thread: Dax - Daily analysis and Discussion

quote You mean you really let her!!??

I know!!
It is almost as if they had a mind of their own...

GER30_08_MAY_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2HUikk9X/

I will share one thing with you however, and I've written about it before, so I will be brief. There's a major plogical defect which seems to exist is all people which is the number one reason why we all shed until we have worked out what it's. I wonder if anybody knows exactly what it is? Maybe I will leave it with you over the weekend. In fact, it's quite difficult to describe, so without going and looking for my prior article on it which I presume was on my own trader's academy thread, I will have to compose it somewhat. Any opinions though are more than welcome....

I'm not positive whether this question was directed to me, but my job in these last few months made me realize a couple of things about trading and about myself in general, so here are the few realizations I came to even though they might not answer the question of why traders lose.
Strat (Strat's PASR Long Term, Anxiety Free Trading), whom I will revere as my mentor for the rest of my life is the person who pressured me to come down from my high horse and take a few truths. He made me realize I control nothing, except how much punishment I am willing to take, the rest is beyond my power. I stopped trying to restrain a million billion monster with my own money and instead of participating in a daily fight, I started a daily conversation where I understand when to talk and when to be silent.

As I read what I just wrote, I realized that I could have talked about my connection with wife as much as about my trading...

GER30_07_MAY_2018
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qXcsXvo5/

GER30_13_MARCH_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/Fa1cdfgk/

GER30_09_MARCH_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/pBtnGOYN/

25,200, fine 25,196 reached on the Dow, so that panned out exactly as I predicted it might. Dax as I mentioned above was more unsure, but the 76.4% fib resistance amount I highlighted in my first post today was reached, and it held, so all in all, both Dax and Dow pretty much played ball today, although the Dax did not fall as low this morning as I believed it might, discovering its support as it did on the 30m 100sma.

To increase the above post today that we have seen the initial move now.

NFP later can proceed the price everywhere, and Dax, with found service, is now poised to go either way.

So I am currently concentrating on the Dow that could help with the leadership later, and NFP aside, I am bullish on it on the Daily, H4 and H1 time frames. As I siad, NFP will proceed the price anywhere regardless of the technicals, but you're going to find that actually, it usually remains true to the technicals once the initial move was created, so an adverse move against them after NFP, will usually fix and go together, so be prepared for this in the event that you are trading Dax or Dow now.

If I am right, and the price does go north, then it appears like it could be a 300 pip go or so now out of the current price as I type, so 25,200 or so on the Dow. Dax is more difficult to gauge, but it is going to surely adhere to the Dow whichever way that goes.

If Dow dips back following NFP, also holds support, then I will be placing the fibs on from the March 7th reduced, as the 50% or the 61.8% could hold that, maybe even the 76.4%.

Lower than the March 7th low? Moving on the technicals I'd say no, even if it is a very awful NFP number. We will know soon enough.

NFP today. Following is a 2 hourly chart showing exactly what I think might occur at some stage now.

Yesterday, the 100sma held the price to the upside, and we might loe Dax finding support on it now, especially as it falls right on top of today's S1 pivot.

If it will break to the upside across the London open, then the 76.4 percent is just above as you can see, and that I have other MA Resistance just below it in around 12,390. The H3 200ema is just above the 76.4 percent fib @ 12,428, which is also now's R1, so lots of resistance above where we live now.

Good luck!

Ps - I forgot to put the trend line in, which runs straight through the possible 100sma support I've revealed, so another reason why this ought to be powerful support if the price has there.

GER30_08_MARCH_2018
https://br.tradingview.com/x/mGonPsmY/