thread: My thoughts

Hi ,

This is my very first post, and I don't foresee myself becoming a regular poster (though I wouldn't bet against it ). Nevertheless, I've learned a great deal from this location and also the realizations that it's helped elucidate, I felt it incumbent upon myself to discuss a few of the a number of my Profession beliefs.

As with any good disclaimer, please be aware these are my views, and that many may find failure or success doing drastically different things. I'm by no means making egorical statements, but merely expounding on a few of my market customs. Some may find them some may find them helpful, and some may find them absurd. Additionally, I'm interested in sharing my systems, or some of the specific methods that I use. As with most aspects of life, I find it very gratifying to help steer motivated folks to workable sources of information which will favorably affect their learning, however very much resent doing the job for them.

I believe it is not possible to ever'predict' the movements of the market. Its funny, when folks ask me something similar to what do you believe the dollar is going to do in whatever time period, I say I have no idea. This sometimes causes people to look at me with disbelief, presumably wondering how someone who seemingly has such remarkable returns understands so little about what the market can perform. Ironically, it was very realization - and figuring out how to the way interpret that into a practicable, mechanical structure - which lent the kind of profitability which I desired. And this is a statement that many, many traders would disagree with, and that's exactly why I believe that the vast majority fail to make substantial money, and why the analysts look wrong almost as frequently as they're right. When you first see that particular technical trading setups move a particular direction more frequently than not, you start to believe that any setup WILL or SHOULD proceed in that direction, instead of that it merely has a marginally higher than xpercent chance of moving in that direction. It's a key distinction that most traders - including many great technical men I have known, who are able to expertly read the complexities of price movements, and who occasionally even give theoretical lipservice to these very concepts - neglect to substantively understand, or at least effectively put into practice.

It's ultimately about ego. So many get caught up in trying to be so smart with their charts and indiors, in an attempt to win all of the time. I certainty did myself, revelling in my winning trades and chastising myself for the losers. I should have seen the resistance at 1.3729, and it was clearly breaking out of the trendline, espechially once I draw it like this. How could I've missed that variable - I will never make that mistake again. This, however, implicitly assumes you're somehow responsible for this loss; which you were actually in control of what the market was likely to do. It's a dangerous mindset to have, and one which is sadly born from the equally instrumental realization which you may really earn money from trading the market. I think the basic tool of drawing a support or resistance line on a chart is potentially hazardous, as its precise placement is truly so random, but as soon as you put it there it suddenly sounds so authoritative - like a constraint that you have craly imposed upon the market. I prefer to OBSERVE concepts like support and resistance in the functioning of my systems, instead of trading based on my imperfect, random, and absolutely biased understanding of the specific placements. Unlike many traders, I do not even establish targets for transactions, because I think that even that would be calling. I exit the trade reactively when the market tells me . It might be at a large profit, a small profit, breakeven, or a small reduction - and I couldn't care less about which it ends up to be on any given trade; only the statistical outcome within many, many transactions is within the appropriate range. Among the shrewdest statements I heard on this is that the only way to make a million dollars in trading (rather than investing) would be to make 10 million dollars and shed 9 million dollars (in concept, at leastsome of you may well be making 10 million and losing only 8, or 7, or 6.2...)

In essence, one could view this as a discussion between reactive and proactive modes of thinking. In most - if not most - regions of life, proactive behaviors are rewarded. CEOs and heads of industry are generally educated people - decision makers who exercise control over their situations and environments. It's the reactive folks that society generally doesn't benefit: the guy who waits for life to present him a chance instead of actively trying to make one. I myself am a control freak - a characteristic which served me well in life before I encountered the insanity of the markets. I wanted so desperately to control them - to be smart, to be right, to triumph, to see that the complexities in a movement others'foolishly' overlooked and bask in the ensuing accolades - and almost drove myself crazy in the process. My closing advice is not to do this, though I think it's almost an inevitability of the learning process - I'm forever envious of those that don't need to experience this, or who can somehow consistantly profit from it. In short, it's knowing that randomness and making money from the market aren't almost as mutually exclusive as it might intuitively seem. To the diversified'buy and hold' men as to many an active trader, they're seemingly incommensurable opinions - but I've discovered it is an entire surrender to the randomness of any one trade which allows for a grounded assurance in a statistically significant outcome over many instances.

Best of luck,

Chris

Thank you for your tremendous post. I realized what I am doing.


Also thanks to Hanover for directing me to this thread.

We need more posters of this quality. Even Hanover has stopped active posting. Sad

Its funny, when people ask me something like what do you think the dollar will do in whatever period of time, I always say that I have no idea. This sometimes causes people to look at me with disbelief, presumably wondering how a person who apparently has such impressive returns knows so little about what the market may do. Ironically, it was that very realization - and figuring out how to the way translate that into a practicable, mechanical format - that finally afforded the type of profitability that I desired. And this is an announcement that many,...

Many of these themes and more are covered in the subsequent video interview with trading coach Mark Douglas from the Mind Over Market interview.
Quoting Mark Douglas from the interview about the mental errors he's referring to... The mental errors are the result of believing, believing or assuming that the technical technique is telling us exactly what will happen next on a trade by trade basis. Not understanding that specialized methods are not supposed to do that! . Technical methods and patterns are designed to place the likelihood of success in our favor OVER A SERIES OF TRADES. Perhaps it doesn't seem like it on the surface, however there are some profound plogical impliions here. What this means is, the result generated by any specialized method, on a trade by trade basis, are Unique and Random! To put it differently, there is no way to know beforehand what the result of any specific signal is going to be, or exactly what the sequence of wins or losses will be within a succession of trades.

Consequently the weighted coin case he spoke about in the video. I hope this helps some fellow traders just as much as it's helped me.

Inserted Video

Im glad I didnt come across this earlier when I believed the same manner.

I believe that is really a losing mentality. The market can easily be predicted.

There are a lot of misconceptions here. One is that intuition (the placing of horizontal support and resistance lines) and the impression that an s/r lineup is put properly relies on self and, and that it is not possible to do this accurately without being biased. Instead of accepting that the market isn't random, folks instead praise the market for allowing their commerce to enter profitability. They should rather be devoting their unconscious intuition and skills, which have nothing to do with luck or even being consciously aware of how your brain speaks the language of this market (after expertise ).

You only hijack yourself whether you think luck is part of this game. It isn't. The market is very very predictable. Call it my intuition

It beats me how one trades without prediction. Why one goes long if not calling price has more opportunity for down?

Nevertheless trading on technical has some particulars, for example low profit ratio, and that is why plogically extremely hard. So, one needs some sort of prayer to stay sane.

I dont understand why some folks Say Market is Unpredictable? !!!
I Saw some Men which were Willing Predict Market 100%,to this Guys Think Market is Unpredictable, you might not think That Big Boys Lose this Market?
If Market is Unpredictable then Price transfer? Price move Bcuase of boys Due to Major market Makers But not of Our Tiny Positions.

it disturbs me how one transactions without prediction. Why one would go long if not predicting price has more opportunity for upward than down? However trading on technical has some specifics, for example reduced win ratio, and that is the reason why plogically exceptionally hard. So, one requires some kind of prayer to remain sane.

I figure they are creating a mindset that makes trading plogically easy. They're fooling themselves although if they think that they are not predicting, with higher probability according to their expertise, in which the market will go. They are furthermore kidding themselves if they think the market is arbitrary.

The ability they ought to be developing should concentrate on the essence of the problem, not on a general theme. The essence of the problem is that people develop trading methods that are only profitable if they have expertise with certain kinds of price action. Either they need to alter their trading system (and still keep it profitable of course!) , or else they ought to concentrate on recognizing when and where they have seen that kind of price action. Then they are going to learn there is nothing arbitrary about their achievement. In these moments of recognition, in which the market isnt precisely the same but is recognized as the same nonetheless (according to unconscious criteria), they ought to understand that their mind has developed a method of itself to supplement their trading method that wouldnt achieve success without expertise (similar price action, according to anything they have been observing)

I figure to others it's also a method of creating themselves as a person. However, development and skill should eventually be separated when it comes to Foreign Exchange! They are not dependent on each other! If you don't receive fiscal freedom from Foreign Exchange, then I guess that makes growth and spending some time with friends and family easier!

quote I figure they're creating a mentality that makes trading plogically simple. They are fooling themselves although if they believe they aren't calling, with higher probability according to their expertise, in which the market will go. They are furthermore kidding themselves if they believe the market is random. The skill they need to be developing should focus on the essence of the problem, not on an overall theme. The essence of the challenge is that people develop trading methods that are only profitable when they have expertise with specific...

Everything needs is to spot when to use what method. Even the easiest TL break on 5m chart is monster in certain market conditions. To get high win ratio one needs to position in his/her own corner of the market. That is when one feels in your home and know what to use and if with higher amount of conviction.