Expectancy Management

[Alexandra]

Hello everyone!

Recently I searched FF for risk management. It returned 99 pages of results. I read one by one the 250 first articles. 248 of them were rather about cash management. I found only two of them were actually about risk management. One is made of a single pole of not answered questions. The second is one page and the previous post is about position sizing; understand money managment.

Either risk management is so trivial it goes without mentioning or it's the most overlooked element of trading in FF.

I am sure that risk management is much more than just placing a SL another side of the preceding swing. Since risk management is confused with cash management I picked another title to prevent any confusion. I composed a PDF where I examine, on a purely probabilistic point of view, different transaction managements to see how they perform generally. Do not be afraid to verify the equations! After a dozen proof readings I may have missed something...

I believe this is only scratching the surface. I wish that this will begin an edued discussion. Unless it expires prior to the second page...
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachment...1912050622.pdf

[sipk1990]

Hello everybody! Recently I searched FF for risk management. It returned 99 pages of results. I read one by one the 250 first articles. 248 of these were about money management. I found only two of these were actually about risk management. One is made from a single pole of not answered queries. The next is one page and the previous article is all about position sizing; know money managment. Either risk management is really trivial it goes without mentioning or it is the most overlooked part of trading in FF. I am certain that risk management is considerably...

This decision is wrong.
It asumes that in all 3 cases p is exactly the same value. Nonetheless, it is not, as with accepting partial profits and trailling stop ( second and third instance ) you increse de (win rate)value.
Math and trading are two different things.

EDIT:
I noticed that in 3 minutes, so it looks like a fancy mathematics, but the writer of the PDF is very poor mathematician.

EDIT2:
Bad - so much trouble with such a rookie mistake in the formulation.

[Alexandra]

Thanks for criticizing following 3 seconds. I'm not a native English speaker. Perhaps I couldn't compose in a way to convey the ideas. There's no assumption about the likelihood being the value. No assumption it is known or continuous. No assumption about its distribution. I'm a computer scientist not a mathematician. Regardless of the proof reading there could be some errors. Please show me the rookie mistake from the formulation and I will fix the document.

[sipk1990]

quote Can you describe with more of a structured theory rather than simple ranting/trolling conjecture: 1 ). The conclusions are all wrong. 2. How p-values are changed with accepting partial profits. 3. Are orthogonal interests why you're saying trading and math. Attempt to be constructive and add value. Describe why you believe things are right or wrong.

I clarified with the charts in my last few posts yesterday at the similar topics.