javizmendi
08-25-2005, 05:47 AM
Apart from the current market, there are loads of different items that keep us modest daily. Among these is humor and the intellect of the readers of the novel. Here is a good illuion of exactly what I mean.
Yesterday's topic pertained to the continuing and tight correlation between the British pound and crude petroleum. Among our most astute readers (it's always humbling to know there are many individuals on the planet that are that far smarter than you) reacted with this tidbit which you may find intriguing:
”I have sometimes wondered if maybe oil could possibly be taking the money disciplinary function that golden played in history. Like golden once was, it's considered valuable, it is tactical to financial prowess and each country's security, and fungible. And there appears to be small, if any, excess capacity to a economy that is developing. Oil might be the sole option powerful enough to wage battle. Black gold could possibly be the new gold{}”
From the weekly graph below, it is possible to observe how gold, and the dollar have behaved relative to one another. What stands out on the graph is that the mid-2000 into 2001 that is late period. It represented the meltdown of the fiscal shell game in America--and ending to the ”net startups will obsolete the remainder of the world” dream. The Nasdaq's passing culminated in an entire and actual dilemma for Mr. Consumer. This was the cue for Uncle Al and Co. to acquire active decreasing that Fed Funds rate. ”Deflation on those shores we won't have,” appeared the mantra.
Well, the Fed group staved off deflation--as commonly described, because of successful free cash at 1 percent. This new age of Fed lodging ushered in a new subject, I believe coined by Jim Grant: ”Out with up and paper with things.” For Mr. Grant, wise beyond creativity, realized Fed largess may not appear in standard inflation amounts--but the actual inflation could arrive in the shape of commodities--that the cash had to go someplace. And if the stock exchange is not free money's recipientthings it is! (Investors were somewhat chased after viewing their Nasdaq portfolio evaporate; clearly Dow 36,000 is on hold.)
Therefore, the ”age of material” has been great for primitive, gold, property, aluminum, zinc, etc.. However, as we all know, age's come and go--but ”it is different now” with crude oil, they all state. Hmmm...that term rings all too familiar...
The difference this time is Peak Oil. Well, possibly. It is reasonable. The simple fact that God endowed the ground having the most primitive in the worst economic hotspots around the world likely increases the equation (man likely had something to do with a few of those problems also). However, we do not have time, nor will your editor have thickness, to enter issue with any amount of satisfaction. So let us stick to this ”age of things” as it pertains to the financial side.
On the financial side, we've got one chief variable to work together: Fed Funds. Why? The US Fed appears to become the world's defacto bank, if the world likes it or not.
The queries, to which we haven't an answer, are: To what level is this movement in primitive a financial phenomenon? Sure, the Fed movement has been a alyst for expansion. But just how much of the movement in ”stuff,” rather than only crude petroleum, was cash sloshing around in the setup that convenient and found residence and contributed to some self-feeding cost rally with rationales connected to warrant stated rally on the way?
Ahh...Once more everything leads to more questions. But we do understand the lodging of the Fed is currently ending. We don't know the effect on stuff.
”Everything's got a moral, if you're able to just discover it.”
Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland
Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/forex1508827838.doc
Yesterday's topic pertained to the continuing and tight correlation between the British pound and crude petroleum. Among our most astute readers (it's always humbling to know there are many individuals on the planet that are that far smarter than you) reacted with this tidbit which you may find intriguing:
”I have sometimes wondered if maybe oil could possibly be taking the money disciplinary function that golden played in history. Like golden once was, it's considered valuable, it is tactical to financial prowess and each country's security, and fungible. And there appears to be small, if any, excess capacity to a economy that is developing. Oil might be the sole option powerful enough to wage battle. Black gold could possibly be the new gold{}”
From the weekly graph below, it is possible to observe how gold, and the dollar have behaved relative to one another. What stands out on the graph is that the mid-2000 into 2001 that is late period. It represented the meltdown of the fiscal shell game in America--and ending to the ”net startups will obsolete the remainder of the world” dream. The Nasdaq's passing culminated in an entire and actual dilemma for Mr. Consumer. This was the cue for Uncle Al and Co. to acquire active decreasing that Fed Funds rate. ”Deflation on those shores we won't have,” appeared the mantra.
Well, the Fed group staved off deflation--as commonly described, because of successful free cash at 1 percent. This new age of Fed lodging ushered in a new subject, I believe coined by Jim Grant: ”Out with up and paper with things.” For Mr. Grant, wise beyond creativity, realized Fed largess may not appear in standard inflation amounts--but the actual inflation could arrive in the shape of commodities--that the cash had to go someplace. And if the stock exchange is not free money's recipientthings it is! (Investors were somewhat chased after viewing their Nasdaq portfolio evaporate; clearly Dow 36,000 is on hold.)
Therefore, the ”age of material” has been great for primitive, gold, property, aluminum, zinc, etc.. However, as we all know, age's come and go--but ”it is different now” with crude oil, they all state. Hmmm...that term rings all too familiar...
The difference this time is Peak Oil. Well, possibly. It is reasonable. The simple fact that God endowed the ground having the most primitive in the worst economic hotspots around the world likely increases the equation (man likely had something to do with a few of those problems also). However, we do not have time, nor will your editor have thickness, to enter issue with any amount of satisfaction. So let us stick to this ”age of things” as it pertains to the financial side.
On the financial side, we've got one chief variable to work together: Fed Funds. Why? The US Fed appears to become the world's defacto bank, if the world likes it or not.
The queries, to which we haven't an answer, are: To what level is this movement in primitive a financial phenomenon? Sure, the Fed movement has been a alyst for expansion. But just how much of the movement in ”stuff,” rather than only crude petroleum, was cash sloshing around in the setup that convenient and found residence and contributed to some self-feeding cost rally with rationales connected to warrant stated rally on the way?
Ahh...Once more everything leads to more questions. But we do understand the lodging of the Fed is currently ending. We don't know the effect on stuff.
”Everything's got a moral, if you're able to just discover it.”
Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland
Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/forex1508827838.doc