thread: Long Term Analyses - EURUSD, GOLD, and SandP

LONG TERM ANALYSES BY ENTERFX - EURUSD, GOLD and SP:

I provide no trading calls, just unbiased long and mid term technical
analyses based in my own view and opinions. In addition, I do so to find out more
and from that I could be held accountable for what's posted here oppose
to what the market actually does later on.

As you know, it is a tough business and I really don't know a single trader or analyst who
is right all of the time. We can only predict, which is quite fascinating with this small business.

I use several factors to analyze the markets, such as long term cycles. I'm a strong
believer in divergence, if combined with trendlines along with a clear elliot wave pattern.

I do not rely on EW alone, it must match up with several other variables such as time, trendlines,
along with other indiors. Fibonacci is also very helpful if combined with support and resistance levels.

What's sure is that I WILL be incorrect from time to time, but right now I'm
seeing some decent patterns that may pan out quite soon. Lets do some
estimated analyses and let the market tell us the patch soon enough :--RRB-.

Hope you enjoy.

- Oddvin

quote DAILY CHART - Clearly 5 waves up BUT added an alternate (green) 3rd wave count. In any event it should conclude the current upleg and lead to a bigger selloff. picture WEEKLY: picture

It's been some time since my last update here in FF.

SP 500 (ES) - WEEKLY UPDATE.

About August 31st I composed the folowing:

DAILY CHART - Clearly 5 waves up BUT added an alternate (green) 3rd wave count.
Either way it should conclude the current upleg and lead to a bigger selloff.

At precisely the exact same article I published this chart:


Since this post the price adopted my count almost to the point
and fell approximately 200 points (almost a 10% correction)


Once again, prices are at or around som large inflection points because it again is hammering the
upper channel lineup and each week upper bollinger band.
It's too early to say what will happen from here but once again this clearly looks as a 5th wave of bigger degree.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen from as prices might still climb but volatility is likely to pick up about these levels.
I will be on the view of a possible 5 wave decline in order to detect a possible trend shift and can post here so if so,

SP 500 (ES) Weekly chart as of November 21 2014:

SHORT TERM UPDATE - SP500:

This is what I see about the 1Hour chart: Possible Ending diagonal working its final legs towards the 2600 level. If this is true, it should should lead to a sharp selloff.

EURUSD Weekly - Shortly to set a good tendency:

EURUSD - WEEKLY UPDATE:

April 6 this year I published the following comment and chart:

EURUSD Weekly - Shortly to set a good fashion:
My prediction is that we are in the very late stage of this long lasting flag pattern
that started in July 2012. Unless it's already done into the upside and breaks down tough
from current levels, I think we can observe a last leg towards the 1.40 flat to conclude
a large ending diagonal.

THEN: Chart at April 6:



NOW: Chart at November 21 2014:


Depending on the counts with this weekly chart, we can shortly expect a powerful rally for the Euro.
A couple more downlegs will be interesting to see for a possible change possibly between 1.22 - 1.23 region. .

I anticipate a countertrend rally to last for several weeks before visiting the downside, but this really is all in the future...

quote SP ES Weekly update: 5th wave in advance. How I count the advance in the February 5 low is that a 5th wave along with the decline the recent weeks is a wave 4 of the 5 wave advance. If that is the case we can now begin to calculate the approximate goal that ought to be the reduced 2000's around 2060. It all depends on the shape of the potential 5th wave which can take form for a triangle, finishing diagonal or a plain 5 wave advance. If that is a wave 5, then a pullback must provide a low risk buying opportunity. The low must be in if that is really a 4th,...

SP ES Weekly update: 5th wave soon to finish?

gt;gt; GET READY FOR SOME VOLATILITY!

My previous SP analyses was pretty spot on because the anticipated bounce has reached new highs in an impressive and agressive rate.

But, how much can this leg go? Once again we see price rapping on the 2.5 year trendline since the anticipated 5th wave is at its very late period.

A pullback is at the cards and once this upleg shirts within days or possibly a few weeks , we should at least
have a interim top and a larger correction should begin.

Until we receive a strong followthrough to the upside which eliminates the very visible technical divergences revealed on
the 4 hour, daily and weekly charts, a good pullback and strong selloff is imminent over the next weeks and weeks.

If this plays out, the big question then remains unanswered; will this be a larger degree 4th wave using a larger 5th wave to come
later this year. Only time will tell as we'll attempt to analyse the waves as they unfold.

As allways, this remains to be seen. Nothing can be taken as granted since the future will reveal the thruth.


4 HOUR CHART - this 5th wave upleg is distributing out it's final subwaves to the upside.



DAILY CHART - Clearly 5 waves up BUT added another (green) 3rd wave count.
Either way it must conclude the current upleg and cause a larger selloff.




WEEKLY:

GOLD XAU/USD: Since my article in April I have maintained my view that Gold is in a bearish triangle, and that I still do. The gold bulls is back in full force, yet again.... As my chart indies the current rally must be the last leg (E) within this large triangle which should result in a sharp 5 wave downleg towards the 1100 - 1050 level. Ideally, the E-wave should top between 1350 - 1360. Keylevel in 1392 would invalidate the triangle. picture

XAU/USD GOLD. Looks like we're having a triangle in functions here as well. A thrust in the triangle is generally a terminal movement
which will change the trend, at least short term. The current triangle is in accord with my forecast that this is actually the last E-wave of
a sizable 4th wave bearish triangle.

4 Hour :



Daily chart

EUR/USD - Possible 4th wave triangle in progress.

If that is a bearish triangle, it should end the cycle of this downleg using
a push towards the 1.3290 level before resuming to the upside.

GOLD XAU/USD:

Since my post in April I have maintained my opinion that Gold is in a bearish triangle, and I still do.

The gold bulls comes in full force, yet again.... As my chart indies the current rally must be the last leg (E)
within this large triangle that should result in a sharp 5 tide downleg towards the 1100 - 1050 level.
Ideally, the E-wave needs to top between 1350 - 1360.

Upward keylevel in 1392 would invalidate the triangle.

quote SP ES: Since my Upgrade on June 30. Priced moved marginally higher before beginning last weeks nosedive downleg. On the other hand, the big question now is apparently wether this is really a 4th wave and a new high will be viewed before the larger correction begins September/October. The reason I'm questioning this sharp downleg is that it might just be a C-leg correction from the current highs. Watch 4 hour chart. 4 hour chart which indies an correction. (the B wave made a new high in this case) picture Daily chart which indies a new top towards...

SP ES Weekly update: 5th tide in progress.

The way I count the advance from the February 5 reduced is a 5th tide and the decline the recent weeks is a tide 4 of the 5 wave advance.
If this is true we could now begin to compute the approximate target that ought to be the reduced 2000's up to 2060.

Everything depends on the shape of the possible 5th wave that could take shape for a triangle, finishing diagonal or a plain 5 tide advance.
If this really is a tide 5, then a pullback should provide a low risk buying opportunity. The low must be in if this is really a 4th, otherwise it'll be invalidated.

quote SP 500 (ES) - WEEKLY UPDATE. This is what I see today, but as allways, the outcome remains to be seen. A high might just be in and a bigger pullback may be in the cards for the SP 500. The price is simply briefly above the levels in my last update on June 6. You will find powerful resistance and confluences at current levels in addition to both daily and weekly upper bollingerbands.

SP ES: Since my update on June 30. Priced moved slightly higher before beginning last weeks nosedive downleg.
But, the major question now seems to be wether that is really a 4th wave and a new high is viewed before the bigger
correction starts September/October. The reason I'm questioning this eloquent downleg is the fact that it might well
be a C-leg correction in the current highs. Watch 4 hour chart.

4 hour chart which suggests an A-B-C correction. (the B wave made a new high in this instance)


Daily chart which suggests a new high towards the 2000 degree