This is a concept that I've been researching. It's a product of what I've learnt
and that which I think to be true so far in my journey into forex.
I have not traded live however and will not do so until I can continue to keep a demo account
heading for a while. I've discovered this very hard as I don't seem to be in a position to
stick to some rules.
I've discovered that this and quite a few different things about myself so far and
have been trying to develop a system based on my own character, beliefs and
lifestyle.
Please remember that these are my beliefs and thoughts.
They alter and develop all of the time and in no way am I asking you to agree. Please remark and critisize.
My thought process has been as follows.
BELIEFS
I've read a lot of information about pretty much everything at FF and have tried to distill from it a couple of truths concerning forex (if there are any)
This is what I am left with.
The one thing that price seems to respect are significant amounts, whether you call such service, resistance, PPZ's, previous highds/lows.
Price reacts to these but its pretty hard to predict how, will it rebound or
break?
Smaller time frames expose themselves to the sound of forex and also the costs (disperse ) become more significant. On the other hand if this may be managed scalping can have a number of benefits, mainly that of developing your account faster.
Trends are excellent but they can and usually do end as soon as you combine them.
Peope say let your winners run and cut winners brief, how do you understand a
winner? , you predict the future.
The weakest point of any method is human intervention or emotions, wether it be flexing your money management rules or'understanding' were the price is about.
I think a different word for'discretion' is'imagining'. If you can not measure any component of your sytem it's basically guesswork.
Don't get me wrong, some traders are very good and cosistent guessers - im not.
The only way to win time is to find an advantage, stick to the rules which give you that advantage, have belief in that system then exploit it.
I feel that a border is born through probability. If you are able to prove that
something happens more frequently than not, over an acceptably long period of
period, with accuracy then maybe, just maybe you may have discovered one.
Method Theory.
O.k. so you now understand where my mindset is I'm going to tell you how I'm trying to exchange.
I say trying because this system requires considerable refinement.
What I want is the remarks to see if its worth me pursuing this thought or not
I assume this system is actually an offspring out of the James16 thread much credit is due there.
It basically uses price action in the kind of pinbars to trigger trades.
A pinbar reveals price being rejected form a service resistance line.
James16 adopts this price action along with outdoor pubs and double pub
high/lows with a lower/higher near, strives to weave in several other reasons to select the trade such as fib levels, moving averages etc. and then utilizes
discretion to make the trade.
I feel that this method works but am not convinced about particular aspects of it. Mainly the moving averages and the frequency of trades.
I suggest you can use any m.a. value you want from 1 to 1000, at any stage
its going to look relevent into something. And man, I should be really something or impatient but trades are so rare on the daily timeframe that I cant
stand it, and it would take even more time to prove it.
Maybe this is a big weakness for me, maybe this method may gravitate to the longer tf's, however when there is any way potential of navigating the volatile waters of the H1 then id like to try. As I said previously, scalping has its own advantages
I think that the primary thing that I don't like is that the discretion facet of it. I really
feel much more comfortable with quantifiable decisions, would be any more
successfull trying to hand pick trades than I would trading everything that met my specs that are quantifiable? This is.
Indior
I am only using one indior also it's attached to this post. It's the
PriceAction AHA 0_2 by hua ai.
I have it set up to simply recognise snare formations. I really don't like staring at the
screen because that's were the discretion creeps in. When the indior
alarms, I go into the screen and see if a trap pub has formed
This indior is adjustable but it seems to have a mind of it's personal.
I've tried to examine the code but cant work it out. Some times it misses out hooks which could have been sccussful and there are ways that I would like to change its behavior.
So when a pin is shaped I put on the open of the next candle and place my stoploss at the top or bottom of ther pin. The TP is then put an equal distance away.
Its as simple as that. There is not anything to consider besides if the snare is
big enough.
What I mean by that is, as the SL and TP get smaller, the spread becomes
significant and lessens the risk reward to unacceptable levels.
Basically every pair with its spread ahs a minimal size pub that I will exchange
before it becoimes too risky.
Just using this very fundamental system in backtests it has shown to have a
win/loss ratio of 2:1 or 70% with a risk benefit of no less than 1: 3/4
This really is for many timeframes H1 and over and uses around 100 sets of data in each evaluation
I've yet to find a pair or period which does anything less than break even.
I've thought about other TP levels but what I want is a 100% accurate backtest which I could do visually with a set tp.
There might be many ways to progress this method:
Define and measure what makes a fantastic pin pub, and be in a position to input these factors to an indior/ea
back test with these factors to discover the most favourable conditions
Dont know about filters - don't really wish to get right into MACD RSI etc I think the ease of this system is the secret.
Heres a chart to show what I am doing and then the last 10 times on e/u H1
Incidentally does anybody have any guidance on submitting charts, this is new to me and its hard to know what dimensions to use. Does everybody use paint to indicate them? How do I paste them to my article
Reply With Quote
