once the bank retains a MPC meeting to discuss rates, we'll understand the day of.
Http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/eng/
All press releases regarding the lira can be found on the CBRT site:
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/eng/
I generally only go to Google and search Turkish Lira, and filter for news. It'll pull up everything. I often read what the Hurriyet Daily News has to say about the Lira as they are a based in Turkey.
We're now a month off from a different interest rate assembly. Today its a patient yet cautious waiting match.
Hi ScottyB - I figure in the PA that a few news came from their MPC in 11am GMT leading to that 150 pip fall. Have you got any links to news for UsdTry? - it seems rather diffficult to find info
Regards
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