thread: How I Turned 1k To 100k In A Wk!!!

94840

Please advice.
Where did u get the COT report from. . Any hyperlinks please

And I think EUR is bullish
GBP is bearish
JPY bullish


thanks

you may do it here:
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...istorical.html

948401 Structure (s)

Ok--here goes possible scenarios for next wk according to COT report (01/08)-- Please use your discretion, good MM favorable TA to exchange this report--It could take more than a wk to perform the scenarios--

Cad: Bearish
Chf: Volatility w/ bullish bias
Gbp: Volatility w/ bearish bias
Jpy: Volatility w/ bullish bias
Eur: Volatility w/ neutral prejudice
Nzd: Bearish
Aud: Bearish bias

GL/GT

M

Mysticgenie,

As per this post:
https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...t-trading.html
I utilize COT report at a really optional way--this report lags by atleast 3 days--small trick I employ--only watch the PA from tuesday till weekend watch the change if it conforms w/ COT report or not--usually opinions from COT report takes sometime to appear --Now what to search for:
1. Look for noncomercial rankings ( I'll take 12/18/07 COT report for instance on NZD, rememberthis is yr ending --so this report may not reflect the true rankings because of yr end position squarings)--you may see, the overall longs diminished shorts rising, while OI can also be decreasing fitting well w/ fall of NZD till 12/18
2. Now look at commercials--those places mainly signify hedging--but should you see intense difference b/w long shorts of commercial places, you can expect some adjutments (i.e., squaring of shorts)
3. Now look at overall percentage of OI of both noncommercials advertisements you see nearly 100% short positions (now that's extreme)
4. This report strongly suggests alteration of Nzd which occurred just --Nzd started strengthening because last 9 days roughly
5. Now you wait for following COT report so on--be sure to take into account the following 3 days (after tuesday) for good interpretation of the report
6. You can just predict future direction if you notice some intense position like the example above--
================================================== ======

along with my attachment I want to know why you say AUD is bearish.

- The NON-Commercials went longer 9,046 in precisely the same time they went more short 3,674 but longer so upmove supported
- The Commmercials went more brief than last week by 10,663 thus confirming up move
- Open curiosity went up by 17,975 thus confirming the upmove at AUD last week
- Wednesday, Thusday, Friday AUD went upward
The one thing that I can observe that represents AUD bearish is the Total Long / Short places which are 49,329/67,615 along with the Changes in Commnts from: December 31, 2007 which are 9,488/14,744 (more went short) and Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader that's in 62.9/86.2 (86.2 are short)
I realise that the COT is useful at extremes in placement but I'd lke to know why you believe AUD is bearish.

Thank you for this thread... you are an inspiration.
Danny

94840

Ok--here goes possible scenarios for next wk based on COT report (01/08)-- Please use your discretion, Appropriate MM Beneficial TA to Exchange this report--It may take more than a wk to play out the Situations --

Cad: Bearish
Chf: Volatility w/ bullish bias
Gbp: Volatility w/ bearish bias
Jpy: Volatility w/ bullish bias
Eur: Volatility w/ neutral Prejudice
Nzd: Bearish
Aud: Bearish bias

GL/GT

M

Thanks for your Opinion, it Informs me that you see more USD bulls from high-yielding currencies (safe Harbor ). Can you please clarify me nearer you for example see Yen bullish? So I can better understand just how you read it.

Yen numbers (non commercial complete interest):
62,001 28,857 17,563 (rankings )
20,251 -15,976 -578 (change)
85.5 90.9 (total interest)

Which of the numbers tells you the bullish bias? Or is it your gut feeling (instinct )? Since AUD has rather similar numbers (more bulls than bears, more bulls additional compared to bears, higher total short interest) and you see AUD bearish.

Thx for your timeexplanation.

94840

Mysticgenie,

As per this article:
https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...exit-ergy.html
I utilize COT report in a very optional way--this report lags by atleast 3 days--small trick I use --just celebrate the PA from tuesday till weekend see the change if it conforms w/ COT report or maybe not --usually views from COT report takes sometime to show upNow what to look for:
1. Start looking for noncomercial rankings ( I will take 12/18/07 COT report as an example on NZD, recall this is yr ending --so this report might not reflect the true rankings because of yr end position squarings)--you may see, the entire longs decreased shorts rising, whilst OI is also decreasing fitting well w/ autumn of NZD till 12/18
2. Now look at commercials--these positions mainly signify hedging--but if you see intense difference b/w long shorts of industrial positions, you can expect some adjutments (i.e., squaring of shorts)
3. Now look at overall percentage of OI of both noncommercials advertisements you see nearly 100% short positions (now that's intense )
4. This report strongly suggests reversal of Nzd which happened exactly--Nzd began strengthening since last 9 days roughly
5. Now you wait for following COT report so on--remember to take into account the following 3 times (later tuesday) for proper interpretation of the report
6. It is possible to only predict future leadership if you notice some intense position like the example above--
================================================== ======

along with my attachment I would like to know why you state AUD is bearish.

- The NON-Commercials went more long 9,046 in the same time they went more short 3,674 but more long so upmove supported
- The Commmercials went more brief than last week by 10,663 thus confirming up movement
- Open interest went up with 17,975 thus confirming the upmove in AUD last week
- Wednesday, Thusday, Friday AUD travelled up
The one thing that I can see that represents AUD bearish is the overall Long / Short positions that are 49,329/67,615 along with the Changes in Commnts from: December 31, 2007 that are 9,488/14,744 (more travelled short) and Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader which is in 62.9/86.2 (86.2 are short)
I realise that the COT is most useful at extremes in positioning but I'd lke to know why you think AUD is bearish.

Thank you for this thread... you are an inspiration.
Danny

Excellent query Danny--
Remember even if it might not be full reversal, but atleast a retracement is expected after a wk's continuing upmove--
Here is why:

1. COT report concludes by 3 days--Aud has gone up following compilation of the report further skewing to the intense positioning
2. Another point I haven't discussed up to now, but helps a lot in case of vague situations is to look at'noreportable rankings' --that are also important in numbers--I assume them as noncommercial as a whole--thus, by OI, nearly 83% noncommercial longs till final tuesday to not rely for the remaining days' placement --
3. Finally prevailing market conditions probable drawback of stocks next wk as a consequence of unsatisfactory results from many US corporates incl banks (unless ofcourse, There's some driven intervention from Bernanke co.-- that will only briefly postpone the inevitable, i.e., increasing inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices)

GL/GT

M

94840

Thanks for your perspective, it informs me that you see more USD bulls against high-yielding currencies (safe haven). Could you please clarify me closer, why you for example see Yen bullish? So I can understand how it is read by you.

Yen numbers (non commercial complete attention ):
62,001 28,857 17,563 (positions)
20,251 -15,976 -578 (alter )
85.5 90.9 (total interest)

Which of the numbers tells you that the bullish bias?

Mades, please visit my above reply--same principle applies--noncommercial longs 49% should you take nonreportable positions into account--considerable scope for further yen appreciation--add to that raising risk aversion sustained yuan appreciation (recall yen often performs proxy for yen yuan in Currency Market to some extent)--

GL/GT

M

94840

Mades, please visit my above response exactly the same principle applies--noncommercial longs 49% should you choose nonreportable positions into account--ample scope for further yen appreciation--add to this increasing risk aversion continuing yuan appreciation (recall yen frequently plays proxy for yen yuan in FX to some extent)--

GL/GT

M

So if I understand correctly (if not, please correct me):

AUD: ~83% (non-commercial nonreportable) 3 times of appreciation indicates , that the amount 83 will be greater and we are near the extrema and turning stage.
YEN: ~41% (non-commercial nonreportable) quite small yen depreciation indicates , that yen bulls didn't run out of power yet and will add more long positions (changes till last tuesday 20,251 for longs, then a small depreciation till friday).

Please, focus solely on COT report, not other fundamental data you included also in answer to danny. I am curious what you can read from COT, so I can understand your own readings. Thank you.

94840

Great question Danny--
Remember even if it may not be full reversal, but atleast a retracement is expected after a wk's continuing upmove--
This is why:

1. COT report concludes by 3 days--Aud has gone up after compilation of this report further skewing to the extreme positioning
2. Another point I have not discussed so far, but helps a lot in the event of vague scenarios would be to look at'noreportable positions' --that are also important in numbers--I presume them as noncommercial as a whole--so, by OI, almost 83% noncommercial longs till last tuesday to not rely for the remaining days' positioning--
3. Finally prevailing market conditions likely downside of equities next wk as a consequence of unsatisfactory results from many US corporates incl banks (unless ofcourse, there is some driven intervention from Bernanke co.-- that will only briefly postpone the inevitable, i.e., increasing inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices)

GL/GT

M

Agreed a retracement is expected as per the analysis by pfxglobal.com (please see attachment) see post also:
https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...nectivity.html

Additionally this informative article by NewstraderFX:
https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...s-signals.html

A pleasant retrace to the neckline in AUD/USD in .8800 and we're good to go until .9350 potentially (over 500 pips). Bernanke and the plunge protection team will not permit the US market go to the dumpster especially if with Bush's last year in office. And with the commodity prices continued to move up (especially gold) as well as the AUD market in great shape.

A potentially really sweet trade. Lets see what we get until Jan 30/31.

Did I say that I like forum? Really great people here!

94840

If I understand correctly (if not, please correct me):

AUD: ~83% (non-commercial nonreportable) 3 days of appreciation suggests, that the number 83 will be higher and we are close to the extrema and turning stage.
YEN: ~41% (non-commercial nonreportable) quite modest yen depreciation suggests, that yen bulls didn't run out of power yet and will add more long positions (changes till last tuesday 20,251 for longs, then a little depreciation till friday).

Please, focus solely on COT report, not other fundamental data you included also in response to danny. I am interested only what you are able to read from COT, so I can understand your readings. Thank you.

Great questions mades. I am holding my breath for the response:-)

94840I went through another COT reports and my simple logic how MG could possible read it now tells me :

You add the amounts and try to guess, what the amount (total interest non-commercial nonreportable) and the tendency is now, thinking about PA tuesday-friday.
When the amount (extended ) until tuesday is close to 80 and the trend continued, it is possible to anticipate turning point (AUD/NZD).
When the amount (extended ) is about 70 or reduced and you also visit PA tuesday-friday bullish (EUR/CHF), you can expect continuation of trend until the extrema point.
When the amount (brief ) is around 70 or reduced and you also visit PA tue-fri bearish (CAD/GBP) and more added shorts positions until tuesday (so the tendency tue-fri continued) and the amount is far from extrema, you can anticipate continuation of current tendency.

Now I dont consider some other fundamental data. I tried to only fit it into the readings of MG, since I have read it and wrong.

94840

I went through the other COT reports and my easy logic how MG can potential read it now tells me :

You include the numbers and try to guess, what the amount (total interest differential nonreportable) and the tendency is at this moment, considering PA tuesday-friday.
If the amount (long) until tuesday is close to 80 and the trend continued, it is possible to expect turning point (AUD/NZD).
If the amount (long) is around 70 or lower and you see PA tuesday-friday bullish (EUR/CHF), you can expect continuation of trend until the extrema point.
If the amount (short) is around 70 or lower and you see PA tue-fri bearish (CAD/GBP) and also more added shorts places until tuesday (so the tendency tue-fri lasted ) and the amount will be far from extrema, you can expect continuation of current tendency.

Now I dont consider some other fundamental data. Since I have read it otherwise and maybe erroneous, Additionally, I attempted to only fit it in to the readings of MG.

You are place on Mades--besides that also see the change in Open Interest-- Sorry for adding FA to COT report herebut, I only attempted to remind you all the whole picture counts ultimately (i.e., TA FA)--

GL/GT

M