How To Make 1000s of Pips by NFX
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thread: How To Make 1000s of Pips by NFX

  1. #1

    How To Make 1000s of Pips by NFX

    I have been considering this for a while and while I can not say that I've read through every trading egy here on FF, what I have discovered during my years of expertise will be that in order to be real and lasting profits, you have to attune yourself to the Major Fundamental Events (MFE's) which set the trends-and then enter if price is most valuable.

    When I refer to major fundamental events I'm not just referring to the monthly reports, though those may be used on the way. I'm referring to the major changes, which I will explain.

    One thing before we start though-these MFE's may just happen a few times each year. That is OK, because these trades are going to yield 1000's of pips. One trade may last for weeks or even months.

    Additionally, we are not at the start of an MFE now-we're in the center of one (dollar weakness).

    As you might have guessed, an MFE could be (and usually is) initiated by the Fed although certain earth-shaking occasions (the Lehman bankruptcy, China's concern about Treasuries)) can certainly do the job. A few MFE's can occur because those are inclined to build strengthening the tendency, which is great.

    The two keys for doing this successfully are as follows

    1. You need to recognize when an MFE has occurred.

    2. You need to understand how markets will be affected after the MFE has occurred and the correlations between the different asset egories (currencies, stocks, bonds and commodities).

    The MFE we are in now started on March 15, the day of Bernanke's 60 Minutes interview in which he said the Fed was printing money. Go to this page: http://video.google.com/videosearch?...num=4ct=title# and watch the The Chairman Part 1 movie at approximately 8 minutes .

    Today, I will tell you. Plenty of people were speaking about the Fed printing money but the Federal Reserve admitting it is an entirely different issue. The dollar bear market started in earnest from there, and you easily could have left 1000's of pips shorting the dollar against the euro, pound and A$ within a few weeks.

    Today, I will tell you something else. Plenty of people have been debating me that Bernanke didn't reveal anything new because everybody was aware that the Fed had enlarged its balance sheet (qualitative or charge easing = money creation). Not one of the so-called specialists picked up on this and it was basically ignored from the Fiscal press.

    To tell the truth, most specialists have very little clue about what they are doing when investing currency anyway and also the one's who do are highly unlikely to say anything unless they are speaking their own publiion. And don't forget, not one of the so-called specialists said anything about what would happen to the dollar after Lehman went bankrupt either including such luminaries as Jim Rogers who has been a dollar bear forever (and that got crushed in the 2008 commodity collapse).

    The truth bear my idea out. Bernanke was definately an MFE since the dollar has gotten murdered since then. Did Bernanke proceed on 60 Minutes? Because the Fed to this point was completely not able to accomplish its goal of boosting stocks and generating some degree of inflation (making commodities more expensive) by weakening the dollar (to counter the a lot more dangerous deflationary impacts of the financial crisis) with all its previous balance sheet growth. The SP had left a low . No wonder might possibly fail, sending the market that is worldwide deep.

    I will be writing plenty more about this and in the meantime-I welcome your remarks.

  2. #2
    I enjoy the dollar to gain over the next month or so vs. the euro, pound and A$; the U.S. just can't afford the higher bond rates that is why we've heard so much recent talk about inflation remaining subdued over the medium term.

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  3. #3
    I see the Fed cutting back on some lending facilities as a indiion that states are improving. That amounts to be great for equities/commodities and bad for your dollar.

  4. #4
    Junior Member Gabriel_3_33's Avatar
    20
    Sorry if this response already exists somewhere - here it is - with all this money being created by our Government Inflation , eventually, crush the piss from our Dollar? Sending its value ? Andwhere did those quadrillions of Dollars go we all lost-who has them now?

  5. #5
    Junior Member m0fletipks's Avatar
    25
    Sorry if this response already exists somewhere - here it is - with all this money being made by our Government, wont Inflation, finally, crush the stink out of our Dollar? Sending its worth west? And- where did all those quadrillions of Dollars go we all lost-who has them?
    The dollar has already lost a crapload of worth since they let go of their gold standard in the 70's and allow the currency float. In fact this is reflected in the increase of prices on important commodities such as food and gold. The reason the dollar hasn't fallen in value relative to other currencies around the world is a result of exactly the identical thing - their Central Banks are also printing cash out of thin air and provide increasing liquidity in the market too. What's worse, these Central Banks around the planet manipulate the market anytime they see fit.

    Ultimately, when trading in the forex market, we must take into account all these factors to arrive at a really sensible forecast. We don't have the information around such as the insiders do. If we did, we ordinary people should be rich by now. .

  6. #6
    As far as the statement is concerned, the main thing is that the language concerning the threat of deflation was taken away.

    April 29: In light of increasing economic slack here and overseas, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation might persist for some time below rates that foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

    Today: The prices of electricity and other commodities have risen of late. However resource slack is very likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for a while.

    The language on rates was the same:. . .economic states are very likely to justify exceptionally lower levels of the federal funds rate for an elongated period.

    They are not extending their Treasury purchase plan and their plan for MBS stays the same.

    I really don't see an MFE here.

  7. #7
    Junior Member m0fletipks's Avatar
    25
    As far as the statement is concerned, the main issue is the language regarding the threat of deflation was removed.

    April 29: In light of increasing economic downturn here and overseas, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. The Committee sees some risk that inflation can last for a while under rates that foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

    Today: The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost...
    NTFX I have shorted the USDCAD and created a long using all the AUDUSD pairs. Seeing the FED didn't raise interest rates and they will still stick to their own plan to purchase $1.3 trillion worth of trades from the close of the year ($300 billion by the end of August), was I right with my conclusion or was that a boneaheaded effort on my character? I'm trading after all. .

  8. #8
    I am not looking at any trades currently Sniper. I think it's a time to trade since there's no apparent strong fundamental driver.

    For the time being, the markets seem to remain in a mostly sideways pattern which may border slowly down or up but in any event, the swings will be too unpredictable.

  9. #9
    This can be important: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=adnPkNhlJaSs

    Here is the sort of information that could spark a decent rally in equity markets, so I would look to short the dollar on that basis.

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  10. #10
    Junior Member Verokicadayzn's Avatar
    9
    Why so sure for brief? Isn't it mixed even if rumor is true?

    Less money print will recover value for dollar,
    but long term recovery will discharge buy pressure of dollar for risk aversion.

    That really is significant: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=adnPkNhlJaSs

    Here is the kind of information that could ignite a decent rally so I would look to short the dollar.

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