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thread: Do The Trading Room

  1. #1
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83

    Do The Trading Room

    I entered in short dollar positions through Friday's New York session on the two eur/usd (2729 @ 1:2) and aud/usd (7577 @ 1:2). I am calling the last two trading days' dollar rally bs. There was not anything substantial there - Philly Fed, Consumer Sentiment and also China's 27bp increase really meant nothing in the long run. This backed by extremely lower amounts, even for summertime.

    The market just does not seem appropriate to me. Something is happening and I feel that the fundamentals have changed - I just don't know it yet. We've been stuck in a tight range throughout summer and fall is very likely to bring about the inevitable break-out.

    The simple fact that I am positioned short dollars has to do with the reality that I found good entry points - 2800 being a degree at which good sized bids are put;

    18 Aug 2006 13:03 GMT
    BULLET: EURO-DOLLAR: Gets a modest soda to $1.2815 area as by.
    EURO-DOLLAR: Requires a modest soda to $1.2815 area as buying by a U.S.
    investment name ripples throughout the market, returning the pair into atop
    $1.2800. Offers expected to cap round the area of overnight highs.

    Offered by: Market News International

    About the aussie; the chart demones that there were stops washed out 7560 after which we got the immediate pop higher. After investing in a 150 pip range for nearly a month this may be the stop washout that was required to let the market move higher. *As a side note these stop washouts often precede massive movements *

  2. #2
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    A quick update. Just entered a bid on usd/cad (1175 @ 1:2). Will check back just before Retail Sales come out.

  3. #3
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    I have a limit to sell usd/jpy in 11600 (1:2). I believe 11675 will prove to be the top. My order may never get filled but I have already got other dollar shorts so it's no big deal if I miss out on this one.

  4. #4
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    One currency that's caught my attention is that the loonie. And for all of the wrong reasons;

    Bearish Sentiment Prevails at Loonie
    Friday, 18 August 2006 19:21:35 GMT

    Instead, the sudden 0.6% decline in Statistics Canada's wholesale sales indior was driving positioning. The drop was the biggest since February and came largely on the part of a 2.1% drop in auto sales and also a 2.3% contraction at the'other' egory. Earnings on the wholesaler degree account for a larger share of the service industry compared to retail figure, although the latter will probably garner more market curiosity. Another interesting facet of this data that was released today was the 0.8% rise in inventories. This boosted the frequently read stock to sales ratio to 1.23 from 1.21 the month before and places Canadian businesses in the precarious position of increasing their own stockpiles though earnings are slowing. This could slow generation even further in the coming months, a potential that is concerning as factories are already fighting a tall currency that is cutting into exports.

    Composed by John Kicklighter, Junior Currency Analyst
    By DailyFx.com

    The Loonie was the weakest appearing currency close to the end of last week and adding to this is the fact that oil prices appear prepared for a correction doesn't help much either. Infact the main driver of a prospective decline in the currency could be the Canadian market itself. The 2.1% fall in auto sales (a major indior of the economy) doesn't bode well for the upcoming week that include two very important data releases.

    Retail Sales tomorrow at 12:30 GMT
    CPI on Tuesday at 11:00 GMT

  5. #5
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    A lot of dollar provides out there this morning and my usd/cad limit has been filled (1225 @ 1:2). The usd/cad is looking very feeble but I'm willing to hang in there and wait for Retail Revenue (exp. 0.2percent prev. -0.6percent ) at 12:30 GMT. I will increase my long (@ 1:2) before the news comes out as I expect the dollar to generate an intraday comeback as the euro stalls at 2900.

    [IFR Forex Watch]


    [SQUAWK BOX]

    [10:12 USD/CAD: Fridays Profits Erased From Broad Market Trend] London, August 21. Commodity market uncertainty after the Chinese rate move dealt the CAD a blow late last week and USD/CAD took on the higher ground. But into Monday and new broad based US dollar wobbles have triggered a retracement with Fridays 1.1200 to 1.1275 range wiped out and a lot of the Thursday rally also negated. Fridays much poorer than anticipated Canadian revenue statistics has also been abandoned as moves in USD/JPY, EUR/USD and cable dominate market sentiment. Fridays soft confidence amount from the united states plus continuing expectations for a further reduction in ECB money policy has shaped early Monday commerce along with the Loonie has been among the key beneficiaries. USD/CAD has fallen from overdue Asian levels around 1.1240 to a London low of 1.1175. Stops were reportedly triggered on the break under 1.1200 and there are rumours of larger orders lurking under 1.1150. A clear US data diary but Canada has June retail sales. The market is trying to find a small 0.2% increase on the month from Mays 0.6percent fall.

    Lt;/PREgt;

    The pair includes powerful support at 1175, however any lesser than 1150 and I'm outta there.


    lt;/PREgt;

  6. #6
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    On the other end I have a new issue and that is the best way to add to my long eur/usd position. I typically like to add on b/o's but 2900 is a significant level and since we are there right now I will have to await either lower or higher prices to add. I've put a limit at 2850 (@ 1:2) and might have to wait and see what happens. There's nothing critical on the calendar this week (though New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders on Thursday may move the market) and that I don't expect EU news to move the market much.

    [04:06 GMT August 21st] [EUR/USD] up on flows seen related to Russias Paris Club debt repayment today. Offers from 1.2850-80 absorbed in move up. Some light stops above 1.2850 help. Bids moved up to 1.2870 area. Stops eyed above 1.2910 double shirt.
    [07:02 GMT August 21] [EUR/USD] Offers trail from 1.2890 back to 1.2900. Stops above 1.2910.
    [08:20 GMT August 21st] [EUR/USD] Speak of official flows to the 1.29 manage to help stem further aggressive buying.

  7. #7
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    08/21/2006 03:59:25 AM
    AUSSIE: Opened in Asia at $0.7585 and proceeded up through $0.7600 as rate tracked euro-dollar strength. Decent sized stops currently being tested in $0.7615/20 with a break higher viewing little offers made from $0.7640 to $0.7670. Large option barrier at $0.7725 rolls off this Thursday. On the downside a large barrier at $0.7550 likely to loe defensive bids beforehand with big stops building beneath.
    Source:MNI

    [09:54 AUD/USD: wholesome Recovery Following Friday 0.7565 Spike Low] London, August 21. An impressive Aussie recovery after Fridays slump to 0.7565 but the rally to 0.7633 has much to do with a wide based US dollar fall than any outright AUD strength. This said there has been a reasonable amount of AUD/NZD profit taking, that has added to the feel of the rebound.Sentiment towards the AUD turned negative last week resulting in the AUD being the worst performing currency for the week aside from the ZAR. The sliding gold price and relentless unwinding of long-term long AUD/NZD positions weighed as did the minor dovish change in RBA expectations after Macfarlane spoke on Friday. The market is still searching to get a 25 BP increase by year round, but in accore with the futures market the chances are closer to 70% from 90% before the RBA governor spoke. Traders believe that the AUD might muster a bit this week following the hefty unwinding of longs and stops are now beginning to construct above 0.7620. Key support this week is loed at the double-bottom formed in 0.7560/65.

    I believe aud/usd is looking well placed to move higher in the long run. I've got a bid in 7600 (@ 1:2) and will consider any break under 7550 as a sign to get out.

    The most important principle here is to add to a winners and while I am giving the usd/cad long a bit of space, even adding to it, (I have a alyst to trade against) becoming out of your losers quickly is just as vital.

  8. #8
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    My bid was missed by just a handfull of pips, the non (ask) being 1177 on Oanda (the order is cancelled now that the news has come and gone). I believe this will be the base and will look to begin adding after we get over 1300. I have put in stops in 1170/60 because if we get any lower than 1170 it will mean the news spike has reversed and usd/cad is going down for the longer duration.

    [12:43 USD/CAD: Rallies Back Above 1.1200 As Retail Sales Disappoints] San Fran, August 21. Canadian retail sales have disappointed with earnings declining -0.2% in June against expectations of a 0.3% rise with a revision to -0.5% in May (prev. -0.6percent ). Resistance is
    tipped at 1.1220 and greater at 1.1275/80 and the highs out of Friday. Benefits on EUR/USD this morning may serve to temper the CAD weakness however, together with EUR/USD shooting over 1.2900.

    The Euro is in crucial land at the moment with a lot of option barriers and stops loed just above 2900. I would just yet see my 2850 bid being stuffed.

    [12:35 EUR/USD: Stop-Driven Run Requires Euro To New Highs] New York August 21. After faltering before 1.2905 for many hours, and ancient US buying surge took the EUR through quits at 1.2910 to propel the pair to new highs for the month of 1.2947. The IMM were quite active buyers around the rest, taking in approximately 90 mln EUR. Rumours of 1.2950 obstacles being defended, although we have never been able to confirm this.
    Resource: [IFR Forex Watch]
    [SQUAWK BOX]

    08/21/2006 08:14:32
    EURO-DOLLAR: Slowly grinding its way greater, the rate breaking preceding European Day highs around $1.2905 as it has dragged higher by euro-yen (this latter pair has been the main driver at overnight Asian commerce ). Earlier reports suggest that Asian offers (Korean and Chinese ) were placed around $1.2925 a rest above to start a move on toward $1.2950. Option hurdles at $1.3000 and at euro-yen in Y150.00 appear to be moving into view a single trader has commented.
    Source: MNI

  9. #9
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    I have transferred my bids on eur/usd and aud/usd around 2880 (1:2) and 7620 (1:2).

    The drop in usd/cad following the poor Retail Sales has made me think twice and after being discontinued to the first half of my position at 1170 I have reversed my postion and shorted at 1180 (@ 1:2). I think we are due to see a fairly straight drop down do about 1.1000 so I have put in a stop sell order down at 1155.

    I'm keeping my attention on eur/jpy. I think it's due for a correction lower but there is no way I'll go short - it could still spike into 15000. I'll wait for 14900-ish prior to trying to buy.

  10. #10
    Member Rocky's Avatar
    83
    My bids on both aud/usd and eur/usd were stuffed overnight. Here are the charts.

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