Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals
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Thread: Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

  1. #1

    Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

    I am a chartist in mind - those that know me however also know that I do follow the 'fundies' to some level - I mean, c'mon, dangling a narrative on top of some solid technical analysis is comforting, just like my downward slippers which have been brought out the cupboard already with all the cold Central Oregon mornings lately. That being said, my comment below are seeing recent remarks from Treasury Secretary Paulson:

    Normally there are so many comments every day from experts, police officers, you would have to be a linguist or an expert in spotting BS in order to generate sense of that, let alone make transactions from it.

    However, Treasury Secretary Paulson nevertheless might not have been more apparent in his recent remarks thus adding some clarity to what has been extravagant and volatile outlooks.

    Paulson suggested that the current market turmoil will last longer than the 1998 crisis. There have been government sources indiing that the sub prime drop out will take two years to deal with. Paulson made apparent that the current crisis has very little to do with central banks conducting too tight liquidity requirements.

    Thus, the problem of wide credit spreads and dis-functioning money markets will not be solved with the addition of central bank liquidity. Liquidity adds just ease the signs of the crisis.

    Therefore think about the equity market rally, constructed on hopes of the Fed taking bold actions by cutting interest rates by 50 bp's following Tuesday, as early. If the market doesn't receive a rate cut, expect weaker equity markets and a solid return to carry trade unwinding - i.e. lower USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;

    *unpacks bags*

    *assesses internet for alternatives*

    Off to Dubai it is then!
    Damn, stay away! We got here.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Same thing as the past couple of months though, no idea how contained or dismissed this all can stay so long as the machine keeps handing itself saving paper around and around. .

    But hey - I am the chart guy anyhow, I do not understand how this works either way =-RRB-

    But I do not mind learning
    We are in precisely the exact same boat, simply pulling on diffrent oars Fundamentals are really up in the air atm, especially as new skeletons come out of the cupboard, so the real battle is on the chart lines.

    BTW - do not worry about the tax entity in Canada, that's just the top marginal rate. And it has to be balanced against benefits, which can be:

    1)better beer (assuming you are in the US)
    2)free medical attention, so you can get drunk, fall down, crack your skull, and still no worries....
    3)good social guie, so that when you blow off your account you can still go out for 1), do 2), and still have no worries....

    Also keep in mind that no less than Mark Twain remarked that Cad women were the loveliest in the world. That place is getting a bit old.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    3)good social guie, so that when you blow your account you can still go out for 1), do 2), and have no worries....
    Partial to Molson Brador, once I could get, which isn't often. So my head is safe.

  5. #5
    Now WHAT ABOUT THAT testimony?

    A bunch of gentlemen creating serious faces pretenting to know that a matter they haven't any clue what's about being commented by 3 gentlemen pretending they've the entire situation figured out.

    Moral Hazard? MORAL HAZARD? What the hell is that? As Paulson said throughout the testimony we do not actually know how to define moral hazard

    For some misterious conclusion, dollar went down and fulled my own euro longs and that has been my week already. Taking any trades for me after this Great week could be ... a moral hazard

  6. #6
    Just wanted to upgrade - I think it was the IKB I referred to in my last post.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Sticking to losses abroad -- caused by investments when the German bank IKB imploded two weeks ago, it was disclosed that they had about $17 billion in subprime exposure and had lost $3 billion. IKB held these assets at a conduit, which is a version of a special-purpose thing that banks use to possess credit. More to the point, conduits are financed in the commercial-paper market. Therefore, in addition to credit risk, it sounds to me as if they're borrowing short and lending long, which is dangerous when your assets are illiquid.

    Also I rather think in Elliot Waves inducing the climbing in EURUSD (they give pretty goshdarn precise entries(20-30 pip stop) if one is so fortunate enough to learn where to search for setups) than in anybody's speech. (alternatively I'll go with interest rate hikes to come still and buffer left at the return curve versus a cutting fed, i.e. interest rates and long term egies of banks, anything really, not silly day to day newswire firing-outs of one liners, ch-eye headlines and we all want someone to click us we create our daily fluffefefefef because many people seem to crave it..that sort of things is actually tiring in the long run..every chart tick gets pre-and post-explained by every column onto the cables ever printed sometimes it sounds. . .wheat and chaff, the way to tell in that sort of environment?)

    Even the Commerzbank seems to use it to state 1.4130 was an EW target.
    Well, nothing better than attempting to decipher news articles and whatnot(I try, oh I try..but I guess I remain a sinner)...I just finished reading three moneycentral articles, which subsequently stated

    1. Http:// guy called Satyajit Das who's seemingly in a dire need to market his book and thus is doom and gloomin' up it madly in almost any interview)

    2. Http:// (FreddiFannie hand-in-hand solution / Bush mortgage bailout, along with the subtle hints of come watch the author of this article LIVE! At our cash show! Did we mention the names of THESE FIVE GREAT BARGAIN STOCK SHARE NAMES!!?!!??! Let us repeat 'em once more!)


    4. Pick any other arbitrary article picking among the two to flip-flop involving

    5. Meantime the charts do their own thing(yea yea, do not bash me for always advertisements charts, my point is: whether the roadshow advertisements and inventory spam flood reports can not decide on which headline will cause most readers this week around, the charts actually try to reflect reality, whatever sick, twisted and to me incomprehensible reasoning is attempting to hide behind it. In the event the' truth is tough to come by in the first place AND you are surrounded by reporters who report names attempting to seem capable, who to the eye can't be of any use in the event 1. The trustworthyness of this author is undetermined and 2. The opportunity for a judgement and evaluation if he were/is is still lt; 100% and 3. Any new mini-event, decision and speech can completely overrule the latter 2? Charts in turn upgrade reality at least around once every other moment, are unwavering in their history and even when faking out they are still doing it for/to everyone alike...I am simply not smart enough to get more than that I am starting to fear. . .or maybe not capable to be complied to be able to find the/stage. . .and that is saying something given the way I chart lol)


    But actually I just wanted to mention the bank I meant was the IBK one.

    (P.S. my compassion for anybody not only needing but needing to sort through all those reports in the first place - the one thing I can imagine being more annoying than not knowing who to anticipate is already knowing so and knowing better and then STILL needing to read the most evident blatant misgivings/lie/BS/misinterpretations/opposite of economics logic 101 you have ever seen day to day. .)

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Now WHAT ABOUT THAT testimony?

    A lot of gentlemen making serious faces pretenting to understand a matter they have no clue what's about being commented by 3 gentlemen pretending they have the whole situation figured out.

    Moral Hazard? MORAL HAZARD? What the hell is that? As Paulson said throughout the testimony we do not really know how to define moral hazard

    For many misterious conclusion, dollar went down and fulled my euro longs which was my week. Taking any trades for me following this Wonderful week would be ... a moral hazard
    I am kinda partial to moral hazards myself
    BTW, it's almost like you can follow the progress of the hearings about the euro charts, it keeps rising while people begin to realize that there may be difficulty in the offing, and they fall asleep

  8. #8
    Yeah these fed finance probabilities are the primary thing that make me believe I might be wrong here. But I find some comfort knowing that that fed fund futures were wrong (for example 2 months behind) that the ENTIRE time that the fed was raising rates in the most recent cycle. The bias on those contracts seems to be for reduced rates.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    some thing about trading brings out the skeptic in us
    Oh yeah. Says who? :

  10. #10
    Fed inspired Love and Hate... Here, there and everywhere...

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