USD/RUB -
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thread: USD/RUB

  1. #11
    Neutral at the moment.

  2. #12
    Junior Member jgj003's Avatar
    10
    USD/RUB, Moscow interbank bourse.
    Long term view.

    Long lasting ruble depreciating, obviously observable five waves urge since the center of 2011.
    Impulse is very huge and long in time. After every move should be a split, every impulse needs a correction. So large correction has already started, we could point correction goal directly - it's the closest fractal down, the end of tide 4. Note, how precisely wave 4 divides each of five waves urge into the golden ratio, the smallest part is 0.382 along with also the highest component is 0.618 of the entire wave length. This level will draw in future price movements.
    Let us take a look at the very first move down.

    First move down is a impulse, is made up of five waves. This implies directly, that the entire move down will be A-B-C zigzag, we see its first part - tide A. What's else ? Triangle !
    Wave 4 of wave A is a triangle using parallel lines. Very good. Wave 4 is a correction, triangular corrections preceed the price move, so thrust out of wave 4 is a final one. Else ?
    Triangles have a magic property to pull future price movements. After reverse price attempts to make it to the end of triangle and, generally, can it quite aggressively and quickly. Current wave A down is ending now, we wait patiently for correction a-b-c up. Already first wave a of the correction will attempt to accomplish the end of triangular wave 4, it's roughly 67 beverage per usd. This is goal level for an initial move up.
    Has tide A down finished ? Let us take a look at its final wave 5 under.

    Cartoon 1 - initial triangle, wave 3 is the strongest tide with clearly observable subwaves, also we see that the end push. Yes tide 5 is over or there will be the last short drop. Reverse is close. Time to BUY USD from RUB, SELL your own BUY close 67 rub per usd.
    // -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Now is 10 january 2017 close 09-20 GMT, we continue ruble tracking.
    As we have noted in the prior posts, USD/RUB was ending its first move down, and we have stated, that either move is already over, or the past short drop demanded. Now at the time of this article USD/RUB has fallen once again and very quickly rebound upward, so we treat the final wave 5 as complete.

    We have already introduced our trading choice to BUY US dollar against ruble, decision was a bit premature, but we do not take the risk to lose opportunity and we did not count much on the previous drop, because these drops are volatiles as a guideline and therefore are hard to ch. You will see trading choice details at our webpage in Decisions area or at the ProductsRussian ruble.
    We continue to monitor US dollar against Russian ruble here and maintain our trading choice to BUY USD against RUB before the first goal - end of previous wave 4 - approximately 67 rub per 1 usd.
    // ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Now is 12 january 2017. We see another USD/RUB drop, but price hasn't dropped below the previous underside. We still think, USD/RUB is reversing and it will continue its rise. Forecast is precisely the exact same. We've got open BUY position, bought usd against rub.

    As long as USD/RUB is above the end of tide A(dark red label) we continue to hold position with the identical forecast for future ruble move.

  3. #13
    sliced through 60, going for 59 now.

    Eventually my profit is matching my gathered rollover...

  4. #14
    TRex as secretary of state, will help...

    @earl, thanks to the chart.

  5. #15
    quote 60 appears to be a excellent initial target. I am currently not in the trade. Fair value in accore with last year's funding should be at 55. I am not in the exchange because I am not positive if this euphoria in oil will continue. .
    It rarely last . A lot of rigs in US visit production if prices for oil stay above 55 - 60 for a longer period.

    I am still in but have partly hedges against shorts oil so profit is your swap a few.

    I post a map with station too (wide one on each week) . We're near reverse level from 2015 .

  6. #16
    Anyone care to place some chart forecast? Looks like it's heading to 60 soon. Is this ching up? @. What is market value now?
    60 seems to be a excellent first target. I am currently not in the trade. Fair value in accore with last year's funding should be at 55. I am not in the exchange since I am not sure whether this euphoria in oil will continue. .

  7. #17
    Anyone care to post some chart prediction?

    Looks like it is going to 60 soon.

    Can this ching up? @manosk. What's fair market value today?

  8. #18
    How are you guys? I briefly looked at the schedule, it'd be good to leap into 65,30 - 65,5 before going down to 60 - 56 . I still think that the ruble will be strengthened within six months or a year. We'll see in the close future 60 and 56. Like I said before that rumors may affect, literally, a while ago some analyst said that we will observe the dollar for 120, I told the story that when there is a rumor that the dollar will rise - rather, it's for sale and Vice versa. I haven't heard news in the Central Bank about this, perhaps I just haven't...
    Russia has severe funding issues, they need week ruble now. Their Central Bank will continue to maintain current rate unless I think Oil reaches $60-65 per barrel, so perhaps its only carry trading available on USDRUB for now.

  9. #19
    How are you guys? I looked at the schedule, it'd be helpful to leap to 65,30 - 65,5 before going down to 60 - 56 . I still believe the ruble will be bolstered within six months or a year. We will see in the near future 60 and 56. Like I said earlier that rumors may impact, literally, some time ago some analyst stated that we'll observe the dollar for 120, I told the story that when there's a rumor that the dollar increases - rather, it's for sale and Vice versa. I have not heard news from the Central Bank concerning this, perhaps I just have not watched...

  10. #20
    I opted to close the position this morning in the opening taking 63.51 for a very great profit. We're apartment and searching for opportunities which should come as oil euphoria fades and USD/RUB has a gap to 64 that should close.

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