66950Just checking. Your discussion above appeared to indie something else. Fantastic trading to you!
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66950Just checking. Your discussion above appeared to indie something else. Fantastic trading to you!
66950The world has changed a bit. They're based on several dealing platforms, but on most ECN's they are traded. I mean, what is the distinction between derived/traded whenever someone sells G/J big in an ECN, and the working banks adjust both G/U and U/J consequently (thus the derived influences the majors in this case, not the other way around)?
BTW, E/J isn't a derived pair anymore for quite a while (due to Japanese companies doing business in Europe, that makes a pure market).
And it does not even matter if it's synthetic or not. It all matters if you can exchange it or not. In the securities market statistical arbitrage is about locating co-integrated synthetic baskets. The don't see themselves because synthetics are traded by them.
66950That's probably because you misunderstood what I was saying about the way I use the crosses.
Good trading for you as well.
66950I think following condition make today motion:
1. Today is 1st day of yearly. The market won't operate to far. Breakout place the sennt for this month.
2. Best sky of euro, cable are new highs - resistance.
3. Friday US nfp is now coming. A lot of bank's models are waiting for this information to work management bias out.
The genuine fundamental drivers under market are often top company secret of big guys. They never talk about before a tendency jog within 2/3 course. Then, they spoke, all media spoke, and they're ready to exit. This can be fx fundamental running manner in years and years. Actually, men that are big control and manage press well, differently, their positions may be jeopardy.
They can give out some little news A to push market a bit, then. Give another little news B to push back market.
What's the fundy drivers that big men use to bid euro or bid usd at moment? Top secret !!! It may be within DarkStar's new book.
One is convinced we'll know after this tendency complete in future.
66950Thanks Adal for this information. I'm interested to construct a EA to perform HFT. Before, I believe HFT commerce to bid and then trade every single bars when price jump and move. HFT can be employed in quiet time. Can you mean session's 4 hours? Or after London close US later session 4 hours?
66950Hey Guys,
Just wanted to voice my ideas up to now over using an Order flow mindset.
One thing which has become apparent from this thread is knowing who the participants are knowing how they operate and on what basis they operate. I believe that alot of these are offering a support or are speculative or maybe even both. Another thought is that the support offering participants are the ones who are time Dependant ie They have to do a trade instantly, whereas the participants can time there entries a bit more precisely.
From both groups I'd say the risky traders being hedge funds financial funds etc would be the hardest ones to try and sniper there order flow. The reason for this is because I believe these kind of participants view what a currency is value in a number of ways.
Now moving on to the participants that merely offer you a support of currency . These participants operate as an intermediary between Multi also there and national companies debts. One of these could be the case like Darkstar utilized in his Style of Forex brokers thread.
Quote:
The guy who buys a shiny new Eclipse more then likely will pay for it with US Dollars. Unfortunately Mitsubishi's factory workers in Japan should get their paychecks so at a certain point a conversion has to be made.
Darkstar cites these kind of support providers by stating.
Quote:
The lion's share of Forex trades are done as a function of international enterprise.
If most Forex trades are done as a part of international business then my thinking is I need to focus on the participants supplying these solutions and the programs they operate on. As an instance when we knew when the dollars for Mitsubishi's employees pay cheques were being changed in the fx marketI could assess market conditions and base a commerce on what impact that will have on price. Thinking along the same lines it simple to come up with countless motives for transactions similar to these is enormous. So from my study it seems that I need to be focusing on those participants that are making transactions as a function of enterprise. Listed below are a few names I am starting to look in:
Travelex
Moneycorp
HiFX
Worldfirst Uk Ltd
My next step would be to try and find out when and how these businesses are producing there trades and also by which approaches (Spot,Forward) and also the timescale that they have to create them. I can break in to there workplaces I don't believe that could help! If I do wind up discovering this information there'll be several if not hundreds of egies. I am starting to find the Technical analysis fallacy at a light and it's making me wonder a lot of systems within forum. There is a reason for every price movement in each market and that motive is Order Flow not a chart!
If anyone has ideas similar to mine please talk. Many hands make light work.
Best of luck,
James.
66950Many bank-to-corp transactions are done with forwards. The banks then hedge the risk of that through an offsetting position in place. This is the reason why discussions about notional quantity are horribly.
To give you an example of the procedure... Mitsubishi needs to lock in an exchange rate for a 1m payroll 30 times out. They contract with Bank A to get a 1m 30 day. Bank A does not want to hold the risk, so that they hedge the forward with a place transaction with Bank B. Bank B is a market maker and they do not want to hold it . Subsequently it's offered around ECN Broker C in which Speculator D presumes the risk. The 1m in interest would became $3m in quantity.
So yeah a majority of forex transactions are a part of international business, but that's only because a majority of notional transaction volume is artificial.
To deal with your larger question/assertion: although its true that business transactions are a large portion of the quantity, that does not necessarily signify they're a large driver of price shift. At the end of the day there was just $1m in transaction requirement, so just $1m in liquidity will be swallowed. Without a reference point for how large this transaction is in comparison to the remainder of the market, it is not possible to estimate how large the effect would be, but I believe in most situations the price impact of business orders would be tiny.
You can confirm this for yourself by scanning IFR for large commercial need and watching the price effect as that need is filled.
66950I was meaning that they trade short term - nearly all orders are below 4 hours, and the majority of them under 10 minutes.
Sorry to bring some bad news to you, however for HFT you want at least a million dollars to invest on programmers, trading and infrastructure account. For example, they use 10 Gigabit network cards which cost over $3.000.
66950I believe that is what they refer to as the inter-dealer Hot Potato effect in micro-structure studies.
They could also only attempt to fit it off against another customer with the an opposing direction of the exact same deal, I guess similar to a MM broker manages there books on the smaller transaction sizes, fitting off clients.
Glad to hear that the book is in completing touches DS.
66950Darkstar,
Thanks for your response and glad to listen to your books nearly finished, hope my name remains on the list. After reading your answer it becomes evident that I must start to concentrate on the larger corporate transactions. Grkfx's assignment was to learn what happened to this GBPUSD on the 1st March 2010 and 1st June 2010. Heres what I discovered.
1st March 2010.
Britain's Prudential will buy AIG's Asian arm for $35.5 billion at the insurance industry's biggest deal , helping the bailed-out U.S. group refund a big chunk of its taxpayer debt. (Ibtimes)
Speculation Britain could revive its strength buying programme, following the Bank of England said last week it may take such a measure if the economic prognosis worsened, continued to weigh the pound along with expectations of a sterling outflow from Prudential's (PRU.L) buy of this Asian component of AIG (AIG.N). (Reuters)
1st June 2010.
Sterling created a comeback against the US dollar now on speculation of an impending announcement in the Prudential it is abandoning its AIA takeover.
Prospects of this bargain being called off saw the Pru price jump 6 percent to 572p, and sterling rise to $1.459, from $1.450, since the currency was buoyed by demand from global investors needing to buy the UK insurer's shares. (Guardian)
HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) -- UK insurer Prudential has abandoned its plan to buy AIG's Asian lifestyle unit for $35.5 billion, leaving direction under fire along with the company facing a $659 million bill for collapse.
Prudential's move to drop out was widely anticipated after bailed-out U.S. giant American International Group refused to cut the price, turning down a last-ditch effort by Britain's largest insurer to appease shareholder concerns.
”We listened attentively to shareholders over the price and initiated a renegotiation of the terms with AIG. Regrettably, it hasn't been possible to reach agreement,” Prudential's chairman, Harvey McGrath, said in a statement.
”We're consequently withdrawing from the trade.” Http://blogs.reuters.com/clara-ferreira-marques/
These will be the size of transactions we will need to be aiming to rise on the rear of, as I am fairly certain market impact couldn't be prevented with a trade so large. The next issue to watch out for is how an order that dimension would have been made and we could have had pre warning relating to it. In these two cases it seems that the market began to move on speculation alone without a actual $35.5 Billion hit the market. Buy on rumor Sell on news surely springs to mind.
Deals like the Prudential one above do not come around every day but is there sufficient large size corporate deals carried out daily to be able to trade off or are we as order flow traders only able to operate on the knowledge that there maybe massive orders placed in defense of alternative barriers and push them.
The more and more I feel that the longer I visit the chart becoming useless apart in reference purposes.
James.
Ps Darkstar if you need a proof reader allow me to know
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