Non-Predictive Trading -
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thread: Non-Predictive Trading

  1. #11
    Junior Member Carlttroro's Avatar
    1
    Hi guys, I actually have a robot which don't use any forecast logic or uses any indior. Screenshot shows my 3months result image
    Would you share the EA with us?

  2. #12
    quote Would you share the EA with us?
    Sure I could share. But I have some terms and condition that needs to be adhere to. Send me PM

  3. #13
    Junior Member crisjimenwz9's Avatar
    1
    'Trend Following' as a trading strategy will be among the most difficult egies mentally speaking, you will likely ever encounter as a trader.
    However, I believe that the time and effort to structure this type of technique is well worthwhile. The major problem with this method out of a trader's psychological perspective, is that we are all programmed to search for things such as support and resistance, fibs, patterns, etc.. The truth is that these'tools' are not any better than a 50/50 probability - for as many price moves will go through this resistance line as rebound off of it. As I've said many times, there are just too many'factors' included at a moving price for one of these items to be of any great value.

    In my opinion, there are only two methods to trade to increase your probability and both of them have been in direct contradiction to each other. One is to invent a method of trading'reversals' - yes, bottoms and tops in the event that you will. I realize this is frowned upon in the trading world but this allows you not only to buy at good prices but also provides a cushion for pullbacks and fundamental events during the price movement. Otherwise, all you're doing is'trading at the middle of the cash' and you wind up feeding the monetary institutions.

    The amount 2 method is that the point of our discussion - that is'mechanical' or as it is often known as Trend Following. Simply put, in this technique you structure a way for admissions (a trigger) that lets you take advantage of the more movements the market occasionally presents you with. Again, the psychological challenge here is to be more disciplined enough to follow your prescribed method rather than be affected by additional markers you see at the charts. I will tell you upfront that your accuracy percentage will probably be less than 50%. History shows us that the most renown traders in the world were only right 30 to 40% of the time. But they made more money on the 3 or 4 out of ten they won, compared to amount lost in the remaining 7 or 6. But as has been said, there aren't any forecasts or pre-determinations concerning where the price is going - you cared for all of that when you invented your mechanical method for trading.

    I recommend you select 1 method and become adept at it.

    There is in fact a third way - trading baskets (a kind of arbitrage). But we will save this discussion for a different time.

  4. #14
    Junior Member aoxliayG96's Avatar
    1
    Well, of course - there is a renowned egy for making trades without being worried about analysis. It is called'Martingale'. Simply stated, you double the amount of a trade after each loss. Mathematically, it is impossible to lose with this egy because each time you lose, by doubling the amount of the former trade, you may regain the loss in addition to the profit of this new commerce.

    You would need to bring some money management to your procedure, i.e. making a decision on HOW MUCH you may enable a trade to shed and HOW MUCH to let a trade continue when you are winning. People who trade 'binary' FX brokers are fond of the egy because the choice about HOW MUCH (to lose or to win) is predetermined at the time that the trade is initiated. In the end of a predetermined time, that you pick, there is either a win or a loss of a finite amount which the broker dictates prior to the trade is initiated.

    Now the BAD news:--LRB-

    Notice I said it is mathematically impossible to lose. In the actual world, there is a little problem with the math. If you double the amount of the previous loss and you own a string of losses, then the amount of each consecutive trade can become very large quite quickly - like astronomically large!

    Therefore, some believe that by starting with a tiny trade, in contrast with the whole amount of available investment funds, an individual should have the ability to pay enough losses in a row to conquer any probable amount of string of losses - WRONG. Even starting with a little trade of only $100 would transcend an initial investment funds of $5,000 after losing (and doubling the amount of the trade) 6 days in a row. If you believe you could bring $10,000 into the match and have the ability to continue through a string of double as many losses, sorry you'd exceed $10,000 after just 7 losses in a row. Do the math.

    But, here's a simple egy which can be employed without a indiors. It is challenging to trade it with greater than a 50% win ratio and it requires good money management to keep a profit: Place a pending buy order over the current price and also a pending sell order below the current price at the same moment.

    In a choppy market, this may whipsaw so much you will shed on virtually every trade as the price moves only enough to fulfill your trade and then bounces back to put you at a loss. The price must move further than the amount of the spread in addition to the commission in order to reach a profit.

    Money management is crucial - losses have to be controlled and kept to a small amount (probably 1 percent of your funding ). Trailing stops are the ideal way to preserve profits in a running profitable commerce, unless you can continually watch the market and possess the subject get from a trade when pullbacks occur and before the trade looses most of its gain.

    Should you paper trade this egy for a number of months, you will discover a lot about how a currency pair functions in various markets - even at different times of the day if you are likely to day commerce. You'll also start to see how just one or two basic indiors help you in knowing whether or not there is a good opportunity for a significant move in price.

    Utilizing nothing more than a moving average and (maybe) a basic indior such as RSI, MACD, or Stochastics, you will finally gain the abilities to fairly accurately understand the direction of this market. Also, observe the quantity in relation to the trend.

    But, again, money management will make the difference between losing or breaking even and having larger wins than losses.

  5. #15
    Junior Member frankarol's Avatar
    4
    Hi there,

    So I've basically found a lot of truths about forex these last couple of months that actually opened my eyes. The thing is, I've learned to disregard the use of indiors and whatnot but the one factor that truly makes sense to me would be the use of service and resistance. Consider it this way, when you draw confluence lines on your chart (it has to be accurate or it will not be successful!) , price ALWAYS must touch a particular point before it can proceed another path... So that you guys mentioned to pay no more attention to the previous statistics, which I concur because we won't ever know which way the market will go but won't using support and resistance produce some advantage or advantage?

    Regards.

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