Systems help. . .but like I told Hanvoer. . .this is not any platform for TA. . .its all about a MM system...
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Systems help. . .but like I told Hanvoer. . .this is not any platform for TA. . .its all about a MM system...
And not pussies quit posting....its Sunday. . .you don't have SHIT to do. . .unless go to Church. . .then I would know. .
A DEBATE....does not stop since you need water...a tampon....or for you to study the BS you're trying to say!
Also.. .if you're likely to give numbers, figures....percents....fractions....do the math on the page....
SHOW YOUR WORK! ....this is middle school for a few....make sure you do it off the NUMBERS I provide not your personal amounts....just to establish a point. . .then you'll be able to present your number of precisely the same PERIOD....TIMEFRAME....ETC....LATER...
I cant resist saying something but a process is merely a range trading system. If price ever goes beyond that range then you're cooked. For example I detect 10 levels being chucked around. If you reenter a trade every 100 pips your trading range then becomes 1000 pips. If price goes 1000 pips and does not perform a retrace of 100 pips to make it work prosper Bye Bye account. If you set it in 200 pips then your range is 2000 pips.You require a 200 pip retrace within 2000 pips for it to work.
The issue with martingale is that. You either will have a pair that is too volatile and will not stay inside the range of the martingale set OR it isn't volatile enough to retrace the number of pips to receive even trade breaks. Either way that is the way martingale systems fail.... Volatile for the range or not volatile enough during a range to return to break even. Sooner or later the market will soon over proceed beyond the range of the system OR it won't move enough inside the range of the machine to work.
So the conclusion is, yes it will work and yes it'll work for a very long period of time but sooner or after price action will proceed in such a way to defeat the machine. In case you have traded long enough to profit and then take profits out of the account then you may make it profitable. Should you leave the profits in and keep raising the account then sooner or after the range will get beat.
I believe people do know. The most important thing is that a person either believes in textbook risk management, or he (or she) does not.
Markets are vulnerable to political and economic events: government intervention, wars, terrorist attacks, whatever. On Sept 10, 2001, an individual it is impossible that the world trade centre will ever be ruined, since it has never happened before. Who would have thought what subsequently happened? Occasions like 9/11 can have a aclysmic effect on financial markets.
That I live in NZ. Christchurch had never experienced earthquakes prior to 2011, however, the devastating ramifications of each'quake over the last several months (more than 250 people expired ) had an immediate influence on the NZD, and the sharemarket here. NZ is merely a small country (population ~4 million), but the damage moved into the http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/chri...illion-4482971.
We live in troubled financial times. If I may generalize greed, leverage and the belief that a paper debt isn't real among banks has created a domino effect that's resulted in worldwide recession.
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At some point in history, there would have been a very first time that EU moved gt;200 pips each day. Prior to this day, you could have said it is impossible for EU to move more than 200 pips each day, since it has never happened before. After this event, you state EU will never go more than 300 pips per day.... Until that happens. And so Forth.
I've submitted this http://grailtrading.blogspot.co.nz/ before. It's the fascinating story of a group of experienced traders who assembled an EA made to turn #10,000 into #1,000,000 at a brief space of time. If I recall correctly, it took their account to gt; #100,000 (1,000% profit ) in 40 months, and then slowly imploded over a span of 4 months. It was not a martingale, although apparently had some MM designed to accelerate recovery. However, what interests me most is their conclusion as to the reason why it failed: Those of you who backtest systems wont like this. Most believe that a few months or just a year is long enough to check. It is not. Our evaluation, even nearly 4 years of it with 800 trades of which 20 percent were actual - was not enough. .... Also my message to you and the lesson here is that however much you examine, however far you go back there will be a market condition your evaluation doesn't have. Next time it may be 7 doji's even or together 17. We don't know. The market ranges have got much smaller - the range for cable had been nearly 170 pips per day 05 06 had been 140ish and this year has managed 110. But go to the early 90's and you'll see ranges which will cause you to sweat just by looking.
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For folk who don't have a positive expectancy trading system, then MMs enjoy martingale provide them the opportunity to make money from forex, for as long as the'passing sequence' does not occur. And it may not occur throughout the course of the trading life. However, I would call that gambling rather than trading; your view may differ. It's merely after all.
However a trader with a positive anticipation system has two options: he could either take the identical approach as I've just explained , or he could grind out a living in a fixed 1% (or whatever) risk per transaction. Sure, by performing the latter, he could likewise encounter a'spine swan' chain of trades where the number of losses exceeds the number of wins with a massive sum, resulting in irretrievable drawdown (but one may reasonably ask whether he had a EV system at the first place). However, the point is his risk management buys him time. If he's 20 losses he's down only 20 percent, and he could re-evaluate his strategy, with 80% of his account undamaged. Whereas the martingale trader is not likely to survive 20 consecutive losses (unless his starting position size is little to the point the commensurately tiny returns make the entire exercise pointless).
When you have a EV trading system (i.e. one which yields positive pips( using constant sizing), then there is no need for one to take unnecessary risk.
A risk model must reflect not merely the likelihood of an event occurring, but also the extent of the harm, if a'worst case' event does happen to occur. There is a personal dimension to this. By way of example, if a trader has a tiny portion his net worth in his trading account, then a blown account may not mean disaster justifying more competitive MM.
Like I stated at the beginning, you either believe in risk management, or you don't. You can either (1) move on the basis that certain occasion (s) are so unlikely that you can safely ignore them, or (2) take steps required to insure yourself against themand without detrimentally affecting your EV. If you feel comfortable trading the martingale since you feel that can not possibly happen in the future, that's fair enough. It's your decision, and your money.
I understand what you are saying....but clear that thought from your head for only a minute. This isn't about range trading or fad trading...You wouldn't want to use a 200 pip SL to get a more compact TP. . .as I said in the past posts. . .you only want at 1:1 risk to reward.
We all know for a fact. . .that a pair has to earn a new high or low at some point. Of course there are a number of times where the pair does not violate the high or low. There are a number of days that the high and the low were broken....but that the simple fact remains the same...a new high or low have to be made.
With this said..you do not find an integral level for your SL working with a fold low. . .using some of the or that the ATR. . .you find your SL based off your TP. . .which are the high or low. . .since we all know for true that it will be at some stage.
[quote;6139818]People who know me understand I am all for thinking outside the box. I use multi level trading and have a hit ratio of winners. So you will see I am interested in new concepts that think outside the box. So I will be interested in the topic, I just found this thread. Since in the event that you have solved the issue of martingale moving out its range I am all ears on this one.
What exactly are you discussing? Moving outside of what range....and that is what you want....Every pair....on any TF....has to make a new high or new low. . .it could be on the M1. . .M5....M15. . .M30 etc.. .
So why are you thinking about only trading in a range....or worried about something staying inside a range. . .think about it breaking up the range...
Give me a couple of posts of dumping the normal martingale thinking. I will get what your trying to state but it may take some time to me. So keep teaching I'll try my best to understand the concept.
What's the normal martingale thinking?
What I am trying to inform people is straightforward. . .you can use martingale and do so profitably but you have to use real cash management and understand how many trades each interval you'll have.
You can not just say lets risk 1% or all your entire account balance and don't have any clue about where price goes....That is why everyone says martingale won't and cannot work....because they don't have any clue on how best to trade, actual cash management and they don't know or see the facts of their markets.
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