I have been considering this for a while and while I can not say that I've read through every trading egy here on FF, what I have discovered during my years of expertise will be that in order to be real and lasting profits, you have to attune yourself to the Major Fundamental Events (MFE's) which set the trends-and then enter if price is most valuable.
When I refer to major fundamental events I'm not just referring to the monthly reports, though those may be used on the way. I'm referring to the major changes, which I will explain.
One thing before we start though-these MFE's may just happen a few times each year. That is OK, because these trades are going to yield 1000's of pips. One trade may last for weeks or even months.
Additionally, we are not at the start of an MFE now-we're in the center of one (dollar weakness).
As you might have guessed, an MFE could be (and usually is) initiated by the Fed although certain earth-shaking occasions (the Lehman bankruptcy, China's concern about Treasuries)) can certainly do the job. A few MFE's can occur because those are inclined to build strengthening the tendency, which is great.
The two keys for doing this successfully are as follows
1. You need to recognize when an MFE has occurred.
2. You need to understand how markets will be affected after the MFE has occurred and the correlations between the different asset egories (currencies, stocks, bonds and commodities).
The MFE we are in now started on March 15, the day of Bernanke's 60 Minutes interview in which he said the Fed was printing money. Go to this page: http://video.google.com/videosearch?...num=4ct=title# and watch the The Chairman Part 1 movie at approximately 8 minutes .
Today, I will tell you. Plenty of people were speaking about the Fed printing money but the Federal Reserve admitting it is an entirely different issue. The dollar bear market started in earnest from there, and you easily could have left 1000's of pips shorting the dollar against the euro, pound and A$ within a few weeks.
Today, I will tell you something else. Plenty of people have been debating me that Bernanke didn't reveal anything new because everybody was aware that the Fed had enlarged its balance sheet (qualitative or charge easing = money creation). Not one of the so-called specialists picked up on this and it was basically ignored from the Fiscal press.
To tell the truth, most specialists have very little clue about what they are doing when investing currency anyway and also the one's who do are highly unlikely to say anything unless they are speaking their own publiion. And don't forget, not one of the so-called specialists said anything about what would happen to the dollar after Lehman went bankrupt either including such luminaries as Jim Rogers who has been a dollar bear forever (and that got crushed in the 2008 commodity collapse).
The truth bear my idea out. Bernanke was definately an MFE since the dollar has gotten murdered since then. Did Bernanke proceed on 60 Minutes? Because the Fed to this point was completely not able to accomplish its goal of boosting stocks and generating some degree of inflation (making commodities more expensive) by weakening the dollar (to counter the a lot more dangerous deflationary impacts of the financial crisis) with all its previous balance sheet growth. The SP had left a low . No wonder might possibly fail, sending the market that is worldwide deep.
I will be writing plenty more about this and in the meantime-I welcome your remarks.