BELIEFS
I've read a lot of information about nearly everything here at FF and have tried to distill from it a couple of truths about forex (if you can find some )
This is what I am left with.
The only thing that price appears to respect are significant amounts, whether you call this support, resistance, PPZ's, preceding highds/lows.
Price reacts to these but its pretty difficult to forecast , will it rebound or
break?
The aforementioned is true, so far as price respecting particular locations. The reason for this, in my opinion, could be areas where institutions that are larger are interested in selling or buying. It isn't my orderyours. It will be Citibank, the ECB, or any large buyer/seller. I am correct in my concept? It is does not matter....it is what it is.
One factor which got me to profit was to stop stressing about the WHY, but the WHAT. Meaning....if pinbars generally job....that's all that matters. Who cares why?
Also, why forecast what will occur? Why not REACT to it? Much safer and smarter. (A lot less like gambling.)
Smaller time frames expose themselves more to the noise of forex and also the costs (disperse ) become more significant. On the other hand if this can be managed scalping can have lots of advantages that of growing your account faster.
Authentic, and it will also increase your chances of getting burnt out. Or a stroke. We're attempting to gain a much better lifestyle through this. Or better yet - freedom. Freedom is NOT sitting at a monitor 18 hours a day scalping the 15 minute chart. At that point - it becomes a quality of life issue.
Trends are great but they can and do end whenever you join them.
Peope say let your winners run and cut winners brief, how do you know a
winner? , you predict the future.
Get over that difficulty. No, we cannot forecast the future. That's fear speaking. However, we CAN predict another move with all the odds in our favor. It is called risk for a reason.
The weakest point of any technique is human intervention or emotions, wether it be flexing your money management rules or'knowing' were the price is going.
I think a different term for'discretion' is'guessing'. If you can not quantify any component of your sytem it's basically guesswork.
Do not get me wrong, some traders are extremely good and cosistent guessers - im not.
That's fine. However, discretion isn't currently guessing. Actually, discretion of the time for me means NOT taking a transaction. There's no chance of losing money once I am not on the market.
By Way of Example , I use discretion when I decide not to take a pinbar at EUR/USD at 8 a.m. EST, on a Non-Farm Payroll Friday. The majority of the time, I find discretion keeps me OUT of difficulty, not gets me . Is a fantastic commerce missed by me every once in a while? You bet I do. That's life. And that my life has more to it than trading....so it happens.
The only way to acquire time is to find an advantage, stick to the rules that give you that advantage, have belief in that system and exploit it.
I believe that a border is born through probability. If you can prove that
something happens more frequently than not, within an acceptably long period of
time, with precision then maybe, just maybe you might have discovered one.
I agree - however you put way too much thought into this. Price does one of two things....goes up or down. It can go , but only for so long....trading should be easy. Thank God it's.
It us who create it challenging.
Method Theory.
O.k. so now you know where my mentality is I'm going to tell you how I'm attempting to trade.
I say attempting because this system needs considerable refinement.
What I need is your comments to see whether its worth me chasing this idea or not
I assume this system is truly an offspring in the James16 thread so much credit is due there.
It basically uses price action in the form of pinbars to trigger transactions.
A pinbar shows price being refused form a support resistance line.
James16 adopts this price action along with outside pubs and double bar
high/lows with a lower/higher near, strives to weave in some other reasons to take the transaction like fib levels, moving averages etc., and then uses
discretion to make the trade.
I believe that this method works but am not convinced about particular facets of it. Mainly the moving averages and also the frequency of transactions.
There are some of us, myself included, which NEVER use moving averages. In fact, I do not think it helps one way or the other. James and I disagree on that region of the system. But truth be told, my chart have nothing greater than S/R lines. That's all I need.
But, make them of the obvious, significant ones. Weekly ones, daily ones. S/R traces onto a 15 minute chart rarely mean anything.
I suggest you can use any m.a. value you need from 1 to 1000, at any stage
its likely to look relevent into something. And man, I must be really impatient or something but transactions are so infrequent on the daily timeframe that I cant
stand this, and it would take much more time to prove it.
You impatience will charge you money, and a lot of it if you're not careful.
Maybe this is a big weakness for me, maybe this technique will gravitate to the lengthier tf's, however when there's any way potential of navigating the volatile waters of the H1 then id like to try. As I mentioned earlier, scalping has its own advantages
You seriously should begin with weekly and daily. Trust me, after a month or two of yields, you won't require the excitement of trades. But if you can not do it on a daily chart, there's no way you'll be able to do it on a 1 hour chart.
I think that the main thing which I do not like is the discretion facet of it. I really
feel far more comfortable with quantifiable conclusions, would be any more
successfull attempting to hand select trades than I'd trading what that met my quantifiable parameters? This is what im trying to find out.
Beyond that discretion I mentioned earlier with massive news announcements coming out, discretion is in factn't that large of an issue in my opinion. Bear in mind , you can't HAVE to be at the market.
As a rule of thumb , I take every pinbar that is on S/R lines. do they work? No. However, a majority of these do. That majority of these gives more than others ones (winners ) take. That's all you're trying to do....earn more than you lose.
Even when you only are up 10 percent for the year - you're doing better than 90% of the traders out there. You cannot put pressure on to create 2% everyday. Sometimes there simply is not anything worth becoming involved in. Or other instances, there's too much happening in our lives to care....
Remember: TRADE TO LIVE....NOT LIVE TO TRADE.