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View Full Version : Long-term dollar risks?



adridado
08-25-2005, 04:07 AM
Following trading and the durable goods data has been choppy, the dollar weakened. The dollar dropped to a low of 1.2275 and, following a rally into 1.2235 triggered in part by hedge-fund purchasing the dollar dropped back into 1.2270. Trading patterns in Asia were comparable using the dollar weakening to 1.2310 in ancient Europe on Thursday prior to a small recovery following the German IFO index.

The durable goods report listed a sharper fall than anticipated with orders decreasing 4.9percent in July following a revised 1.9percent boost in June. There was likewise a 3.2% inherent decrease in requests while non-defence capital goods orders dropped 7.3%. The fall did follow a string of reports that are powerful along with the market remains strong at this phase. The home data stayed strong with new home sales increasing 6.5percent to 1.41mn, demoning continuing power in the property industry. Confidence in the market should stay firm in the brief term and Fed Governor Moskow said that US interest rates would have to grow. There are considerable dangers to the market with a first focus on petroleum rates.

Oil prices bolstered attaining drops over the US$68 p/b degree in trading. Costs at this level will probably offer buck dangers. There'll be an increasing threat that the boost in power costs will damages business and consumer spending while headline inflation is going to be pushed upward. There's very likely to be market speculation within stagflation that might result in dollar declines and will often undermine the US moneyif there are substantial falls on Wall Street. There's evidence of several flows from Mexican and Native markets that will provide some aid. The consequences of a continuing growth in risk aversion won't be as benign for the buck.

Analysis provided by http://www.investica.co.uk