Beyond the Daily Chart - Fundamental Trade / Carry Trade -
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thread: Beyond the Daily Chart - Fundamental Trade / Carry Trade

  1. #51
    Senior Member miserabilay's Avatar
    110
    AUD/USD Update

    This is the Most Recent prediction from GS on the Christmas day Printed on Forexcrunch.com
    http://www.forexcrunch.com/5-factors...goldman-sachs/

    GS points Outside the 5 key factors Behind AUD collapse in months to come.
    GS: AUD/USD in 0.83 in 3 months, 0.81 in 6 month, and 0.79 within 12 months.


    The continuing fall in commodity prices. Iron ore is currently at USD68/tn, 50% lower than in the start of the calendar year, with a 12% fall since the beginning of November. Ongoing China expansion concerns as the authorities continue to facilitate policy in order to attain the 2014 expansion target, indiing that underlying growth momentum remains fragile. Dollar appreciation on a trade-weighted basis against the back drop of US economic outperformance and Fed rhetoric which points to rate hikes in mid-2015. Weak Australian statistics which has motivated the market to dismiss at one RBA cut within the next 12 months. And the rise in risk aversion. A lot of people may argue GS prediction isn't always on-point, but this is just a reference. GS and I would concur that moment.

  2. #52
    Senior Member miserabilay's Avatar
    110
    3 Attachment(s) AUDUSD Update

    While holiday weekends are approaching, the 0.8100 support level definitely is acting up on the 1hr chart.
    Https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...evolution.html

    Note the 0.8100 degree was also the support level in 2010.
    Https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...tes-pairs.html

    Ideas:
    0.8100 won't break easily given the reality there isn't much liquidation left for AUD and USD the subsequent two weeks, unless there is enormous profit taking kicks in during the Christmas and New Year (really low chance)

    But two weeks are rather long time, anything could happen, and planet may end in a flash.

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Everybody!
    https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...es-better.html

  3. #53
    Senior Member miserabilay's Avatar
    110
    1 Attachment(s) Update on USD/JPY

    While Fed is going right into 2015 with the chance of rate hike in early Q2 2015, '' I thought the 120.00 amount was a too good of a deal to pass on. I picked up two positions within this portfolio.
    Https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...es-better.html
    https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...g-journal.html
    12/23/14 Upon the GDP launch this morning, UJ well pass outside its 120.00 degree.

    However, as for the drawback of USD economy, this morning showed,USD had equally disappointing amounts BOTH new home sales and existing home sales. Core Durable fantastic order has not improved for 5 months straight which would raise concerns for current and future expansion.

  4. #54
    Senior Member miserabilay's Avatar
    110
    1 Attachment(s) Update on AUDUSD
    https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...day-trade.html
    AUDUSD adequate to 0.8100 leave as USD GDP hit its highest point since Q1 2010 this morning.

    In addition RBA shows fruion by the continuing strength of the AUD
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...ia-credit.htmlAUD is up 3.9 percent against the yen at 2014 Up 2.4% against the euro An iron-ore glut has halved prices of the Vital export AUDUSD downward pressure persists.

  5. #55
    Senior Member miserabilay's Avatar
    110
    1 Attachment(s) AUDUSD
    https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...ding-edge.html
    12/17/14 Latest Remark from USD Fed SaidThat rate hike could come as soon as along with a set of rate hikes will follow 12/7/14 Week AUD Steven statedAUDUSD ought to be stay well under 0.800, 0.7000. 12/16/14 The newest AUD minutes too consistent with Steve and statedAUD rate is currently above its fundamental value, and a low AUD rate is good for the market. If the fundamental reasons above don't change , it is quite possible to see AUDUSD has space to have thighs down below 0.800 while the bear tendency is well preserved on 4h and daily chart.

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