Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals - Page 7
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Thread: Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I owe everything I ever did to skepticism, then business determination. The skeptic in you is the friend, don't you believe?
    I am a true believer in disbelief

    BTW - that I would be very skeptical of your Thomas Mann quote. At least it dodn't work for me...

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    great post dave!

    I am among the few who doesnt think the fed will reduce rates. The inadequate employment report made me second guess this concept, but I return to my senses.

    My argument relies on one thing... the fed has not given the signal yet. The other day I made remarks that were similar in wade's story.

    After studying bernanke's book Inflation Targeting (twice now) I am left with the impression that bernanke does not like to create responsive movements, and that each rate movement will be signaled long before the move is made.

    These are extraordinary times, so I wouldnt be so surprised to see a cut weekly. But I am still leaning toward no cut.
    Not lowering rates at this point would cause too much upheaval in international equity markets so on this basis I feel the reduction is a done deal although there is no doubt that Bernanke would like to not. Much will depend on the statement; if it's dovish I would expect a positive equity reaction and that means carry trade writhing. Going forward, there are numerous important indiions pointing towards a U.S. recession and that is going to lead to the dollar gaining quite a bit vs the high yielders (euro 1.30?) And vs the Yen.

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Not lowering rates at this stage would create an excessive amount of upheaval in global equity markets so on that basis I feel the reduction is a lot
    however wouldnt a dovish statement have the exact same impact as lowering rates? And since when is bernanke worried about the equity markets? Last time I checked the fed's assignment was to control inflation, not assist greedy investors LOL

  4. #64
    Btw, why im on this signal is just like there is a cut idea because perception is really reality. Take inflation for instance. . .the fed is every bit concerned about inflation expectations as they are accurate inflation! Perception is all about, bernanke is a huge believer in that.

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    but wouldnt that a dovish statement have the exact same impact as lowering rates? And since when is bernanke worried about the equity markets? Last time I checked that the fed's mission was to restrain inflation, maybe not assist greedy traders LOL
    The fed notes traders expectations in the minutes so that they must be looking in them. Should they hold rates and difficulty a statement it won't be equity markets tanking, the entire ABCP and interbank lending market will go nuts.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    but wouldnt a dovish announcement have the same impact as lowering rates? And since when is bernanke concerned about the equity markets? Last time I checked the fed's mission was to restrain inflation, not help greedy investors LOL
    I really don't think so because they have issued a dovish announcement back on Aug 17. The fed has a mandate to restrain inflation and to promote growth. They'll feature the rate cut as focusing on the risks to increase.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    As for ccy pairs; I guess my safest bet is still USD/CAD, only because the US is a power glutton, Cad has lots of it (both oil and power); to some large extent Canada has solved the problem of Medicare (big potential for disaster there in the US with all the elections heating up), a budget surplus, a greater reliance on commodity exports, etc., etc.. Downside risk of course is that the US is currently the biggest trading partner of Cad, down any difficulty in the states will find it's way north. .
    This sooo makes me desire to go to Canada right now

    Your take on England sounds stressing and I think you are right about the Eurozone things - there has been a few backstage upheaval about the EUR thing, but largely from Sarkozy. Have not kept up to date on that however.
    Last I heard even though we all know the we're largely an exporting country myth which in turns appears to need weak EURUSD, there has been no real clamoring except by the usual politicians hoping to play with the we can't compete with auto sales valued in JPY at this EURJPY rate card to acquire some small folks nods. . .not that anything matters are said by the politicians.

    Trichet and the ECB are called on to truly stay vigilant and keep the real problems in focus and I'm curious as to what the neighborhood response will be later on about this entire mess. . .as you said, more people have dallied in this entire poisonous CDO mess than like to acknowledge and one of our major credit funding institutionathingies basically had to step in for a branch of a bank thing or alternative (lacking both the english words and the facts here, read the short article some time back) in order not to have it collapse beneath this entire mortgage wreck. A lot of more local banks also put their money into it...

    same matter as the past few months however, no thought how comprised or ignored this all can stay so long as the machine keeps handing itself saving paper around and around. .

    But hey - I'm the chart man anyhow, I don't understand how this all works way =-RRB-

    But I don't mind learning

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    This sooo makes me want to move to Canada right now
    Don't forget the 50% tax rate that you'll be paying to reside.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Do not forget the 50% tax rate which you're going to be paying to reside there.

    *unpacks luggage*

    *checks internet for options*

    Away to Dubai it is then!

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