thread: Any pin will do?

I thought I'd comment on it, and saw this article. I am a senior member at J16, and therefore, am intimately knowledgeable about pinbars. My answers are in bold/blue.

BELIEFS

I've read a lot of information about nearly everything here at FF and have tried to distill from it a couple of truths about forex (if you can find some )

This is what I am left with.

The only thing that price appears to respect are significant amounts, whether you call this support, resistance, PPZ's, preceding highds/lows.

Price reacts to these but its pretty difficult to forecast , will it rebound or
break?

The aforementioned is true, so far as price respecting particular locations. The reason for this, in my opinion, could be areas where institutions that are larger are interested in selling or buying. It isn't my orderyours. It will be Citibank, the ECB, or any large buyer/seller. I am correct in my concept? It is does not matter....it is what it is.

One factor which got me to profit was to stop stressing about the WHY, but the WHAT. Meaning....if pinbars generally job....that's all that matters. Who cares why?

Also, why forecast what will occur? Why not REACT to it? Much safer and smarter. (A lot less like gambling.)

Smaller time frames expose themselves more to the noise of forex and also the costs (disperse ) become more significant. On the other hand if this can be managed scalping can have lots of advantages that of growing your account faster.

Authentic, and it will also increase your chances of getting burnt out. Or a stroke. We're attempting to gain a much better lifestyle through this. Or better yet - freedom. Freedom is NOT sitting at a monitor 18 hours a day scalping the 15 minute chart. At that point - it becomes a quality of life issue.

Trends are great but they can and do end whenever you join them.
Peope say let your winners run and cut winners brief, how do you know a
winner? , you predict the future.

Get over that difficulty. No, we cannot forecast the future. That's fear speaking. However, we CAN predict another move with all the odds in our favor. It is called risk for a reason.

The weakest point of any technique is human intervention or emotions, wether it be flexing your money management rules or'knowing' were the price is going.
I think a different term for'discretion' is'guessing'. If you can not quantify any component of your sytem it's basically guesswork.
Do not get me wrong, some traders are extremely good and cosistent guessers - im not.

That's fine. However, discretion isn't currently guessing. Actually, discretion of the time for me means NOT taking a transaction. There's no chance of losing money once I am not on the market.

By Way of Example , I use discretion when I decide not to take a pinbar at EUR/USD at 8 a.m. EST, on a Non-Farm Payroll Friday. The majority of the time, I find discretion keeps me OUT of difficulty, not gets me . Is a fantastic commerce missed by me every once in a while? You bet I do. That's life. And that my life has more to it than trading....so it happens.

The only way to acquire time is to find an advantage, stick to the rules that give you that advantage, have belief in that system and exploit it.

I believe that a border is born through probability. If you can prove that
something happens more frequently than not, within an acceptably long period of
time, with precision then maybe, just maybe you might have discovered one.

I agree - however you put way too much thought into this. Price does one of two things....goes up or down. It can go , but only for so long....trading should be easy. Thank God it's.

It us who create it challenging.

Method Theory.

O.k. so now you know where my mentality is I'm going to tell you how I'm attempting to trade.

I say attempting because this system needs considerable refinement.

What I need is your comments to see whether its worth me chasing this idea or not

I assume this system is truly an offspring in the James16 thread so much credit is due there.

It basically uses price action in the form of pinbars to trigger transactions.

A pinbar shows price being refused form a support resistance line.

James16 adopts this price action along with outside pubs and double bar

high/lows with a lower/higher near, strives to weave in some other reasons to take the transaction like fib levels, moving averages etc., and then uses
discretion to make the trade.

I believe that this method works but am not convinced about particular facets of it. Mainly the moving averages and also the frequency of transactions.

There are some of us, myself included, which NEVER use moving averages. In fact, I do not think it helps one way or the other. James and I disagree on that region of the system. But truth be told, my chart have nothing greater than S/R lines. That's all I need.

But, make them of the obvious, significant ones. Weekly ones, daily ones. S/R traces onto a 15 minute chart rarely mean anything.

I suggest you can use any m.a. value you need from 1 to 1000, at any stage
its likely to look relevent into something. And man, I must be really impatient or something but transactions are so infrequent on the daily timeframe that I cant
stand this, and it would take much more time to prove it.

You impatience will charge you money, and a lot of it if you're not careful.

Maybe this is a big weakness for me, maybe this technique will gravitate to the lengthier tf's, however when there's any way potential of navigating the volatile waters of the H1 then id like to try. As I mentioned earlier, scalping has its own advantages

You seriously should begin with weekly and daily. Trust me, after a month or two of yields, you won't require the excitement of trades. But if you can not do it on a daily chart, there's no way you'll be able to do it on a 1 hour chart.

I think that the main thing which I do not like is the discretion facet of it. I really
feel far more comfortable with quantifiable conclusions, would be any more
successfull attempting to hand select trades than I'd trading what that met my quantifiable parameters? This is what im trying to find out.

Beyond that discretion I mentioned earlier with massive news announcements coming out, discretion is in factn't that large of an issue in my opinion. Bear in mind , you can't HAVE to be at the market.

As a rule of thumb , I take every pinbar that is on S/R lines. do they work? No. However, a majority of these do. That majority of these gives more than others ones (winners ) take. That's all you're trying to do....earn more than you lose.

Even when you only are up 10 percent for the year - you're doing better than 90% of the traders out there. You cannot put pressure on to create 2% everyday. Sometimes there simply is not anything worth becoming involved in. Or other instances, there's too much happening in our lives to care....

Remember: TRADE TO LIVE....NOT LIVE TO TRADE.

I hope that this was helpful, as I was hoping to be. I really do want you all the very best of luck, and would state there are. You're on the right track, do not overcomplie it. That's when I started, what I wish I did. Who knows how much better off I'd be?

Clockwork

How can you determine when to allow it to operate or take profit?

Why don't you use trailing-stop? If you have 24/7 Internet access, it won't be an issue.

As to how big is your trailing-stop, you have to look at your manual backtest result. Look at every trade where price runs way over your target profit, find the biggest retracement, and place your stop 1 or 2 2 pip over it.

This is going to be heresy... laff, but I have never had great results w/ pin bars. They don't accurately forecast bottoms or tops. You are going to receive extremes that happen w/o themand you'll get extremes that happen with them... that then keep on going. Look at all of the failed pin bars on the eurusd during the up trend, and return thru various histories and you'll see pin bars that don't bounce... but just ride for a short time.

They do work sometimes, and we could cite all sorts of qualifying motives (oh it struck the magical point here and did this and then that and ooo, wow) and some may even be accurate, but it is really easy to cherry pick the very best examples and dismiss the bad ones that we get an over-inflated sense of accuracy about them... till we go to exchange them, then it is pure fruion. I'm not sure how anybody can manage to exchange w/ such a very low hit percentage and a slow installation timeframe... one win per month simply didn't work for me.

What I found worked better was getting to the core of what a pinbar is. Next time you get one, zoom into a decrease TF and you will notice that a headshoulders pattern. What's happened is that a key resistance or support level was tested and failed, forcing a reversal. After I understood that I started noticing the same patterns (R/S testing) in a lot of other pub patterns, doubles, triples, etc, and beginning using entries that would capture both an examination and a neglect of that area.

Turns out there is not any true magic behind these things. From the pits or in trading rooms across the planet you get tens of thousands of people thinking price... second stop, 2.0! Suddenly things slow down and bounce a bit and don't move forward and people change their mind using price 1.97! And the drop.

Your opinions are greatly appreciated and quite interesting.

There are a couple things which I would like to throw back if you don't mind.


Time frames.

I think the general consensus about the most part appears to be that smaller time frames must be averted.

I agree they are more difficult to manage, and your win/loss ration will decrease because of noise stopping you out more frequently.

However, let me put this to you:

Profitability within a given time period is a product of

Win/loss ratio X Risk/Reward ratio X number of trades in this age.

We strive to enhance these factors to give us greater returns and to me the frequency of trades can be significantly increased by falling time frames.

Moving from the D1 into H1 would produce approximately 6 times as many trades - That is by falling just one time frame. Is much more difficult to trade than the D1. I'd like to know a way of increasing both of the other two variables sixfold.

Moving into the H1 =24 x
H30=48 x
H15=96 x
H5 = 288! X

I know the 5min chart might sound somewhat rediculous but can it be?

I mean, there are levels of resistance in most timeframes, of course varying in power, but price action is price action just on various scales.

Which you still get pinbars about the 5min, simply adjust the transaction parameters so. Your take profit might be a couple of pips, but as you know if this commerce adds 1 percent to your account, just like the Daily, then there is no difference, apart from theres of them.

O.K, the risk reward will endure and win/loss ratio too but by how much?

I bet its not 288 times less. The thing is, from a quick back test the timeframe that is 5min actually improved on ratio.

I think the only real way to really prove this is to complete some comprehensive backtesting, but my first findings are very encouraging.


You say that working around the 5min is trying, but does it need to be?
When you have a fairly much mechanical set of principles and an alert to assist you stay away from watching the display, then its just a case of entering the trades as they arrive in.

Actually I think I would be less stressed worying about whether or not a trade about the 5min will work out, realizing that another will be along in a couple of minutes, than I will on a daily commerce knowing that this might be my only chance this week of earning some profit.

I know it comes down to personal choice in the end of the day and its own what is suitable for your lifestyle

It could be that trading Forex is merely a mere hobby and 5mins a nighttime perusing the dailys is all that you wish to do. But to me personally, I would like to generate some cash as a result of all this time I have invested and therefore I am willing to spend time becoming profitable.


Discretion

I'd just like to touch on this.

You say that discretion isn't guessing, and that it keeps you from numerous loosing trades, but just how many winners does this imply that you overlook?

The point of my method is to eliminate discretion, and work on probabilities only.

Days like NFP fridays are odd, but could be manipulated quite easily by creating a rule which says'don't trade on NFP times'. And anyhow, what's the probability of this transaction going for or against you? It's probably the exact same as any other, just on a larger scale.

You mention fear but is discretion not fear? Can it be not standing on the sidelines because you think its risky to trade?

This stage links in with what RABID has just said

Quote

This is going to be heresy... laff, but I've never had great results w/ pin bars. They don't accurately predict bottoms or tops. You'll get extremes which happen w/o them, and you'll receive extremes that happen with them... which continue going. Look at all the failed pin bars around the eurusd during the up trend, and return thru different histories and you'll see pin bars which don't bounce... but just ride for a short time.

This announcement is quite true, some pinbars sit at such beautifull things on the chart it appears theres no way they'll fail but they perform and spectaculalry sometimes, and vice versa.

My point is that we can not really tell whether or not a pin may work or not, whatever motives we want to use to qualify them, each one has just as much chance as working as another and staying from this market is really down to a gut feeling or'fear'.


Keep it easy

Quote

I agree - however you put far too much thought into this. Price does one of two things....goes up or down. It can go sideways, but only for so long....trading should be easy. Thank God it's.

It us that create it challenging.


This is precisely the reason why I am trying to get rid of discretion, to keep it easy.

I want to spend time doing the tough work of creating and testing a method, reevaluate it, set the principles and then eventually be able to implement it without thought or hesitation.

I don't want to reevaluate every transaction and use discretion, wondering if I should enter or not, moving round in circles for many different kinds of factors.

I merely need a signal and an entry every time, knowing that I've already done the work and set the rules. I would like to use probability.

Ultimately Clockwork, I want to say that, perhaps you are right, perhaps my theories are incorrect, and time will prove that. I mean James16 has one of the very popular and probably successful threads within this forum.

I respect your opinions and about the most part wholeheartedly agree, but just need to challenge a couple of aspects of the method I think could be explored a smidge further.


Please answer because I really look forward to hearing what you think to my ideas.

Yours respectfully

Paul.

Could somebody please clarify some abbreviations for me personally.
I have plotted Price_Action1.1 and that I just know IB(Inside Bar) Pin Up and Away.
What is BuOVB, BeOVB, TBH, TBL MSL and MSH or DBHLC, DBLHC?
A bit glossary using a brief explanation would be fine.

I just borrowed these charts out of a post by Smikester (https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...rs-affect.html) and then re-annotated themillue some of the points I was trying to return in post# 34.

It appears that these charts will be the same pair/timeframe, but provided by brokers in various time zones. Hence my point about different cut-off points hence producing candles, and summarizing different data collections. Note the chart provides the next a double top, a triple shirt. The first chart shows at least 2 (failed) pin-bars, which don#8217;t show up on the next chart. The second instance that was pin-bar gets absorbed into an candle on the next chart.

The most significant attribute on the chart for me is that the big red candle after the high resistance (double/triple shirt ). The momentum raises the odds of a decent move, giving a permit profits run exit egy rein.

David

Could somebody please clarify some abbreviations for me personally.
I've plotted Price_Action1.1 and that I just know IB(Inside Bar) Pin Up and Away.
What's BuOVB, BeOVB, TBH, TBL MSL and MSH or DBHLC, DBLHC?
A little glossary with a brief explanation would be fine.

Tjpld, my understanding of James16 is somewhat dated now.

This is as best as I can remember, perhaps Clockwork71 or somebody else could fill in the gaps:

BuOB: bullish exterior bar = a bullish engulfing candle. Bar fully engulfs its predecessor, and shuts higher than its open (and maybe higher than the top of the preceding bar?) . (Also, I am not sure what the V means).

BeOB: bearish outside bar = a bearish engulfing candle. Bar fully engulfs its predecessor, and shuts lower than its open (and maybe lower than the low of the previous bar?) .

TBH: two-bar high? Oops, I can't remember.

TBL: two-bar low? Ditto.

DBLHC: dual low, higher near. Two consecutive bars with approximately the exact same low, with the next bar's close gt; than it is open (and maybe gt; the high of the very first bar?)

DBHLC: dual top, lower near. Two consecutive bars with approximately the exact same high, with the next bar's close lt; than it is open (and maybe lt; the low of the initial bar?)

Hopefully this gives you a beginning point. Maybe you can find examples on the charts that affirm this.

David

This makes sense!
You've been a great help. Thank you.

Since you're talking daily Bars have a read through this thread. Might give you some suggestions on the best way to tell the good from the bad.
Https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...t-gbp-jpy.html

Enjoy
Ademac

As you are talking daily Pin Bars have a read through this thread. Might give you some suggestions about the best way to tell the good from the bad without an indior.
Https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...d-gbp-jpy.html

Love
Ademac

Interesting thread, Ademac, many thanks. Some live chart-based examples along with both PDFs are a valuable read.

The idea of waiting for a retracement following a pin-bar toward something approaching a dual shirt provides an excellent low risk entry. If, for instance, we can halve the risk (pips from entrance to stoploss), then, everything else being equal, we double our eventual profit factor. The drawback of course being that we will miss some profitable movements, but for me personally, I'm pleased to watch for the trades.

Thanks again,
David