Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals -
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thread: Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

  1. #41
    Member ars1j's Avatar
    44
    Then, uhm, don't be short?

    The charts showed setups ahead of the FOMC which were tradeable(submitted one over from the James16 thread e.g.).
    Or more simply: don't trade the FOMC, trade the following week.

    Is it our fault hedge fund managers can not trade worth crap and can just follow tendencies by looking at 200 period MAs?

    I'd like to reference FXJarhead's signature: PPPPP.

  2. #42
    Subsequently, uhm, don't be short?

    The charts revealed setups before the FOMC that were tradeable(submitted one over in the James16 thread e.g.).
    Or more simply: don't exchange the FOMC, commerce the subsequent week.

    Could it be our fault hedge fund managers can't trade worth crap and can just follow tendencies by staring at 200 period MAs?

    I want to reference FXJarhead's signature: PPPPP.
    Um, this thread is all about funnymentals - not chart setups. Doesn't mean that you can't speak charts. However, you appear to have an axe to grind against us cable theaders. Take it out to the market.

  3. #43
    Um, this thread is all about funnymentals - maybe not chart setups. Does not mean that you can't talk charts. However, you seem to have an axe to grind against us cable theaders. Take it out on the market.
    Well, this is becoming awfully common across this forum. You open a thread to go over X, first come the guys saying Y rules LOL....

    I opened a thread on Monday to explore possible trades/pairs for its rate announcement outcome
    - All I got was I?m not trading this madness type of article

    Another evening I opened up a thread on a scientific subject, which was cited previously in Al Gore's book.
    - First article was stop reading Gore's garbage

    I seldom find a thread survives the 1st page within the opening subject here.

    Dyslexia, probably. :

  4. #44
    Member ars1j's Avatar
    44
    Um, this thread is all about funnymentals - not chart setups. Doesn't mean you can't speak charts. However, you seem to have an axe to cable theaders. Take it out to the market.
    I composed hedge fund managers and referred to the cnbc article. . .where's the cable thread?

    Though I wouldn't advoe the dwell newstrading with 20 pip spread fun etc that happened over there DURING that the FOMC, if that's what you mean?

    That I'll constantly grind an axe against, as it's a surefire way of losing cash, no prob.

    As for fundamentals and charts - Dave, the AUTHOR of THIS thread said
    trade the charts in the interim
    .


    Therefore please, no nonsense.

    As for exactly what fundamental players could have done before FOMC to be positioned right I do not know, but I also don't understand what would have caused them to become short in the first place, either way.

    Edited the previous article to never even quote and the guide, perhaps that helps the paranoia.

  5. #45

    I wrote ....


    .... paranoia.
    Whatever

  6. #46
    1/2 purpose of fed funds AND discount - surprised to say the least. You slice it anyway you like - good for market or what the hell do they see that left them do this?

    Trade the charts in the interim
    Great question; so just a small ramble here. Don't hesitate to shoot any or all down it....

    I think they're aiming primarily at reducing ST risk of more credit-related collapses. Saw now from the WSJ a brief note in the Heard on the Street column which indies how widespread vulnerability to CDO's are (the lead was about Smucker's, a popular NA jam jelly manufacturer). It seems all sorts of companies are holding off these the books rather than parking money in the MM; the extent of the holdings actually isn't known. However, if companies that hold these can't offload them fast to meet cash requirements, you can end up in big trouble very fast. These firms ( up to Microsoft) say that they just are holding very large grade paper, but given what's happened over the last two months, those grades are quite dubious, to say the least...

    And the challenge is international; I looked in the 2006 annual report for Northern Rock, and an interesting anomaly poked upward - in 2005 their vulnerability to derivatives was approximately 600 million; in 2006, approximately 3.5 times. 2007 - who knows? I would presume these are what's causing the issue.

    As for ccy pairs; I guess that my safest bet remains USD/CAD, only because the US is a power glutton, Cad has lots of it (both oil and electricity); to a large extent Canada has solved the issue of Medicare (big potential for disaster there in the US with all the elections heating up), a budget surplus, a greater reliance on commodity exports, etc., etc.. Downside risk of course is that the US is the largest trading partner of Cad, any trouble down in the nations will find it's way north. .

    GBP/USD - I think that one is in trouble; the BoE has opened a massive can of worms by guarenteeing the safety of retail banking capital; it's both local and international impliions - from complaints from farmers who aren't completely protected financially from an outbreak of hoof mouth (even though it may have been because of a gov't lab's mistake), to the EU, that is looking into the legality of the BoE's action. To say nothing of that in a poor case scenario it equates to the UK running the printing presses at full rate....

    Eur/USD? Don't know, there was sound this morning from Germany - the economic engine of the EU - with a Euro. But that's a pretty mixed message; that they appeared to be fine with it final week. Their export market to the US is poorer than say Canada (because Cad is pushed by basics - food, gas, even shelter via timber copper), while maybe Europe's only has one major basic (sex - via vehicles, wine, natty clothes ). Sorry. . Anyhow, politics in the Eu is going to be as big an issue as it is currently in the States, as well as also the risks there (French strain. That the euro strength, immigration, Russia's resurgence, even Belgian Flemish/Walloon problems) all contribute to the pot. . .Of course on the side are dull but important things like machines orders for China

    USD/JPY - well, on a capital account basis, that pair should be well under 100. However, given the lurking demons in its banking industry, its aging population, the rise of Chinese competition w/r to the manufacture of mid-to-high superior goods, they actually appear to have little choice but to keep the ccy feeble. It's also manipulated to say anything sensible about...

  7. #47
    Member ars1j's Avatar
    44
    I have burnt in this market so many times exactly for the reasons I said. You accept the trade, and browse, browse, read, plan, egy, egy, wait. Plus it goes the other way around because of gossips rumours and...
    Then simply exchange what you see, not what you believe?

    And the simple fact that futures are pricing in matters with deadpan certainty will be sweet - to either side.

    The chart will show all. (just HAD to post that in a FA thread mehehe)

    But intriguing to understand that FA speculation seems so similiar to TA, just that rather than if this key s/r provides, then... turns out if he says this, but highlights that and then somebody else reacts accordingly, but doesn't... ;p


    Still favor seeing chart ticks over media conferences

    @Dave I will be interested to see if the world takes that require more time to solve thing for a sign to start devaluing the USD long term(well, it has already done that for decades, but you understand what I mean. .) . . .jacko has a scary view there even short term (1.45 EURUSD)

    Soon I will be able to buy Atlanta with spare change!

  8. #48
    Junior Member hamzaFaris's Avatar
    21
    Don't worry Dave, won't yell at you... Plus if you've got a wife she's likely doing the task for us, no need for further aggravation. I am no fan of complex fundamental analysis, however, analysts do set the stage and that's part of how I trade. In reality, asked the perfect question: now that everybody is expecting (or speaking about) a rate cut, how different is that from a surprise?

    Well, I think that the first response to any powerful news is always the same - good interest good for dollar, bad interest bad for dollar. However, the setting is what determines the ultimate direction(the huge pips). It's only when the heavy money realizes that the cut came to help a particular problem in the economy, which the remainder of America (can you say R-E-T-A-I-L) is doing pretty darn good, that the dollar will strengthen. We have fallen from them before, my view is that than it is now the USD is going to be more powerful in a few months time and are at historic highs.

    That choice day will probably be interesting for certain. I am staying the hell out preferrably at a hurricane shelter

  9. #49
    This is what I meant yesterday, and it is on the roads...

    How Large a Rate Cut? </b>CNBC senior economic correspondent Steve Liesman has been telling us that it is beginning to look like a half-point rate cut is possible if the Fed meets next Tuesday, upwards from the quarter-point cut the market was expecting. A growing number of traders we talk to say that they also observe a half-point cut coming to the target fed funds rate.


    Kudlow detected last night that the markets are currently setting up to get a 50-basis-point cut off the 5.25% fed funds rate. If they cut by 50 basis points, stocks go up and will test the old highs. If it's only 25 points, then the market will return, '' he explained.

    Supply CNBC

  10. #50
    Junior Member alexml22's Avatar
    23
    This is what I meant yesterday here, and it's about the roads already...

    How Big a Rate Cut? </b>CNBC senior economic correspondent Steve Liesman has been telling us that it's beginning to look like a half-point rate cut is possible when the Fed meets next Tuesday, upwards from the quarter-point cut the market had been expecting. More and more traders we talk to say they observe a cut coming to the target fed funds rate.


    Kudlow detected last night which the markets are now setting up to get a 50-basis-point cut off the 5.25% fed funds rate. If they cut 50 basis points, stocks will test the old highs and move up. When it's just 25 points, the market will return, '' he explained.

    Supply CNBC
    Steve Liesman - Journalism Major from Columbia without a trading experience - hmmm, just not seeing the worth of his analysis.

    Sorry guys/gals - been in this biz as long, I get a little jaded at times together with the press/media.

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